According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall polyester filament market showed a steady decline trend on September 29, among which polyester FDY and polyester DTY decreased by 0.30% and 0.10%, while polyester POY remained stable temporarily.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market on September 29, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from September 28, 2020 to September 29, 2020

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5156 5156 0.00% – 33.09%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5565 5548 – 0.30% – 29.46%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6576 6570 – 0.10% – 29.51%

With the arrival of factory production restriction and price increase and the arrival of stock market before National Day holiday, the downstream purchasing sentiment was stimulated and polyester production and sales were improved. According to statistics, as of 28 days, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories were 80% – 100%, and the production and sales of some promotional factories reached 120%, and the inventory pressure of factories was slightly relieved. The overall market inventory is concentrated in 35-44 days, including POY inventory to 13-17 days, FDY inventory to 24-35 days, and DTY inventory to about 32-44 days. However, the follow-up of downstream orders is insufficient, and the market is gradually indifferent. Today (29th), the prices of some mainstream factories dropped by 50-100 yuan / ton, among which polyester POY (150D / 48F) reported 5010-5250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) reported 5400-5560 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) reported 6400-6600 yuan / ton.

In the raw material market, PX supply is sufficient, the market lacks confidence, and the performance of PX market is weak in the short term. Many PTA units scheduled to be overhauled in September were postponed, while the 700000 tons of Liwan polyester and 1.1 million tons of Zhuhai BPs were continuously restarted, driving the start-up load of PTA to more than 90%. Spot supply is loose, and the National Day holiday is around the corner, downstream polyester factories reduce the purchase of raw materials, PTA pressure callback. As of September 29, the average price of PTA spot market was 3325 yuan / ton, 1.25% lower than the previous day, and 35.19% lower than that of the previous day.

On the downstream side, the traditional marketing has been smooth in recent years, among which, the number of merchants entering the traditional market of China Textile City has increased, the number of online live orders has increased, the spot listing of autumn polyester and cotton fabrics has increased, the new and old varieties of fabric styles have been alternated, the listing cycle of popular fabrics has been accelerated, and the number of completed products has increased day by day. Some large-scale operation and some small and medium-sized business outlets increased the listing of T / C polyester / cotton blended fabric samples in autumn, mainly to absorb orders. Among them, to make school uniform, work clothes, leisure wear, professional wear based fabrics, part of the large-scale business market orders to undertake more smoothly. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is over 74%.

In terms of textile export, according to the statistics of the Ministry of industry and information technology, from January to August 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached 187.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.62%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points compared with January July. In August, under the continuous promotion of anti epidemic textiles such as masks, China’s textile export volume was 14.72 billion US dollars, an increase of 46.96% year-on-year; the clothing export value was 16.21 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 3.23%, which was the first time that the positive monthly growth was restored after seven months of negative growth in the year.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current weaving machine rate has increased, but downstream orders are difficult to maintain, and the overall number of orders is lower than in previous years. The weak demand is the main factor leading to the overall weakness of the polyester filament market. It is expected that in the short term, the market tends to be stable before the National Day holiday, and the price will keep rising in the first week after the return of the festival. However, after the middle of October, as the purchase orders in autumn and winter are basically completed, the demand will further decline. A small amount of just needed supplementary orders can not support the “silver ten” market, and the polyester filament industry will also face The burden of oversupply and the pressure of supply and demand are becoming more and more prominent. At that time, the price of polyester filament is expected to enter the downward channel.

This week (9.21-27), the domestic polysilicon price market fell back to a high level, and the price showed a small downward trend. The main reason is that the supply pressure has been significantly eased as more and more enterprises resume work.

This week, the price of some new orders in the market was slightly loose, which prompted the price correction of polycrystalline silicon, and the pattern of short supply in the market has been reversed. Especially, the “11th” and “Mid Autumn Festival” are approaching. Downstream enterprises control the procurement progress, and most of them purchase on demand. Therefore, silicon material manufacturers have a bargaining space, especially for small-scale enterprises In terms of price, this week’s price also fell. This week, the price dropped by more than 4%, about 3000 yuan / ton. As of the end of the week, the non China polysilicon quotation was around 67000-71000 yuan / ton.

As far as the supply side is concerned, there are about 11 silicon materials put into operation in China. The overall impact of equipment maintenance or load reduction production in some enterprises is getting smaller and smaller. At present, the units that have not been restored are mainly concentrated in three manufacturers, two of which are under production in Xinjiang and one in Sichuan, and the rest are operating at full load. The market supply increased significantly in September compared with August. As a result, it forced downstream manufacturers to lower prices, driving down the price of polysilicon. On the contrary, the demand side, the market demand has not been significantly improved, so there is no market for high price goods. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon, which is the first-class solar material, is 67000-70000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon supply will continue to be loose, downstream demand will be stable, and some enterprises will also have pre holiday stock demand, and the overall supply and demand may be balanced. Therefore, the price of polysilicon may not change much before the festival. However, with the recovery of full production of enterprises’ devices in the later stage, it is possible that polysilicon prices will continue to fall due to supply pressure.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example, the price of titanium dioxide rose this month according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At the beginning of the month, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 13533.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 14000 yuan / ton. The price rose within the week by 3.45%.

2、 Market analysis

According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices this month, announcing that the domestic price of titanium dioxide products will be increased by 500 yuan on the original basis, and the international price will be increased by 80-100 US dollars on the original basis. The rise in the vast majority of manufacturers solid holding up.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in July this year, the export volume of titanium dioxide in China was 97500 tons, with a month on month increase of 26.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.07%; from January to July, the total export volume of titanium dioxide was 660600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.84%. In 2020, affected by the global epidemic situation, the total amount of previous orders contracted slightly from May to June, but the overall export situation is still strong, achieving an unprecedented reverse oversupply in 2019. It is estimated that the total export volume in 2020 may exceed 1.1 million tons.

This month, the export market recovered well, and the export of enterprises increased in the third quarter, superimposed on the cost side, titanium ore prices rose, and everyone actively prepared goods at the downstream demand side. In the recent overhaul of large enterprises, the titanium dioxide market was under started, and the market supply was reduced, and most of the manufacturers were holding up. At present, the ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 12300-14500 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide is 10500-11800 yuan / ton. Recently, a landslide in Yaoheba section of Sichuan Yaxi Expressway broke the expressway, which hindered the only way from Panzhihua to Chengdu, which increased the transportation cost of finished products and reduced the timeliness. The automobile transportation in Panzhihua was greatly affected, and some new unit prices gradually increased.

In terms of raw materials, the price of Panzhihua titanium ore was raised this month. The range is about 100-150 yuan / ton. At present, the quoted price of 38 titanium ore excluding tax is 960-1000 yuan / ton, that of 46 and 10 titanium ore is 1530-1600 yuan / ton, and that of 20 ore is 1550 yuan / ton. This week, the start of Panzhihua mine is still not high, large factory maintenance, the price of titanium concentrate is firm and upward, and the miners are reluctant to sell. Affected by the weather and road transportation, the spot of titanium middlings in the trading market is tight, the cost of titanium concentrate is boosting, and the market atmosphere is more favorable, and the price of titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts from the business agency believe that: this month, the export of enterprises has increased, the domestic downstream market has gradually recovered, domestic demand has increased, raw material titanium ore supply is tight, and the price is up. The rainstorm in Panzhihua affected road transportation, and the transaction price of some new orders increased gradually. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will continue to dominate in the short term. The actual transaction price depends on the spot situation.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4500 yuan / ton, which was stable.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4300-4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Paraformaldehyde market is stable.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of methanol in the upstream decreased by 0.28% this week, which suppressed the price of paraformaldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

Paraformaldehyde analysts believe that paraformaldehyde may maintain stable operation.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the melamine market is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased slightly. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of September 18, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5400 yuan / ton, which was 0.62% higher than the beginning of the week (September 14) and 0.62% higher than that of August 18.

Recently, some units were shut down for maintenance, and the melamine operating rate declined, and some downstream products were prepared in advance, which led to the rise of melamine price. On the 18th, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong was around 5200 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang was around 4700 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan was around 5100 yuan / ton.

For upstream urea, the factory quotation of urea in Shandong has risen slightly recently. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of September 18, the average price quoted by urea enterprises was 1710 yuan / ton, which was 1.38% higher than that at the beginning of the week (September 14). The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that the price of raw material urea has risen slightly in recent years, and the cost side has certain support. The domestic demand performance is still general, but the local supply is tight. It is expected that the melamine market will rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

On September 21, the beginning of the week, the domestic adipic acid prices were stable, and the prices of dealers in some regions rose slightly. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable for the time being. The normal operating rate of the device is about 80%. The inventory pressure of the manufacturer is obvious. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. At present, adipic acid is still at the off-season level. At the cost end, pure benzene has continued to maintain a stable trend since late September, and slightly decreased in the last week, with an amplitude of – 0.59%. After the upward market of pure benzene in August, the current high price declines, and the support for the downstream adipic acid is insufficient.

In terms of local markets:

The market of adipic acid in East China is mainly stable, and the prices of some dealers are slightly higher, with the range of about 100 yuan, and the market inquiry is acceptable. The downstream demand is relatively weak. Most dealers follow the market and make profits. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general and the transaction is cold. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: 6500-6700 yuan / ton acceptance price of Shandong source, 6600-6800 yuan / ton of Jiangsu source acceptance price. Most of the downstream suppliers mainly purchase on rigid demand.

The market of adipic acid in South China is stable with little change in quotation. Dealers still make profits. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure remains and the transaction is fair. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: 6500-6800 yuan / ton acceptance price of Shandong provenance, 6600-6900 yuan / ton of Jiangsu source acceptance price. The downstream is mainly rigid demand procurement.

From the perspective of adipic acid fundamentals this week, the contradiction between supply and demand is still quite prominent. At present, the price rise and fall are mostly affected by local supply. Overall, the market is still weak and stable, trapped by supply pressure and weak demand, which may still maintain a weak market. Price rise and fall powerless, do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to fall.

This week (9.14-18), the domestic price of polysilicon has stabilized, and the domestic market price has mainly stopped rising. However, the price of silicon material is still at a high level, and the market is still in short supply. There is no sign of correction in the market. From the perspective of import, the price of polysilicon in non China region has increased by more than 10% this week. As of the end of the week, the price of non China polysilicon has been around 70000-75000 yuan / ton. The continuous high price operation of polycrystalline mainly benefits from the shortage of market supply caused by the previous five enterprises’ shutdown for maintenance or load reduction. Recently, the market price has obviously stopped rising and stabilized. It is also due to the continuous recovery of some production capacity in Xinjiang, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. However, most of the enterprises kept their inventory at a low level, and the supply in some areas was tight, and the enterprises continued to sign orders in October. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon, which is the first-class solar material, is 71000-75000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, silicon material enterprises in Xinjiang have begun to resume production. At present, only two enterprises in Xinjiang have started operation and have not reached full load operation. In addition, one device in Sichuan has not been restored to production. The other enterprises are mainly in normal operation, and the supply is significantly increased compared with August. In the next week or two, the production capacity of some enterprises may gradually recover. At that time, the supply of polysilicon will continue to increase, and the market shortage may be greatly alleviated. It is expected that polysilicon will continue to operate at a high level in the near future, and the power to continue to advance is insufficient.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of September 15, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 15066 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in early September, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.91%; the price of nylon POY was 12620 yuan / ton, unchanged compared with the beginning of September, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.21%; the price of nylon FDY was 15600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.00%. In the first ten days of September, WTI crude oil futures fell by 12.46%, but the performance of nylon raw materials was strong. Although entering the traditional peak season, the recovery of orders was limited, and some manufacturers raised their prices, most of them were still waiting and waiting. After all, crude oil fell sharply and the raw material rate was weak and adjusted.

In the first ten days of September, the support of pure benzene ring was strong, and the price of cyclohexanone rose slightly. However, the Luxi unit is expected to restart and the supply increase will put the price of cyclohexanone under pressure. At the beginning of September, the operating rate of caprolactam enterprises was 79%, the cost and downstream demand were improved, and the manufacturers supported the price mainly. As of September 11, the operating rate of PA6 was about 81%. In the first ten days of September, the consumption level of downstream factories was not high, the order follow-up was weak, there was resistance for merchants to ship goods, the market confidence was insufficient, there was profit making and single operation, the trading atmosphere was cold and the price was lower. Crude oil fell, the market was generally bearish, short-term price shocks are expected to weaken.

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to US $30.924 billion, down 1.18% month on month. Among them, the export volume of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 14.715 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.88% on a month on month basis; the export volume of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 16.206.6 billion US dollars, up 5.80% month on month. In August, textile and clothing exports declined, and the support of orders in the traditional peak season was not as good as that in previous years. Although some nylon enterprises raised their prices, most of them considered the possibility of raw materials falling down, so they mainly held prices and waited.

Analysts of business agency believe that the sharp drop in crude oil has dampened market confidence, raw material cost support is expected to decline, order support is limited, and the game between peak season benefit and raw material decline is expected to be dominated by short-term nylon filament price holding shipment.

The price of international crude oil fell. On September 4, the adjustment of domestic oil product price stalled, and the domestic oil product market entered the peak demand season of “Jinjiu”, but the decline of international crude oil pulled down the price center of refined oil. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on September 11 was 5498 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the week; on September 11, the price of diesel oil was 4798 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from the beginning of the week.

Due to concerns that the impact of the global epidemic will intensify, demand may be restrained, as well as the resonance impact of the sharp fall of technology stocks and energy stocks in the United States. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil price fell sharply, but remained stable in the later period. WTI crude oil price fell by 6.21% and Brent crude oil price fell by 6.01%.

In terms of gasoline demand, most of China’s regions have a sunny autumn, less rainfall, more residents’ driving trips, and better gasoline consumption performance. However, the sharp decline in international crude oil prices has lowered the focus of domestic gasoline prices. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, diesel demand in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, and the fishing moratorium is over, which has a certain driving effect on diesel demand, but the falling international oil price has pulled down the focus of diesel price.

On September 11, the average start-up load of daily decompression unit was about 74%, and the start-up load of refinery increased slightly by 1%. The domestic refined oil supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, a refined oil analyst at the business club, believes: the international crude oil market demand is not good, and crude oil prices continue to be under pressure; however, the arrival of the traditional peak season of “gold nine silver ten” is expected to support the refined oil prices during the “golden nine silver ten” period.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example, the price of titanium dioxide rose this week according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At the end of last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 13533.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of this week it was 13866.67 yuan / ton. The price rose by 2.46% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Starting from the second week of September, leading companies have been promoted and other manufacturers have followed up. According to incomplete statistics, at present, 21 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices, including longmang Bailian, Anhui anada, Jiangsu Zhenti, Shandong daoen, Shandong Dongjia, CNKI titanium dioxide, haifengxin, Jinpu titanium industry, Yumen Jingyang, Panzhihua Hengtong, Guizhou shengweifu, Tianyuan Group, Yunnan Dahutong, Ningbo Xinfu, Luoyang Yuxing Chemical, Sinochem, etc Qianjiang Fangyuan, Guangdong Huiyun, Panzhihua Dongfang titanium industry, Panzhihua Zhengyuan technology, Jinan Yuxing, Kunming Donghao titanium industry. The notice announced that the domestic price of titanium dioxide products was increased by 500 yuan on the original basis, and the international price was increased by 80-100 US dollars on the original basis. This is the fifth time this year and the third time in the second half of this year that the titanium dioxide industry has set off a price rise.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in July this year, the export volume of titanium dioxide in China was 97500 tons, with a month on month increase of 26.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.07%; the total export volume of titanium dioxide from January to July was 660600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.84%. The main reasons for the change in export volume are: poor domestic demand in the first quarter, manufacturers’ trading focus tends to export, and the outbreak of overseas epidemic in the second quarter, leading to the reduction of exports. In the third quarter, the export volume has been greatly improved compared with the previous period.

Thanks to the good recovery of the export market, the export of enterprises increased in the third quarter, which was superimposed on the rise of titanium ore price at the cost side, the active stock preparation at the downstream demand side, and the transfer of inventory; the domestic demand market recovered, and the titanium dioxide market price rose steadily. At present, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 12000-14500 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide is 10500-11800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, this week Panzhihua titanium ore quotation slightly increased. At present, the tax free quotation of 38 titanium ore is 900-940 yuan / ton, that of 46 and 10 titanium ore is 1380-1420 yuan / ton, and that of 20 ore is 1430-1450 yuan / ton. This week, Panzhihua mine is still not high, the price of titanium concentrate is firm and upward, and the miners are reluctant to sell. The market is more bullish atmosphere, supply is tight, titanium concentrate prices continue to run high.

3、 Future forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analysts of the business club, the export of enterprises increased in the third quarter, the domestic downstream market gradually recovered, domestic demand increased, the overall inventory of manufacturers was low, and the import of titanium ore was hindered to some extent, the supply of raw material titanium ore was tight, and the price was high. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market price will gradually rise on the basis of stable market price in the short term. The actual transaction price is a single discussion.