1、 Price trend

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China remained stable temporarily. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 2733.33 yuan / ton, down 6.82% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market temporarily stable, on October 16, the carbide commodity index was 71.62.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will be stable temporarily this week: the price of calcium carbide from ovicanon will be 2740 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which will be stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide will be 2760 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which will be stable as compared with the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia will be 2700 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2740 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2750 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 600 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 620 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of upstream raw materials and the general cost support have a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rose this week. The price of PVC increased by 3.45% from 6742.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6975.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 4.30% higher than the same period last year. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The price of calcium carbide will rise in late October.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 51828.33 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the beginning of the week, 10.46% year-on-year and 5.7% higher than the beginning of the year. Copper prices remain high in the near future.

Copper mine is still tight: with the gradual easing of the epidemic situation in Chile, Chile’s national copper industry has resumed production and projects suspended due to the epidemic situation, and copper output will continue to recover in the later stage. Chile’s copper production is expected to drop 1.2% to 5.718 million tons this year, and 5.824 million tons in 2021. As far as Peru is concerned, after entering September, the problem of road closure in Peru community has been solved, and copper mining in Peru has basically recovered from the impact of the epidemic. At present, it is in the peak stage of labor and capital negotiations in South American mines. Because of the dissatisfaction of miners with the new salary agreement, the risk of strike is rising in some mines. A labor agreement was signed between the Chilean copper Union and the mine, and the strike was avoided. However, the strike risk of Escondida copper mine has not been lifted, and Candelaria mine workers have started to strike on October 8, which has supported the copper price to some extent.

Copper output growth: China’s electrolytic copper production is expected to be 766900 tons in September, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a month on month increase of 2.2%. From January to September 2020, China’s electrolytic copper production will reach 6.468 million tons, up 0.5% year on year. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper in October will continue to maintain the growth trend, and the growth rate will be narrowed.

Downstream consumption: in September, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.524 million and 2.655 million respectively, up 19.1% and 17.4% month on month, and 14.1% and 12.9% year-on-year. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 16.957 million and 17.116 million, down 6.7% and 6.9% year-on-year. Compared with January August, the decrease rates were 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. In September, automobile production and sales achieved a stable growth.

In view of the above situation, China’s industrial production and demand have recovered steadily, the disturbance of Chile’s copper strike has not subsided, and the global inventory is still at a low level. After the end of September, copper prices perform slightly better, and it is expected that the short-term copper prices will maintain a more volatile pattern.

In the first ten days of October, the international crude oil price rose, but the domestic refined oil price adjustment was stranded, and the domestic product oil market price confidence was insufficient, and the product oil price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 11 was 5353 yuan / ton, down 0.36% from the beginning of the month; on October 11, the price of diesel oil was 4623 yuan / ton, down 0.93% from the beginning of the month.

More than 90% of crude oil production capacity has been stagnated due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico; Norwegian oil workers have gone on strike; Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of Arab light crude oil; and the EIA report at the beginning of the month showed that crude oil stocks fell by 1.98 million barrels last week. The positive will stimulate the rise of international oil prices. With the end of Norway’s oil workers’ strike and the increase of OPEC’s crude oil exports in September, the EIA reported on October 7 that the US crude oil inventory increased by 501000 barrels to 492.9 million barrels, which was far more than expected. International oil prices fell back. On the whole, the international crude oil price rose first and then fell slightly. In the first ten days of October, the price of WTI crude oil rose by 4.86%, while that of Brent crude oil rose by 4.69%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the overall demand of gasoline market is relatively stable. At present, it is still in the peak season. With the continuous outflow of bad news in the later period, the industry’s operation enthusiasm is not high. In addition, the domestic refined oil price adjustment is stranded, and the demand for replenishment after the festival has not improved, and the gasoline market price has risen. In terms of diesel, engineering infrastructure, logistics, autumn harvest and other links are still good for diesel consumption. Refinery shipment is good in the week. The current market is mainly affected by the impact of sufficient supply and refinery inventory reduction before the festival. On the whole, crude oil prices went up, and domestic refined oil price adjustment ran aground, which restrained the upward trend of domestic refined oil prices.

The daily load of the vacuum distillation unit is sufficient, which is about 74% of the daily load before the start-up of the refinery, which is relatively high compared with that before the start-up of the domestic refinery, which is about 74% of the daily load.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes: the blockade of some regions caused by the second epidemic in Europe is the biggest negative for the weak adjustment of the oil market, and the international crude oil market will continue to be under pressure; after the festival, the replenishment of the refined oil market will provide support for the demand of the refined oil market, and the price of the refined oil is expected to be stable and small.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of nitrile rubber rose sharply in September, with the price at 13583.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then rose to 15366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a substantial increase of 13.13% in the whole month. On September 30, the NBR commodity index was 72.37, which was 41.48% lower than 123.67 (2017-02-20), and 40.20% higher than the lowest point of 51.62 on March 8, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now).

The rise in raw material prices has supported NBR. The price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 5612 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the month was 6288 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 12.05%; the price of acrylonitrile rose sharply, with the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco at 8300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8650 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 4.22%.

The downstream demand increased, which supported NBR. Since September, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has become more serious, and the demand for medical gloves continues to increase, which forms a certain support for NBR. In addition, the resumption of production and work in various parts of China continues to increase, and the start-up of downstream rubber products has rebounded. The ex factory price of nitrile manufacturers went up all the way. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of nitrile n41 in Lanhua was increased from 12200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 13600 yuan / ton at the end of the month; the ex factory price of nitrile 1052 in Zhenjiang Nandi was increased from 15000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16400 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The ex factory price of nitrile increased significantly in September, and the offers of traders followed.

Aftermarket forecast: analysts from the business agency believe that, on the one hand, raw material prices are high and the cost support is obvious; on the other hand, the demand for gold, silver and ten is improved, and the demand side also has certain support. However, at present, the price of NBR is not small. It is expected that the price of NBR will remain high in the future, so it is difficult to rise sharply again.