1、 Price trend:

 

According to statistics, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene rose slightly this week. The weekend average price was 6900 yuan / ton, 2.99% higher than the price of 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 14.81% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

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Products: this week, the market price trend of paraxylene in China has increased. The domestic PX operation rate has maintained more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun plant is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, the operation of Fuhai Chuang plant is one line, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, Qilushi The operation of the chemical plant is stable, the petrochemical plant in Urumqi is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is rising slightly. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the external price of PX rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was $814-816 / ton FOB South Korea and $834-836 / ton CFR China. Affected by the high international crude oil price, the external price of PX rose slightly this week, and about 50% of domestic products need to be imported The closing price rise of PX outside market has brought certain good support to the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market has increased slightly.

 

Industry chain: the closing price of domestic crude oil fell slightly this week. As of the second day, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $61.18/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures market was $66.25/barrel. Overall, the closing price of crude oil in this week was volatile. As of the week of December 20, the U.S. crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) decreased by 5.5 million barrels compared with the previous week, and the U.S. crude oil inventory was 4.414 Billion barrels, 2% higher than the five-year average at this time of year. The total inventory of automobile gasoline has increased by 2 million barrels, about 5% higher than the five-year average at this time of year. Last week’s inventory of finished gasoline and mixed components both increased, while the inventory of distillate fuel decreased by 200000 barrels, 8% lower than the five-year average. In this week, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream decreased slightly, down 1.58% in this week. As of the end of the week, the price trend of PX market of raw materials in the upstream increased slightly near the 4900-5000 yuan self delivery negotiated in the PTA Market in East China. Recently, the starting load of PTA is about 82%, the terminal demand slightly changed, and the price trend of PX slightly increased. The polyester start-up load in the lower reaches is around 81%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is down to 61%. The profit of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined. The purchasing and stock up mood is general. The prices of polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mainly stable. The terminal demand has not improved significantly. The price trend of xylene market is limited.

 

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Industry: this week, the textile industry’s market trend remained volatile, the textile industry’s operating rate declined, crude oil prices fluctuated, and raw material PX market rose slightly.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, believes that the recent crude oil price volatility is the main factor, coupled with a slight drop in PTA market price, the price of PX external market has declined, the operating rate of downstream textile industry has declined slightly, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain the level of 6900 yuan / ton next week.

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1、 Price trend

 

The domestic isomeric xylene market fell this week, down about 0.96% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: affected by the coming of the long holiday in Europe and America, the market trend of this week fell back last week, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, the market is cautious. Compared with last week, the turnover this week was average, and the port inventory slightly decreased, about 23000 tons.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s oil prices overall showed a volatile trend, as of Friday, WTI futures rose 1.72%, Dubai futures rose 0.81%.

 

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In the downstream, in the PX market, the external price is about 822-824 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 842-844 US dollars / ton CFR China. Influenced by the long holiday in Europe and the United States, the downstream textile industry has entered the seasonal off-season of demand. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6700 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market continues to rebound slightly, and it is expected that PTA market will maintain a weak shock in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, at 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene is stable, and it is expected that the future market of o-benzene will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on the market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. Overall, with the long holiday coming in Europe and the United States, the toluene market is expected to have a shock rebound trend next Tuesday.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the pure benzene ladder rose this month and fell slightly at the end of the month. On November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5700-5950 yuan / ton, up 10.94% compared with the end of last month. This month, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on December 24-26, and the highest price was 5800-5950 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Crude oil: this month, the international oil price fluctuated upward against the favorable background of the improvement of Sino US trade relations and the deepening of OPEC production reduction. As of December 30, WTI oil price was 5.84% higher than last month, Brent oil price was 8.56% higher than last month.

 

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2. Product: the port inventory of pure benzene is lower than 100000 tons for two consecutive months, and it is likely to continue to decline. In addition, tight spot supply of pure benzene market this month brought positive results, stimulating the rise of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the atmosphere of pure benzene market negotiation turned light, and the focus of discussion was weak.

 

3. Downstream: styrene fell in wide swing this month, with the highest price of 7516.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 7266.67 yuan / ton, and the maximum price difference of 250 yuan / ton, a monthly drop of 2.02%. This month, aniline was mainly affected by the cost side, with a wide range of shocks. The end of the month is close to the festival, and enterprises reduce prices to stimulate shipment. Overall, it was down 2.01% compared with the end of last month. This month, the lowest price of aniline is 6266.67 yuan / ton, the highest price is 6800 yuan / ton, and the maximum price difference is 533.33 yuan / ton.

 

4. External market: in the first half of the month, the price of the external market continued to rise, and the Asian pure benzene market was forced to empty in January. In addition, in the later period, the Po shortage in the United States and the demand for pure benzene increased, which caused the price center of the external pure benzene to move up, and the price difference between domestic and foreign pure benzene widened. In the second half of the month, the price of pure benzene in the United States returned to rationality, and the arbitrage window in Asia and the United States was closed. Although the price of pure benzene in the external market was still at a high level, the domestic pure benzene led by it was weakened.

 

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3、 Future forecast

 

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the overall trend of crude oil market is still upward, but there is no further favorable stimulus, and the upper resistance is large.

 

2. Domestic and foreign markets: near the end of the year, the pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere is relatively weak. In addition, the downstream profit is insufficient, so the pure benzene support is weakened.

 

Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will weaken slightly in the later stage.

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