Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of o-benzene was stable in October, and the market of o-benzene was temporarily stable. As of October 30, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene dropped in October, with an overall decline of 1.05% in October. The cost of o-benzene decreased and the driving force of o-benzene price rise weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price rose sharply in October, with an increase of 16.32%. The phthalic anhydride market rose, which was good for the o-benzene market, and the demand for o-benzene in the downstream was warmer, and the driving force for the price rise of o-phthalic anhydride was increased.

External offer

Commodity name quotation type port price date

O-xylene FOB Gulf of Mexico US $639.45/t 2020-10-23

O-xylene CFR China $560.00/t 2020-10-23

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $570.00/t 2020-10-23

O-xylene FOB Korea $535.00/t 2020-10-23

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $547.25/t 2020-10-23

O-xylene FOB US $644.96/t US $2020-10-16

O-xylene CFR China $555.00/t 2020-10-16

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $548.00/t 2020-10-16

O-xylene FOB Korea $530.00/t 2020-10-16

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $547.25/t 2020-10-16

Mexico Gulf of Mexico / US $669

O-xylene CFR China $554.00/t 2020-10-9

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $546.00/t 2020-10-9

O-xylene FOB Korea $530.00/t 2020-10-9

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $528.25/t 2020-10-9

O-xylene FOB US $622.91/t US $2020-10-2

O-xylene CFR China $540.00/t 2020-10-2

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $530.00/t 2020-10-2

O-xylene FOB Korea $520.00/t 2020-10-2

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $493.75/t 2020-10-2

It can be seen from the external price list that the external price of o-benzene fluctuates and rises, which is good for the domestic market of o-benzene, and the driving force of domestic o-benzene to rise is increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, in October, the price of mixed xylene of o-benzene raw material fell slightly, the cost of o-benzene decreased, and the price of o-benzene in external market rose, which supported the domestic o-xylene to a certain extent. The phthalic anhydride price rose sharply at the end of October, and the demand for o-xylene market recovered, and the driving force for the future market of o-benzene was increased. Generally speaking, the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is increased, and the price of o-benzene is expected to rise slightly in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 28th. The spot nickel price was 122766.67 yuan / ton, up 2.05% compared with the previous trading day, 7.94% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.75% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 119400 yuan, and the price rose sharply after the opening, closing at 125210 yuan, up 4.87%. LME3 nickel closed at US $16290, up 2.36%.

2、 Market analysis

Nickel Asia, the largest nickel ore producer and exporter in the Philippines, said on the 28th that it had suspended the operation of one of its four mines until November 10 after the outbreak of the new crown outbreak. This news comes out, cause the market to nickel ore supply worry, nickel price rises in response. In addition, due to the rainy season in the Philippines, the local nickel production and transportation are limited, and the domestic market has a strong willingness to support the price, and the shipholders are optimistic about the demand prospect of electrolytic nickel in the fourth quarter.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: the decrease of supply supports the strengthening of nickel price, and it is expected that the short-term nickel price will maintain a strong shock operation.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 27 was 43.07, up 1.18 points compared with yesterday, 56.93% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 57.88% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in October 2020

As shown in Figure 2, natural rubber futures and spot prices have been on the road since October, and continued to be strong on the 28th. Shanghai Rubber: on the 28th, Shanghai Rubber had a strong opening and easy trading. The 01 contract closed at 16535 yuan / ton, up 935 yuan / ton, up nearly 1000 yuan within the day, and the market was generally bullish. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 15262 yuan / ton on 28th, up 29.4% so far this month,. Among them, the mainstream quotation on 28th was 15262 yuan / ton, which was about 626 yuan / ton higher than that on 27 days, with a daily increase of 4.54%.

According to the survey conducted by business agencies, the tapping situation in Hainan and Yunnan, the main production areas of domestic rubber, is different. Hainan is suffering from continuous typhoons. Typhoon No.16 and No.17 have passed, typhoon No.18 is at the right time, and typhoon No.19 and No.20 are on the road. The strong wind and rain weather has seriously affected the production of Xinjiao. The weather in Yunnan is normal. Although the temperature is lower than that in previous years, tapping is normal. Because the rubber price has been rising for many days, and the price has reached the peak in two years, the long silent high price has boosted the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. After the latex is sent to the factory, there is not much work shipment, and the price is high. At present, the rubber price is at a high level, the market transaction is not much, and the price adjustment is frequent. Some of them are bullish and do not cover the market Out.

From the perspective of major global producers, the weather, epidemic situation and lack of labor have affected the supply of new gum seriously. Therefore, it is inevitable and certain to reduce the production of natural rubber. According to the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s gum output was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a month on month increase of 11.4%. From January to September, the total output of natural rubber was 426.5 thousand tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%. The annual production reduction is no longer a suspense, and the statistical data are very obvious. To make matters worse, many Southeast Asian countries are also suffering from typhoon and heavy rainfall, which has seriously affected the output of new rubber. Meanwhile, the rubber farmers and market traders are unable to cover their plate, which leads to the continuous rise of prices. According to Thailand on October 28, Nakorn tangavirapat, director of Thailand’s rubber administration, said that rubber production was reduced due to typhoon Sadr and heavy rainfall, and merchants and farmers hoarded rubber for profit, which made rubber price rise to 72 baht per kilogram in a week. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 80 baht / kg and affect the delivery of rubber futures.

In sharp contrast to this decrease in supply, the demand of downstream tire enterprises increased and the operating rate stabilized at more than 70%. For example, in Shandong Province, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 75.32%, slightly increased by 0.63% compared with last week and increased by 9.92% compared with the same period last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. Customs data show that in September, China’s tire export volume maintained double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, China’s economy has gradually recovered, and automobile production and sales are in large volume. In September, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 19.1% and 17.4% month on month, 14.1% and 12.8% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, tire production increased greatly. Domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum, and demand stimulation supported rubber price rise. At the same time, rubber price rose, increasing tire enterprises This month, Guizhou tire, aoles tire, Wanli tire, Fengshen tire, Shandong Zhongchuang tire, Fangxing rubber and other companies announced to adjust their tire product prices in October and November, with an increase range of 2-4%.

To sum up, the current natural rubber production reduction is not only inevitable, but also more severe in the recent typhoon and heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia and Hainan. It is not ruled out that the price of natural rubber will continue to rise rapidly due to the serious stock up in the supply side or trade links and the lack of market circulation. However, after a large upward rush for many consecutive days, the natural rubber price is likely to be adjusted by shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high cost pressure, the chloroform market in Shandong maintained stable operation. As of October 27, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 1850 yuan / ton, down 2.63% compared with the beginning of the month and 6.57% lower than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

440000 T / A in Jinling, Shandong Province

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Low load of 400000 tons / year in Luxi Chemical Industry

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year 70%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

At present, the overall performance of chloroform market is stable, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and the demand for chloroform is just insufficient. However, with the continuous increase of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost side of chloroform production enterprises is high, the enterprises are strongly interested in price support, and the market supply and demand game is strong. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Province is about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, methanol market is running at a high level with low market inventory. Downstream enterprises and traders are active in purchasing and operating strongly in a short period of time. At present, the liquid chlorine market is affected by the maintenance plan of main production enterprises, and the downstream and traders’ intention to prepare goods increases, and the market transaction is active, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm and upward. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the refrigerant market is weak and stable, the domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, traders are cautious to take goods, and the market is expected to weaken in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there is insufficient support for chloroform.

Analysts of methane chloride data from business society believe that at present, the domestic chloroform market is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and they hold a wait-and-see attitude towards chloroform. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the burden and reduce pressure, and it is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.

Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market of o-benzene is temporarily stable this week, and the quotation of o-benzene contract is stable. As of October 26, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

From the price trend chart of mixed xylene, it can be seen that the price of mixed xylene, raw material of o-xylene, fell by 0.56% this week, the cost of o-xylene decreased, the price of mixed xylene dropped in a volatile way, the pressure on the cost of o-xylene increased, and the driving force of o-xylene to rise was weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride market rebounded and rose, with the phthalic anhydride price rising by 1.32%. The phthalic anhydride market rose, which was good for the o-benzene market, and the downstream demand of o-phthalic anhydride recovered, and the o-phthalic acid price rose greatly.

Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at business club, the price of ortho benzene raw materials fell this week, while the downstream phthalic anhydride price rose and the plasticizer market declined. The rising momentum of o-benzene market weakened, the performance of o-benzene market weakened, and the o-benzene market remained stable temporarily.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6175.00 yuan / ton, while at the weekend, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6150.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.4%. The current price was down 0.61% month on month, and the current price was 4.28% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potassium carbonate market fell slightly. The trading atmosphere of the potassium carbonate market was not good, and the actual transaction volume was less. Generally speaking, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers was low, and the market was in the situation of oversupply. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride sales at the weekend is 2000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market price quoted by port traders in the near future is higher, but the transaction of new orders of downstream factories is not active, and the speed of shipment is relatively slow. The price of potassium carbonate is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

From October 19 to 23, 2020, the market price of crude benzene will go up. The ex factory price in North China will be at 2437.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2646.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 6.97%.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (East China) in October 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

October 9 3300 – 150

October 14 3350 + 50

October 16 3400 + 50

October 20 3500 + 100

October 22 3600 + 100

In October 2020, the price of pure benzene of Yangzi Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) will be lowered once and increased four times. As of October 16, the price will be 3600 yuan / ton.

The coking enterprises started well this week, and the fifth round of increase of coke fell to the ground this week, with a cumulative increase of 250 yuan / ton. The current profits of coking enterprises are relatively high, coupled with the recent lax environmental protection policies, the operating rate of enterprises is high, and the supply of crude benzene is sufficient. This week, the market trend of pure benzene is good, and the operating rate remains at 80%. After the festival, the pure benzene market is in the rising channel driven by the downstream styrene and the rising external market. Sinopec’s listing was raised twice on the 20th and 22nd, totaling 200 yuan / ton, and now it is 3600 yuan / ton. The crude benzol Market was boosted and trading was active. The bidding price of main production areas increased sharply this week, and the price of Shandong Province rose by about 230 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream demand, the comprehensive operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises decreased slightly this week and remained at about 55%. Some units entered the maintenance season, and the demand for crude benzene in some areas decreased slightly, and the overall demand was still good.

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that most of the good news in the pure benzene market is brought by styrene. The price of styrene is currently high, and the future market is expected to be dominated by high consolidation, and the pure benzene market will maintain consolidation next week. In addition, there are maintenance plans for some enterprises in the downstream hydrobenzene unit in the near future, so the demand for crude benzol has been reduced to some extent. It is expected that the crude benzene Market in the future will be mainly consolidated, and the downstream demand and the favorable impact of pure benzene will be focused on.

On October 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.03/barrel, down $1.67 or 4%. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.73 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.43 U.S. dollars. Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, mainly due to the negative US inventory data, the surge in the number of new cases of global epidemic, the slowing down of fuel demand and the expected rise in fuel demand.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) routinely released U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data. U.S. crude and distillate stocks fell last week, while gasoline inventories increased. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1 million barrels to 488.1 million barrels in the week ending October 16, in line with previous market expectations, data showed. However, Cushing’s crude oil inventory increased by 975000 barrels and crude oil processing capacity of US refineries decreased by 551000 barrels / day. The decline of crude oil processing capacity in the United States indicates that the production capacity affected by the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has not been restored in time, and the output has decreased significantly. On the contrary, gasoline inventory increased significantly, showing an increase of 1.9 million barrels to 227 million barrels. The market had previously estimated a decrease of 1.8 million barrels. The decline in US refineries’ production did not bring about the expected decline in gasoline inventories, but a substantial increase, indicating that the decline in demand was even greater. Affected by the bad news, the oil market quickly responded and fell.

While OPEC + is still sparing no effort to reduce production capacity, the implementation rate of production reduction in September of its Member States is as high as 102%. At the same time, it will continue to implement compensatory production reduction. The oil market is affected by the epidemic, and the demand continues to decline, making the OPEC + production reduction more thankless. Under the epidemic situation, the supply and demand of the oil market have to demand the balance point of supply and demand again. With the continuous growth of new cases, the market is firmly following the pace of demand. As of Tuesday, the world’s new crown infection cases have broken through the 40 million mark, and the blockade measures have been re implemented in some parts of Europe. This casts a shadow over the prospects for a recovery in fuel demand.

The Business Association believes that in the short term, the oil market will still be suppressed by demand, and the supply side will not benefit greatly. At present, OPEC + production reduction is still in accordance with the agreement reached before, and there is still no new policy trend at present. Moreover, the United States is in the middle of the general election, and there are great differences between the two parties in the implementation of the new fiscal stimulus policy. Considering comprehensively, oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong remained stable. As of October 21, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 1850 yuan / ton, down 2.63% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.78% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

440000 T / A in Jinling, Shandong Province

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year 70%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

At present, less than 60% of the domestic trichloromethane production enterprises are operating, the overall inventory in the industry is low, and the price of raw materials is still high, so the support from the supply side is good. However, the downstream refrigerant market has entered the off-season, the market starts on a low level, and the demand side supports chloroform insufficiently, and the supply-demand game is strong. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1850 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market was slightly higher due to the favorable factors such as overseas equipment maintenance and port continued to go to storage. At present, most traders ship at high prices, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, at present, it is about 1930 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is affected by the price reduction in the downstream market, and the price has declined slightly, but the overall price is still at a high level, and the market shipment situation is fair. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1000-1200 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the refrigerant market entered the off-season weak and stable operation, the market transaction was weak, and there was a lack of upward action in a short time; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the current domestic chloroform market is not started very high, the market inventory pressure is not big, and the manufacturers have good intention to raise prices. However, the demand in the downstream market is weak and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is aggravating, and it is expected that the domestic chloroform market will remain stable in a short period of time.

The domestic ethanol market continued to rise last week. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6375 yuan / ton on October 12, and 6525 yuan / ton on October 16, up 2.35% during the week, 5.45% on a month on month basis, and 20.83% higher on a year-on-year basis. The main reasons are as follows: the rising market of raw corn, the reduction of social inventory of equipment maintenance in some enterprises, the shortage of some downstream stock before and after the festival. In terms of market, as of today (10.19), the domestic ethanol market in East China and Northeast China was up; that in Northeast, East China and Shandong was up; that in Henan was stable; and that in Guangxi was upward.

Quotation of 95% ethanol of some Shandong ethanol production enterprises:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Shandong Yusheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong Wudi Runsheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong fulichun normal 6650 cassava ethanol plant

Shandong Chengguang general 6600/

Shandong Chengguang no water 7150/

Under the influence of high raw materials and few spot prices in the market, it is possible to rise. However, due to the current high price, the lower reaches have higher resistance to high prices, and the rising trend will not be too big. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that this week’s domestic ethanol market high volatility.