1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton on August 7, while that in East China was 4300-4500 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene on Sunday (August 9) was 3330-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3440 yuan / ton), an increase of 2.08% over last week. This week, Sinopec raised the price by 100 yuan / ton to 3450 yuan / ton. The bottom support was strengthened and the market was reluctant to sell at low prices. Last week experienced the end of the month to fill the short, the enthusiasm for purchasing was high, this week the market mentality fell, spot trading was light. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to rise, restricting the market to recover, but the pressure of pressure to increase has eased, the situation may be better than July.

The price of nitric acid was stable this week, and the price in East China on August 7 was 1533.33 yuan / ton.

At present, the operating rate of aniline plant is still at a low level, and the enterprise is mainly responsible for stabilizing the price of shipment and removing inventory. Although the cost side rose, the increase was small, and the support for aniline was limited.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the port inventory of pure benzene is still rising, and there are still 20000-30000 tons of pure benzene waiting to be unloaded, which restricts the market situation of pure benzene. However, Sinopec’s tag price was raised, and the bottom support was stronger. It is expected that the rise of pure benzene will slow down next week and maintain the range fluctuation. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of the safety self inspection incident on the storage of dangerous chemicals caused by the previous incident in Lebanon port.

However, the downstream demand is the direct factor affecting the price of aniline. Cost oriented impact is weak, aniline prices are expected to continue to stabilize next week.

From August 3 to 7, 2020, the weekly crude benzene market rose slightly, with the ex factory price in North China at 2431.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2492.50 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.5%.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in July 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

August 5 3400 + 100

On August 5, 2020, the price of pure benzene of Qilu Petrochemical (Sinopec North China) will be increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the price will be 3400 yuan / ton after adjustment.

Around May 5, the price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of main contracts rising to US $45.17/barrel, up US $0.74 due to the double effects of US crude oil inventory reduction and continued weakening of US dollar. Oil prices rose to their highest level since early March. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton this week. The external market of pure benzene fluctuated and went up this week. The price of crude benzene was boosted by the favorable fundamentals. The price of crude benzene rose this week. As of Friday, the market price of crude benzene in Shandong was about 2510 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Downstream: in recent years, there are still a lot of overhauls in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, but the operating rate has been improved compared with that of last week. The demand for crude benzene slightly increased after the start-up of Hebei rongte and other units. Upstream: coking enterprises have better profits and higher operating rate this week. Recently, the environmental protection policy is slightly loose compared with the previous period. The operating rate of coking enterprises near Shandong and Hebei is generally above 80%, and the crude benzene production is higher.

In the future, the business agency believes that the cost pressure of downstream hydrobenzene enterprises is still large, the crude benzene market transaction is general, the market mentality is general, and it is expected that the future crude benzene market will be mainly sorted out.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market has been in a narrow downward trend in July, and some spot prices in the market have been reduced. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS is about 12900.00 yuan / ton, which is 2.64% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in July stable operation, in which East China region slightly increased. The price trend of crude oil at the far end of the cost fluctuated, and the price of pure benzene and ethylene was relatively stable, and the price trend of styrene was not clear. On the downstream side, EPS, PS and ABS decreased slightly at the end of the month, and the demand for styrene did not increase. It is reported that the storage cost of styrene at the port has been increased, increasing the pressure of de stocking. Futures pull up, driving the spot market prices to rise, to the end of the month, replenishment transactions. There is a bullish mentality in the market, and the low price goods supply is reduced. Supply supply weakened after the market, good support. It is expected that the market will continue to confront each other in recent days. On the whole, this week’s styrene price rebound is limited, but in the short term, it is still more negative, and the price consolidation.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, in July, the domestic market was depressed and turned positive. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the operating rate of production enterprises was further improved, and the supply pressure in the market was further increased. The recent rise of cost side has pressure on the factory. Under the pressure of oversupply and cost, acrylonitrile production plant reduced its load in order to divert the contradiction between supply and demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand was improved. Although the downstream just needs to purchase, stock operation is cautious, but the factory recently cut production again, stimulating the market bullish sentiment. Business offers for shipment turn warm, actual trading is average, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be positive.

The domestic butadiene market rose widely in July, especially in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3445 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 4473 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 29.83% during the month, and a decrease of 49.68% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the month, the restart of Tianjin Zhongsha and North Huajin devices made the market’s wavelet rise not continue at that time. However, due to the strong performance of the internal and external markets in the month, combined with the limited quantity of domestic suppliers, the release of market supply was less than expected; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the price rise. The short-term bullish expectation stimulated the positive inquiry of downstream, and some of them showed the sentiment of chasing up, which further promoted the market to climb up. However, with the rapid rise of the market, the cautious atmosphere of the market is gradually rising. At the end of the month, the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of northeast supply, the high price transaction was hindered, and the market dropped slightly. In August, on the one hand, the high external market and abundant raw materials from domestic manufacturers may affect the reduction of import sources in the second half of the month. However, at the same time, there are plans for the production of 120000 T / a new units in Baolai, Liaoning Province, which may continue to supplement domestic demand. Under the deadlock between supply and demand, butadiene analysts in the business community expect that the butadiene market will fluctuate between small areas and wait for the transaction to follow up. The short-term upward push resistance is obvious, and the medium and long-term needs to pay attention to the release of new production capacity.

In July, the domestic ABS price market showed a slow decline, and the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate remained at a high level. Among them, the first ten days of market just need support is still in, ABS market surface operation is more stable. With the petrochemical plant operating at almost full capacity, although the inventory is still at a low level, the on-site spot circulation began to increase. In addition, at the end of the month, the merchants actively let the profit and order to complete the task, and the downstream factory’s stock operation turned to be cautious, and the demand weakened, resulting in a narrow reduction of several brands.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: July ABS market stability has fallen, the price of each brand narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, ABS spot supply began to increase, downstream of high price ABS goods attitude is cautious, take goods just need to go single. At the end of the month, merchants actively reduce the price to complete the task, and there is room for profit making. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to narrow down in the near future.

1、 Strong rally at the end of the month

Figure 1: natural rubber commodity index trend in July 2020

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on July 30 was 32.41, up 0.85 points compared with yesterday, 67.59% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 18.80% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream price of natural rubber since July 2020

According to the data of natural rubber (bid 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10089 yuan / ton on July 1, 10910 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 8.14%. Among them, the price of 10910 yuan / ton on the 30th was the highest price of this month, and 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day was the lowest point of this month, and the maximum earthquake amplitude was 8.14%. In the last few days of the end of the month, it continuously increased, with the highest breaking through 11100 yuan / ton, which greatly pushed up the price of natural rubber this month; however, this pull-up was more a game between the long and short forces of futures.

At the end of the month, bulls rose. This month, rubber 09 contract fluctuated around 10600 yuan / T for many days. In the late ten days, it began to shock high, breaking through the early high point. In particular, the bull continued to pull up at the end of the month, highlighting the strength.

Imports increased year on year. China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 534000 tons in June 2020, up 21% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14. From January to June 2020, China imported 3.313 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), with an increase of 1.9% over the same period. In terms of import sources, Vietnam’s export of mixed rubber increased by 1.4% in the first half of the year compared with the same period of last year, while the export volume of Thailand in the first half year decreased year on year, and the export of mixed rubber increased by 50%. Domestic economic situation continued to recover, rubber downstream industry slowly improved.

Stocks vary. As of July 31, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 237846 tons and 230140 tons, respectively, down 5041 tons and 970 tons compared with last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. High port inventory and low Warehouse Receipt Inventory coexist this month.

The operating rate continued to rise. According to the data, as of July 24, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 71.62%, up 0.46% month on month and 0.43% year on year; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 66.49%, up 1.03% month on month and 3.15% year on year. The domestic epidemic situation is good and the demand is recovering continuously; however, the overseas epidemic situation is grim, and the recovery of China’s tire export situation is slow, and the uncertainty is still large in the later stage.

2、 From January to July, the trend is half “V”

Figure 3: price trend of natural rubber mainstream from January to July 2020

2020 is a special year. Under the influence of special factors, all walks of life seem to press the pause button or slow down the lens, and the normal operation track is weakened by delayed goods. Natural rubber, as a sensitive agricultural product and strategic industrial product, its market trend follows the changes of the environment. The natural rubber market price monitored by the business agency shows that the natural rubber market price dropped continuously from 12130 yuan / ton on January 1 to 9100 yuan / ton at the end of March and the beginning of April, It has set the lowest price for more than 10 years, and has undoubtedly completed the left part of the “V” trend – a sharp drop of nearly 24%; with the resumption of production in various industries in China since March, the downstream demand has slowly recovered. Since April, natural rubber has gradually stepped into the rebound trend. Although the process is full of repetition and the speed is relatively slow, the first half of the year, the increase of natural rubber is still 8.48%, about 10078 yuan / ton At the beginning of the second half of the year, the price of natural rubber increased by 8.26% in only one month, and the rebound speed was obviously accelerated. In this process, the downstream operating rate of natural rubber continued to rise, and the demand continued to be good, which was part of the factor. However, it did not reach the extent of substantial increase in a short period of several days. In fact, traders also reflected that the prices of several days at the end of the month were continuously charged High by futures long position on 09 contract led to.

3、 The future situation is better

According to the analysis of the business agency, since 2020, the output of new rubber has not yet met the market demand due to various factors. The price drop caused by a large number of listing in previous years has not yet appeared this year. In Yunnan Banna region, there is a continuous shortage of new rubber products, and some rubber supplies in the Shanghai market are also in short supply. The warehouse receipt inventory of the previous period is low, but the Port imported rubber inventory is still high At present, China’s natural rubber production areas have entered the rainy season, and it is impossible to predict that a large number of new rubber will be put on the market in the coming months. The rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia have made some progress in the prevention and control of epidemic situation in recent years, and the economic activities have gradually recovered. However, the situation in many countries is different, and the output of new rubber is still limited. At present, under the influence of special situation, the recovery of foreign orders of Tianjiao downstream enterprises is still unpredictable, but the recovery trend can be seen from the continuous rise of operating rate on a month on month basis. At present, under the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, Tianjiao, which has been in the low price range for a long time, has a strong upward trend in recent days. In the process of repeated shocks, the decline range will not be very large. From the perspective of China’s economic recovery, China’s economy will continue to improve in the third quarter. The shortage of goods in Yunnan, especially in Banna, still forms a certain support for prices, especially local prices. In addition, Southeast Asian rubber producing countries delay tapping for two months, and the late environment is unpredictable. It is a foregone conclusion that the annual rubber production will decline year on year. To maintain the view of small fluctuations in the future market of natural rubber, with the gradual consumption of spot rubber inventory, the price is expected to rise again and again until a large number of new rubber are listed.

In July 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, the market center of gravity continued to move down, and the settlement price announced at the end of the month fell to the lowest point in the year. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 7960 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the month was 7712 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.12% within the month. The price fell 16.90% compared with the same period last year.

In this month, the domestic BDO market started at a low level and the spot supply was tight. The factory raised its listing in July and continued to go up in August. The mentality of supporting the market was obvious. But the middle and lower reaches follow-up situation is general, the market center of gravity slowly narrow range up. Some factories are still in parking, the market start-up is relatively low, and a large amount of early-stage inventory has been digested; and some factories in Xinjiang are affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation is limited, the market spot supply is tight, the factory’s intention to go low is not strong, and the offer is firm and upward. Some traders followed up the price hike, the mainstream wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches was strong, and the actual single trading was rarely heard. In the last ten days of the month, the listing of main factories increased by 100 yuan / ton in July, and continued to rise in August, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with that in July. Most downstream factories mainly purchase by contract, and a small number of spot customers follow up on demand. They enter the market to depress prices, and the negotiation of new orders rises slowly. In the next month, the storage and shutdown device will restart, which will benefit or weaken the supply side. However, there is no obvious change in downstream start-up, and the replenishment is limited. Therefore, the industry is cautious to push up the price and continue to pay attention to the device dynamics and the downstream mentality changes.

In terms of devices, Ronghe and Xinye are in shutdown, and the restart time is not determined; Dongyuan plans to start on August 10; Henan stops on July 13 and restarts on July 20; Ningxia Sinopec Changcheng two sets of units operate; Shaanxi Shaanxi chemical company has 70% of the load; Shaanxi black cat load is 60%; Tianye phase I is shut down for maintenance on May 18, while phase II and phase III units are under continuous shutdown, and the restart time is unknown; Panjin Dalian is scheduled to overhaul on June 10 , has not been restarted; Cathay Pacific’s overall load is 60%; MEC’s load is 60%; Hecheng coal’s plan to restart in July, the time is unknown.

Raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol price in this month showed an inverted “V” trend, with favorable trading atmosphere before restraining. In the first ten days of the month, Yulin Yankuang and Xinjiang Guanghui units shut down one after another, while jinchengtai and Guotai are still in the maintenance stage. Xinao and Rongxin maintain low load operation. The mainstream prices are pushed up in a narrow range under the support of low supply. Most upstream factories maintain a balance of production and sales without pressure to ship goods. Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia provide more local olefins, and Guanzhong region supplies more goods to Henan, Lianghu and other places. In the last ten days of the month, the upstream devices began to restart one after another, and the supply continued to increase. However, the downstream demand was not followed up enough. The traders resisted the high price, and the upstream order rate decreased, resulting in a narrow rise in inventory. Under the pressure of shipment, the prices in various regions fell again, and the market atmosphere became weak. At present, the mentality of the industry is empty, the demand has not improved significantly, and the short-term market weakness is difficult to change.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market first stabilized and then rose this month, mainly affected by the maintenance of PVC enterprises in Northwest China. However, the external sales volume of supporting calcium carbide increased, which led to the aggravation of the market bearish mentality. However, the downstream delivery volume remained low. Therefore, the overall market consolidation and wait-and-see was the main market. The mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai in the middle and early ten days was maintained at 2300 yuan / ton. This month, the overall transportation inspection of the market is strict, and the phenomenon of prawei and overload is strictly limited. In addition, with the peak season of fruit and vegetable transportation in Northwest China, the logistics costs continue to rise. In the late ten days, with the decrease of export volume in Northwest China and the continuous transportation inspection, the regional shortage of downstream arrival volume gradually appeared, and the price of calcium carbide began to rise. At present, the mainstream price in Wuhai area rose to 2500 yuan / ton. With the end of the maintenance of PVC carbide method in the main downstream of calcium carbide, as well as the improvement of starting enthusiasm, the demand continues to increase. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will continue to rise next month..

Downstream, this month, the domestic spandex PTMEG market narrow downward. The market start-up is relatively stable, and the pressure of PTMEG shipment is large. Downstream spandex just need to enter the market, the supplier’s mentality of shipment still exists, narrow range of profit negotiation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.

In the future, the raw material carbide storage is expected to go up, and the cost side support is relatively strong; in the supply side, Hemei has stopped for a week outside of the plan since July 30, and Dongyuan and Panjin Dalian inventory are expected to restart, and the supply will increase. In the short term, the supply is still slightly tight, and in the long run, the favorable support at the supply side is weakened. When the raw material inventory is digested, although the demand side has the expected increment, the overall operating change is not big and the digestion is limited. BDO analysts of business agency predict that there is a possibility of narrow upward exploration in domestic BDO market in the first half of July; in the second half of July, with the restart of parking devices, the market tends to be strong and volatile, focusing on the start-up of devices and changes in downstream demand.

The overall performance of bisphenol a market in July was mainly downward. On July 1, bisphenol a market in East China offered yuan / ton, while on July 31, bisphenol a market in East China offered yuan / ton, falling as a whole The raw materials phenol and acetone went down as a whole, especially in acetone. The cost support was insufficient. The market changed with the change of downstream demand. On the whole, there was no long-term good trend. The downstream occasionally purchased large orders to stimulate the market.

From the perspective of raw materials, phenol / acetone market continued to decline under pressure during the week. Up to now, the phenol Market in East China has offered 5600 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the short-term supply is sufficient. At present, domestic mainstream manufacturers are operating at full capacity (except for the shutdown and maintenance of Sinopec’s three well unit). In terms of the port, it is estimated that 6000 tons of phenol will arrive at the port in early August. Overall, the phenol market supply is sufficient. The intention of on-site bid is low in the near future, and the center of gravity is further downward. It is difficult to say that the phenol Market is good at present. It is expected that the phenol Market in East China is expected The market is weak in operation, and the negotiation interval is 5300-5400 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, it continued to dive downward. Up to now, the acetone market in East China has been negotiated at 5800 yuan / T, and the factory has made up for several times in the month, with a cumulative decrease of nearly 2000 yuan / T. by the end of the month, the East China factory offered 5800 yuan / T, and the market still has room for further downward trend. In terms of ports, nearly 8000 tons of acetone arrived at the port in the first ten days of August, and the import source was sufficient; the terminal factory replenished actively The market situation is hard to say good. The business association predicts that the acetone market will mainly decline in August, but the decline will slow down.

The market reference price of liquid epoxy resin is 17000-17500 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of solid epoxy resin is 14000 yuan / ton. With the continuous decline of dual raw materials, the market confidence of the resin industry is under great pressure. The demand for terminal wind power and other factories has slightly improved. The overall operating rate of enterprises has been steadily rising. The short-term epoxy resin market just needs to follow up, and the trading needs to be improved.

In the view of business associations, the terminal demand is gradually improving, but the raw material end support is insufficient, there are many disadvantages, the pressure on the supply side is not great, and the market supply is slightly tense. The business agency expects that the bisphenol a market will run smoothly in the short term, and the reference quotation in the East China market will be 9600 yuan / T.