Market trend: phenol market started this week, affected by poor downstream demand, stopped rising and turned down. At present, the reference offer in East China market is 6600 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light. The daily opening and early offer of the carriers are low, but the demand is still sluggish. In the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, in addition to the high price of phenol in the early phenol rising market, the terminal participation enthusiasm slows down, and the trading is poor. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. However, the prices of major markets were lower. The prices in East China were 6600-6650 yuan / ton, South China 6850 yuan / ton, and Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas were relatively stable at 7000 yuan / ton. The market fell 150-350 yuan / ton this week.

Analysis and comment: the raw material pure benzene market is weak. Affected by the current spot delivery pressure of the port, the focus of pure benzene market is weak, and the market reference offer is 3100-3600 yuan / ton. At present, in the late ten days of the port, there are concentrated arrivals, the pressure of port pure benzene is increasing, and the short-term industry is bearish on the market. On May 13, Sinopec offered 3100 yuan / ton for Qilu Petrochemical Company in North China, 3150 yuan / ton for Yangzi Petrochemical Company in East China, 3150 yuan / ton for Hainan Petrochemical Company in South China, 3600 yuan / ton for Sinopec Group, 3600 yuan / ton for Jingbo Petrochemical Company, 3500 yuan / ton for Dongming Petrochemical Company, 3150 yuan / ton for HSBC Petrochemical Company and 3500 yuan / ton for Jincheng petrochemical company. Another important raw material propylene market, the current market momentum is obvious, the mainstream transactions are mostly 6600 yuan / ton, the wide downstream market of propylene has a high rate of plant operation, the demand for propylene procurement is stable and upward, propylene shipment is smooth, the current propylene inventory is still low, and the short-term propylene is stable and upward.

The downstream market began to weaken. At present, the bisphenol a market ended its upward trend and gradually recovered. At present, the price of bisphenol a market in East China is 9700 yuan / ton, the price of bisphenol a market in North China is 9700 yuan / ton, and the price of bisphenol a market in South China is 10000 yuan / ton. Due to the low purchasing mood of the downstream resin factory, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is weak, and the price of the commodity holder is loose, but the profit space is large Limited, the current market trading atmosphere is poor, very few transactions.

On the external market, more gains and less losses. The price of phenol in CFR China rose 82 US dollars / ton to 696 US dollars / ton, while the price of phenol in CFR Southeast Asia and CFR India rose 33 US dollars / ton to 673 US dollars / ton and 667 US dollars / ton respectively this week. Phenol prices in northwest Europe rose 36 euros / ton to 732 euros / ton, with the trading atmosphere flat. The price of phenol in the United States rose 45 US dollars / ton to 395 US dollars / ton FOB, with little change in the overall market fundamentals and lagging demand performance.

Future market forecast: Although the pressure on the supply of phenol Market is not great, it is still difficult to meet the sluggish demand market. The pressure on the cargo holders is increasing, the shipment is not smooth, and the opening is lower. However, under the support of the supply side, there is no stable offer traders at the same time, and the current market is short of follow-up trading, with few transactions. The phenol Market in East China may have further downside risks, and the market declines. It is expected that 6500 yuan / ton of offer in East China is expected to break through.

The rare earth index was 331 on May 12, unchanged from yesterday, 66.90% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 22.14% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 354500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide rose by 2000 yuan / ton to 268500 yuan / ton, 1770000 yuan / ton, 305000 yuan / ton, 280000 yuan / ton, respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy increased by 2000 yuan / ton to 338000 yuan / ton, while the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.775 million yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend is temporarily stable. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth enterprises, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, and formed the compilation of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. All rare earth enterprises should actively connect with China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association, obtain relevant policy information, accurately grasp the application requirements, strive for policy support, promote the smooth operation of rare earth industry chain, and jointly promote the stable and healthy development of the industry.

In the near future, the background pattern of weak downstream demand in rare earth market has not changed. The price rise of praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal is mainly due to the fact that downstream enterprises just need to purchase. Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the price of praseodymium neodymium will face the risk of falling after the purchase is completed. The domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, the downstream demand is general, and the market price of heavy rare earth may remain stable.

1、 Price trend

This week, propane Market showed a trend of first pushing up and then falling back. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 3237.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3242.50 yuan / ton, up 0.15% in the week, 30.94% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is average. As of May 9, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3100 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3220 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3350 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3250 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3300 yuan / ton.

Market: after the May Day holiday, the international oil price rose, driving liquefied gas up one after another, boosting the propane Market. In May, CP rose, which was positive. There is a demand for replenishment in the lower reaches, and the market entry is more active. The price of refineries has significantly pushed up. However, in the later part of the week, the international crude oil declined, the downstream delisting consumed inventory, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was obviously weakened, and the price was lower.

International market: Saudi Aramco may CP announced that propylene butane all rose sharply. Propane rose to $340 / T, up $110 / T from last month; butane rose $340 / T, up $140 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 37 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 17 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 19.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are trichloromethane (17.86%), crude benzene (14.59%) and phenol (11.04%). There are 29 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are R22 (- 10.10%), isopropanol (- 8.93%) and fluorite (- 6.83%). This week’s average was 0.97%.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the overall rise of international crude oil led to the rise of propane, and the terminal market was basically stable. However, with the gradual warming of the weather, the demand is expected to decrease, and it is expected to fall in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 43038.33 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 43625 yuan / ton, up 1.36%, down 8.39% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

LME copper rebounded from a low in March this week, rising to a staged high of $5295 late in the week, closing at $5280.5, up 3.42% on the week. This week, the Shanghai copper index opened 42330 yuan lower and rose in shock, closing at 43520 yuan, or 1.24%.

This week, the spot copper price was depressed first and then increased. On the first day after the festival, the traders were willing to pick up the goods at a low price. The downstream just needed to prepare goods, and the trading was good. At the end of the week, the imported copper flowed in. The trading of the traders was weak, the consumption of the downstream enterprises was average, and the overall trading of the whole market in the week was OK. In April, imports of unwrought and rolled copper and copper materials increased year on year, while Europe and the United States considered starting to unseal the economy. At the end of the week, Chinese and American negotiators released good confidence to push copper prices higher. This week, the copper inventory of lunlun continued to be destocked, with a cumulative decrease of 7775 metric tons to 243700 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 3.09%.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business agency believe that domestic production has recovered rapidly, downstream demand has picked up seasonally, and the consumer market still has strong resilience. The continuous de stocking of copper has a strong support for the price. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of April 30, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is around 15333 yuan / ton, which is about 733 yuan / ton higher than the lowest price of the month a week ago (14600 yuan / ton on April 22), with an increase of 5.02%; compared with the average market price of 15200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (15200 yuan / ton on April 1), the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is around 15333 yuan / ton Up 133 yuan / ton, or 0.88%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of April, the market of organosilicon is still weak and the market needs to be improved. At that time, the average price of organosilicon DMC market was around 15200 yuan / ton, the high-end price was 15500 yuan / ton, and the low-end price was about 14200 yuan / ton. The low-end operation for many days made the factory’s early inventory digested. After the Qingming Festival, the market saw a sound of price increase, and some low-end prices were numerous The factory price of DMC was increased, among which Luxi Chemical Industry had a large adjustment range. The previous low-end quotation was around 14300 yuan / ton. On the 7th day after the Qingming Festival, the quotation was increased to 15200 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the reference average factory price of organosilicon DMC market rose to 15400 yuan / ton on the 7th day. As the demand of the terminal market is still not fully released, the downstream purchases on demand, the mentality of hoarding is weak, the market is mainly wait-and-see, the high price is temporarily stable for a few days, some manufacturers can’t bear the inventory pressure, once again reduce the DMC factory price, the lower price quotation is back to the market again at the beginning of the month, and the price game appears repeatedly. As of April 22, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, there are The average factory reference price of silicon machine DMC has dropped to 14600 yuan / ton, and the low-end quotation has reached 13900-14100 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, affected by the slight recovery of downstream silicone rubber market, some low-end manufacturers slightly increased the factory quotation of DMC by 100-200 yuan / ton, but it did not have a far-reaching impact on the overall market. The manufacturer’s mentality has been on the verge of collapse. The end of the month shutdown and production restriction plans have been put out in succession, and the DMC market finally faced a counterattack at the end of the month. On the 27th, the market began to rebound at the bottom, with a clear overall momentum Obviously, the maximum increase range of the manufacturer is 1000 yuan / ton. On the 30th, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC market was recalled to around 15300 yuan / ton. So far, in April, although the market of organosilicon DMC met another trough, it was good that it was back at the end of the month, and the market was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: upstream metal silicon Market: the output of Southwest silicon production area has not increased significantly. Influenced by cost factors, at present, the enthusiasm of silicon plants in Liangshan, Ya’an and other regions is not high, and it is expected to improve in the wet season in June. Recently, affected by the rising freight, the freight rates of raw materials and finished products have been increased, and the manufacturers’ willingness to hold up the price has been increased. Before and after the holidays, silicon prices stopped falling and stabilized, rising slightly. At present, the price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 11100-1120 yuan / ton 0 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will continue to rise for a long time, and the subsequent operation will be more stable for the time being.

1、 Price trend

In April 2020, the domestic BDO market mainly fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 9440 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 9240 yuan / ton, down 2.12% in the month. The price is 1.94% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this month, the domestic BDO market “fell” mainly. Crude oil fluctuates in low level and even falls to negative value. Raw materials such as methanol and calcium carbide operate in low level. The cost end support is weak, which is bad for BDO industry. Although the main factories such as crane coal and Dongyuan were shut down this month, the overall market was running at a low negative level to digest the early inventory. However, there is no turning point in the global epidemic, and terminal demand continues to be weak, leading to the high inventory of PTMEG and PBT in the main downstream of BDO, many factories are forced to reduce negative load or stop, and the consumption capacity of raw materials is weakened; most of the downstream maintain safe raw materials inventory, have low enthusiasm for market replenishment, conflict with high price linked settlement, select contract and spot combined with sporadic procurement, and the price is severely depressed. Because BDO is not easy to store liquid, the upstream and midstream inventory is not effectively transferred to the downstream; active shipment is still the current focus, manufacturers make more profits to promote sales, and the focus of trading is constantly moving down. At the same time, high-quality and low-cost imported goods enter the domestic market. Under the pressure of cost, imported goods are more favored by the downstream, and the domestic market is hit. In addition, on April 26-27, Henan energy, Meike, Shaanxi chemical, Dongyuan and Tunhe announced the settlement in April and listing in May, among which the listing decreased by 900-1000 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, aggravating the market bearish mentality. At present, the market of BDO in the future is weak and hard to change.

In terms of devices, Henan hecian, Dongyuan, Ronghe stop, and the restart time is uncertain; Henan Kaixiang 110000t / a device stops for maintenance on March 15, and one set of device is restarted for normal operation on April 15; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a device stops for maintenance on March 25, and the restart time is determined according to the market situation; Ningxia Sinopec Great Wall energy one set of device operates; Shaanxi Shanhua 10 The 10000 ton / year unit was restarted on April 4 to maintain 70-80% load operation; the 60000 ton unit of Shaanxi black cat stopped on April 10 to replace the catalyst, which has not been restarted. The operation rate of other units has little change. It is estimated that the output in April is about 80500 tons, with the operating rate of 43%, 1.1% lower than that of last month. (Note: since November 2001, the domestic production capacity has increased by 60000t / A for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry respectively, and 104000t / A for Tunhe phase II)

Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: this month, the price of methanol in Northwest China shows an inverted “V” trend, and the transaction atmosphere is first to be improved, then to be suppressed. In the first ten days of the month, Shilin, jinchengtai and other devices, the main factories of Inner Mongolia south line, were temporarily overhauled. Xianyang chemical industry in Guanzhong region entered into long-term equipment maintenance. Shaanxi Weihua and Shaanxi coking methanol devices were shut down in succession. With the support of low supply and favorable futures, the factories in each region delivered smoothly. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia region rose to 1560-1580 yuan / ton ex warehouse spot exchange for two weeks in a row. Guanzhong Regional mainstream prices rose to 1620-1700 yuan / ton ex warehouse spot exchange. In the last ten days of the month, the international crude oil fell. In the face of the negative market pressure, the maintenance of Shenhua Yulin olefin unit also gradually showed negative. The downstream and traders returned to the wait-and-see mentality. Baofeng and other main downstream reduced the external production volume, and the production enterprises were forced to reduce the price to promote the shipment under the high storage pressure.

Calcium carbide: this month, the domestic calcium carbide market is still in a downward trend, and the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start a rapid decline, which is mainly affected by three factors. First, the cost side, although the price of orchid carbon also shows a weak trend, but the rate of decline is supported by the price of raw coal, the rate of decline is slower than that of calcium carbide, and the cost pressure of calcium carbide production enterprises is relatively large. Second, the inventory pressure, the downstream demand weakening, and the production The third is the rapid decline in price, which has been reduced by 300 yuan / ton from No.1 to the end of the year. At present, the downstream PVC is mainly vulnerable to shocks, and the inventory is still high, and the individual remains bearish for a long time. In addition, it is expected that the overhaul of carbide enterprises will increase in the next month, which will reduce the demand for carbide and increase the pressure on carbide inventory. It is expected that the weak market of calcium carbide will be sorted out next month. If PVC maintenance volume increases, the market price of calcium carbide will go down, and the construction will go down again.

In the downstream, the main downstream PTMEG: most of the BDO supporting PTMEG units have been started and maintained at 70-80%. In the BDO plant of outsourcing: Hangzhou Sanlong was restarted in the first ten days of March, with low negative operation; Xiaoxing chemical industry had a load of 40-50%, and planned to stop for maintenance in early May. Downstream PBT: BDO supporting downstream PBT: Meizhou Bay was shut down for maintenance on April 8 and started on April 25; Kaixiang was shut down in March and expected to restart in May; Tunhe River load was about 50%. BDO factory: Yizheng Chemical fiber load is about 50%, with maintenance plan in May; Nantong Xingchen operates normally; Kanghui stops for maintenance in mid April; Changshu Changchun load is 50%; Wuxi Xingsheng load is low; Zhejiang Meiyuan and Shandong weijiao are in parking. About 30% of the PBT industry was started, with limited demand. Other downstream: the overall load of GBL plant is 40-50%, and the plant has planned maintenance in May. TPU load is about 4-50%, Pu slurry load is about 30-40%.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the support of raw material end is weak. However, the market started to maintain a low level. Due to the weak trend of terminal demand, the downstream industries passively reduced the load or stopped for maintenance. Before the festival, the atmosphere of goods preparation in the downstream was light, and most of them entered the market to depress the price. We heard that the spot negotiation was back to point. Under the pressure of the manufacturer’s delivery, more and more negotiation should be carried out to make profits lower. Before BDO inventory is not effectively digested, BDO analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to rock bottom next month, focusing specifically on the changes in the mentality and fundamentals of the supplier and the demander.

Products: the domestic epoxy resin market is in a weak position. Generally speaking, the liquid resin in East China and the solid resin in Huangshan area are in a downward trend.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the negotiation of liquid resin E-51 in East China is 16500 yuan / ton (in barrels), that in Shandong is 13300 yuan / ton, and that in Huangshan is 13400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: epichlorohydrin and bisphenol A increased in a narrow range, and the market of bisphenol A in East China offered 8800 yuan / ton. At present, the reference price of epichlorohydrin market in East China is around 9600-9800 yuan / ton, but it is difficult to have substantial pulling effect due to the decline of downstream demand market. On the supply side, 60% of the load of the liquid resin plant is maintained, mostly based on the early delivery contract, and 50% of the load of the solid resin plant is maintained after the commencement. In terms of terminal market, buyers are in conflict with high prices and have few transactions. In addition, they have little intention of replenishing downstream goods when May Day holiday comes, and the short-term decline remains unchanged.

Future market forecast: with the coming of the holiday, the downstream replenishment is less, the weak situation remains unchanged in the short term, the bearish mood in the field is serious, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that the domestic epoxy resin market will be in a shock adjustment trend in the near future.