Commodity index: on May 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.54, down 0.61 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, down 20.15% from the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: Business Agency (100) ppi.com ）According to the monitoring data, the polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) market fluctuated and decreased in May. On the first day, the mainstream market price was about 14820 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream market price was about 14000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.26%.

Factor analysis:

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to the first half of April 2020, the domestic market price continued to be significantly reduced. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month price was up to about 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the manufacturer’s dynamics: Sinopec North China acrylonitrile spot price was increased and 8000 yuan / ton was implemented; Jiangsu silbon Petrochemical’s 520000 ton / year acrylonitrile plant currently maintains half load production; Shandong kelur chemical’s 130000 ton propylene plant The acrylonitrile unit was shut down for maintenance in early April and has not been started yet The reduction of production caused the price of acrylonitrile to rise. At present, the main quotation of the market is about 8000 yuan / ton. That is to say, the increase of upstream propylene and the reduction of production of acrylonitrile manufacturers led to the sharp increase of 1650 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile in May. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises are reduced, survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult, and raw material market has been depressed.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory, and the price of main product specification products has been stable in May. The price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 13900-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is 9400-10000 yuan / ton, The quotation of molecular weight 16 million solid particles is 9800-10500 yuan / ton, the quotation of molecular weight 18 million solid particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of molecular weight 18-20 million powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non ion: the quotation is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; some specifications are comprehensively adjusted by 600-800 yuan / ton this month. Restricted by the weak downstream demand, manufacturers have a huge sales pressure, and some enterprises have to reduce prices.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide changed little, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the production of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased due to the device maintenance and other reasons, and the price of acrylonitrile increased many times this month.

About the future market: according to the analysis of the business community, in the whole may, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile increased by 1650 yuan / ton, a large margin, the pressure on the cost end of polyacrylamide increased, but the price of polyacrylamide enterprises declined instead of rising, in fact, most of them are inventory products; since the demand has been stagnant, the inventory of enterprises is high, and the inventory consumption task is arduous. As far as the current situation is concerned, the trend of Polyacrylamide in June should be slightly fluctuating, and the current mainstream price range may not change much.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the market price of chloroform in Shandong continued to rise in May. As of May 28, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2350 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 950 yuan / ton compared with 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, or an overall increase of 67.86%.

Commencement of plant capacity of the enterprise

440000 tons / year in Jinling, Shandong 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000t / a parking

40 million tons / year 50% of Luxi Chemical

280000t / A, 50% in Dongyue, Shandong

In May, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to rise sharply, mainly due to the scarcity of spot market. At present, trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province are mostly operating in a negative way. The overall inventory of the industry is low, the spot market supply is tight, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price, traders are in short supply of one product, and the downstream industry is mainly in rigid demand, but the overall situation is slightly weak. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2350 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2200 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2850 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the upstream liquid chlorine market performance is relatively strong, which supports the cost of chloroform well. At present, the start-up of liquid chlorine manufacturers in Shandong is not high, but the recent start-up of units in North China is gradually improved, and the market supply is expected to increase, which has a certain negative impact on the liquid chlorine market. At present, the market price is 600-800 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the continuous downward market price of raw material methanol can not form an effective support for the chloroform market. At present, the methanol market is up and down, with the main trend of decline. The trade is not smooth and the buying gas is weak. The average price in Shandong is about 1630 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase just needs to be soft, the buying atmosphere in the industry is weak, the market price of refrigerant R22 has almost bottomed out, the enterprise has not started enough, the support for trichloromethane is not good, the manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price, but the terminal demand recovery is slow, the rising power is insufficient, and the current price is around 15500 yuan / ton; the purchase just needs to be light in the solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry, and the price support for trichloromethane is not good Sufficient, demand side overall bad

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, the low operating rate of trichloromethane market at present is mainly caused by the active negative reduction of manufacturers, no large fluctuation of enterprises’ devices, and low inventory pressure of enterprises, so the firm price mentality is better, while the demand of downstream market is slow to be significantly improved, and the bad situation of trichloromethane is long-standing, and the future market needs to pay attention to the production inventory of enterprises.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 15433.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 14166.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Since May, affected by the epidemic situation abroad, foreign trade is not good, and domestic titanium dioxide enterprises are under great pressure to ship. In this month, the price of titanium dioxide has been reduced, and the main price of manufacturers has declined by about 500-1000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mood of terminal procurement is more serious. At present, the factory price of rutile titanium dioxide, anatase titanium dioxide and chlorination titanium dioxide is 13500-14500 yuan / ton, 11500-13000 yuan / ton and 16500-20000 yuan / ton respectively. In terms of the current international situation, titanium dioxide market as a whole is weak.

Since the end of March, the export of foreign trade has shrunk. Although some countries have eased, the actual export situation is still worrying. The atmosphere of domestic trade and investment is light, mainly due to the decline of the market, leading to obvious wait-and-see mood of the terminal, and the single purchase volume is compressed. Affected by inventory and cost pressure, some enterprises have begun to cut production and stop production. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide is still weak, with a single discussion.

In terms of the upstream titanium concentrate, Panxi titanium ore market is stable and weak this month, the quotation of small and medium-sized ores is slightly down, the terminal demand is low, and the general delivery pressure of miners is large. Up to now, the price of 38 titanium ore is 760-800 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ore is 1150-1450 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ore is about 1500 yuan / ton. In the short term, the real price of titanium concentrate will be weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of business association: affected by the global epidemic, the titanium dioxide market demand is weak, the industry chain as a whole is under pressure, the export of foreign trade is slightly improving, and there is still some pressure for the enterprise to ship. In the short term, the weak price is mainly sorted out, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, last week’s zinc price rose first and then fell. The overall zinc price fell slightly, and the zinc market lost its support. As of May 225, the spot price of zinc was 16800.00 yuan / ton, down 0.85% from 16943.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Zinc stock in LME Market

Product inventory increase / decrease time

Zinc 106575-250 May 22

Zinc 106825-450 May 21

Zinc 107275 8900 May 20

Zinc 98375-250 May 19

Zinc 98625-350 May 18

It can be seen from the table that last week, the stock of zinc ingots in LME market rose sharply, and the stock of international zinc market rose sharply. Since May, the international zinc market has resumed production, the supply expectation of international zinc market has risen slowly, and the supply expectation of future zinc market is sufficient.

The policy is not as good as expected

At 9 a.m. on May 22, Premier Li Keqiang, on behalf of the State Council, made a report on the work of the government to the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress. This year’s report on the work of the government does not set a specific target for the annual economic growth. Moreover, the adjusted targets in the government report are also quite different from expectations. The new investment in the traditional infrastructure is limited, and it is not as good as market expectations. The increase of infrastructure projects is not as expected, the demand of zinc city is not as expected, and the rising power of zinc city is insufficient.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, believes that since late March, the domestic zinc price has slowly recovered, and the demand for downstream enterprises to resume work and production is the main driving force for the rise of zinc price, but the future zinc price is more driven by the expectation of the future macroeconomic recovery, and the favorable infrastructure and policies are the main driving force for the macro-economic recovery. At last week’s two sessions, the government’s work report did not have a clear economic growth target, which on the one hand reflected the bad economic environment, on the other hand, new infrastructure projects are not the first choice for macro-control. However, the lack of new infrastructure projects has seriously affected the demand expectation of zinc market, and the demand expectation of zinc market in the future is insufficient and the supply expectation is rising. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc in the future is sufficient, while the policy benefits are not as good as expected, which leads to insufficient demand expectation, and the zinc price loses the support of rising. It is expected that the zinc price in the future will fluctuate and adjust, and the zinc market will have certain downward pressure.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China was stronger in late May, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of Friday, may 22, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 116633.33 yuan / ton, up 2.35% from the average level at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In the first half of the month, the spot supply of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 was tight, and after the market rose, it is currently running at a high level. According to the data in the business club’s large list, after the domestic pure benzene price strengthened, boosted by the rise of crude oil and external market, it also ran at a high level in the near future. The listing price of Sinopec pure benzene is firm. At present, the improvement of caprolactam supply tension in China is limited, and the stock is still less. The price of caprolactam is relatively stable at present due to the strong willingness of sellers to hold up the price and the support of pure benzene. Some enterprises will restart their equipment soon, and the supply will further improve, but the short-term market of caprolactam spot price may be maintained.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in late May, the domestic PA6 market is still strong, and the spot prices of various brands are still slightly increased. The tight supply pattern of caprolactam in the upper reaches improved little, and PA6 cost end supported strongly. The downstream market demand is basically met, and PA6 trading volume is significantly reduced, but businesses generally support the market operation. PA6 market is expected to adjust in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on May 22, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3683 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.84% from last week.

On May 22, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3535 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from last Friday and 85 yuan / ton from yesterday, down 2.35%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of May 21, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1.262 million tons, an increase of 25500 tons or 2.06% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4700 tons or 0.37% compared with this Monday. Inventory is at a high level and inventory accumulation is slowing down.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 53%, and that of polyester downstream is about 86%, which is higher than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, Hengli (Dalian) MEG line 2 was restarted on the evening of 16th, and the existing products were out of the furnace. At present, the load is gradually increasing.

3、 Analysis and prediction

At the beginning of this week, the price of glycol continued the upward trend of last week due to the recovery of crude oil price volatility. However, due to the continuous rise in inventory and insufficient terminal demand, the spot price of glycol futures fell at the weekend. It is expected that in the next week, if demand does not improve significantly, glycol prices will return to a volatile pattern.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene on May 9 was 3100-3550 yuan / ton (average price of 3270 yuan / ton); the price of pure benzene on Sunday (May 17) was 3100-3600 yuan / ton (average price of 3310 yuan / ton), 1.22% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: the beginning of the week continued last week, the pure benzene negotiation atmosphere is good. In the second half of the week, the domestic center of gravity weakened due to the negative decline in the external market, and the high-end price of pure benzene Market in Shandong fell.

3. Outside: on Friday (May 15), South Korea imported 378.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 13.67 US dollars / ton, up 3.75% from May 8; East China imported 382 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton, down 0.78% from May 8.

3. Crude oil: with the relaxation of blockade measures in many countries and gradual recovery of economy, the demand for automobile transportation and fuel is expected to increase. In addition, Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries announced to expand production reduction, boosting oil prices. However, the lifting of the blockade will lead to the risk of secondary public health events, which will aggravate the short-term fluctuation of oil prices. Brent rose $5.09, or 20.28%, this week from May 8, while WTI rose $3.35, or 12.8%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 54.79% and WTI by 51.42%.

4. Downstream industry: styrene operation rate has declined in the near future, factory inventory and port inventory have declined, but they are still higher than the same period last year; it is estimated that the port arrival volume is still large in the middle and late May. Styrene prices in Shandong Province fell 0.63% from the weekend to 5266.67 yuan / ton on the 15th.

This week, the trend of aniline was stable, and the market price was stable. On Friday, the price in Shandong was 4600-4690 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 4700-4820 yuan / ton, up 0.72% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: the recovery prospect of crude oil demand is good, but the negative still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates greatly.

2. Market: the downstream pure benzene enterprises are in a profit-making state as a whole.

In the short term, domestic pure benzene will follow the adjustment of crude oil and foreign market.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, the melamine market was temporarily stable on the 19th. As of May 19, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with yesterday and decreased by 0.65% compared with May 1. At present, melamine manufacturers have no inventory pressure for a short time, and the downstream demand performance is average. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 4800 yuan / ton. On the 19th, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4600-5200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week (5.11-5.15). The quotation rose from 1620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1623.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.21%, down 18.22% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 75.04 on May 15.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 18, 2020, there are 19 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are ethylene (19.61%), trichloromethane (10.53%) and octanol (6.67%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are potassium chloride (- 13.53%), hydrochloric acid (- 3.18%) and butanone (- 2.63%). The average price of this day is 0.32%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business association, in the near future, the price of raw material urea is rising slightly, the cost support is limited, and the downstream demand power is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of melamine will be dominated by consolidation and wait-and-see operation, and more attention should be paid to the price of raw materials and the transaction situation in the mainstream market

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products on May 11 was 4866 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price on May 15 was 4766 yuan / ton, with a drop of 2.05% this week. The commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on May 15 was 70.97, which was the same as yesterday, 35.15% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 11.15% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: chlorinated paraffin market is stable this week. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the raw material market is running smoothly with little fluctuation. The price of wax in the upstream feed liquid is running smoothly as a whole, with some minor adjustments. The market price of raw liquid chlorine is more stable and the demand is less.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, among which 5 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively chloroform (15.15%), ethylene (11.60%) and caprolactam (8.46%). There are 16 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were titanium dioxide (- 7.21%), propane (- 4.70%), mixed xylene (- 3.65%). This week’s average was 0.72%.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that due to the stable raw material market, the downstream demand is low, more wait-and-see attitude. The trend of chlorinated paraffin this week is not good. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be weak and stable in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were chloroform (15.15%); the main commodities falling were hydrofluoric acid (- 2.75%). Fluorite, R22, R134a price low volatility. This week, fluorine chemical products declined to different degrees. The specific product analysis is as follows:

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite remains low. According to statistics, as of May 15, the average price of fluorite in China is 2577.78 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite in China is stagnant. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2500-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2500-2800 yuan /The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2500-2900 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the domestic fluorite price trend remains low. First, with the gradual warming of the temperature, the domestic fluorite enterprises have started normal operation of their devices, with a high rate of fluorite operation, and the increase of domestic mines and flotation devices, the spot supply of fluorite in the field has increased, the supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the domestic fluorite price remains low. The northern fluorite manufacturers started gradually, the domestic supply of fluorite increased, and the price trend of fluorite in the field was depressed. Secondly, in the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the downstream are weak, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of fluorite in China has dropped. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry has declined, and fluorite price is expected to remain low in the later period.

As of 15 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 8830 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 7500-9000 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is sufficient , the market price continued to fall.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is sufficient at present, but the downstream market is not good, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is weak. In the near future, due to the price drop in the downstream market, and the price of fluorite in the upstream, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. In the near future, most of the manufacturers report that the loss of hydrofluoric acid is serious, Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price continued to fall due to negative influence. The demand for downstream refrigerants is not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid declines greatly. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower in the later stage.

In the near future, the price of refrigerant products keeps falling. As of the 15th, the price of domestic R22 products is 14833.33 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21666.67 yuan / ton. In the near future, the sales of the automobile industry is in a downturn, and the market trend of the downstream refrigerant of the terminal is poor. The demand for refrigerant keeps falling, and the foreign special events are serious. The export of refrigerant terminals is not smooth, and they are mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry is under construction Low level, weak after-sales demand for maintenance, overall, domestic and foreign demand are less than expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is down, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of whether the market has price or not is obvious. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 14000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products continues to decline.

The product price of fluorine chemical industry keeps falling, the downstream demand of the terminal is not getting better, the export market is not good, and the domestic market starts to maintain a low level. It is expected that the sales of fluorine chemical industry will remain low in the later period, and the market will remain stagnant.