1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China this week was temporarily stable, with an offer of 246.67 yuan / ton, 159.65% higher than the same period last year. Overall, this week’s hydrochloric acid market is temporarily stable, January 17 hydrochloric acid commodity index is 64.91.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the quotation of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is average. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 230 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 60 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Business analysts believe that: upstream liquid chlorine Market in the near future is general, downstream rare earth, fuel demand is weak. Business analysts believe that the recent low consolidation of hydrochloric acid.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week (1.13-19), the domestic adipic acid market changed little, with a weekly decline of – 0.49%. The dealers’ quotation part fell slightly, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. As of last weekend, the mainstream quotation was generally 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the adipic acid market was weak and stable, with little change in prices in most regions. Some of the prices were lowered. On the basic level, the supply pressure was still large and the demand at the end of the year was weak, which was the main factor that troubled adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring any improvement to the downstream adipic acid, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the demand of adipic acid downstream is still not improving, and there is no peak of purchasing season before the Spring Festival in the downstream. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated, the market has not reversed the upward momentum, and the enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is closely related to the current low demand and low procurement, which is also an important reason why the adipic acid price did not continue the rebound Market at the end of December last year. From a regional perspective: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some prices have been lowered, mainly due to the light positions before the festival. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, from the perspective of upstream cost, although pure benzene has ended the rising pattern, it is still at a high level. As of January 19, pure benzene is still at a high level, but the transmission effect of high cost is restrained by the weak downstream demand, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the high price of pure benzene, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are compressed, and The extreme weakness of the market is confirmed by the weakness of demand and the failure of prices.

 
Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, before the year, the downstream procurement was not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stock up behavior did not appear. Most of the downstream procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stock up was not high. In 2020, the nylon 66 market was even depressed, and the downstream operation rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid was from December last year Since the middle of January, it has continued to decline. As of January 19, the decline was – 0.63% (as shown in the figure above). PA66 market has not improved in the near future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will still run in a weak position before and after the Spring Festival. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the middle and later stages. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, the peak of goods preparation has not come, the demand dilemma is difficult to change, and the price will remain weak.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic method in China was 6175 yuan / ton, down 1.20% from 6250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 13.84% year on year.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China fell slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fell. The downstream factories maintained rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure remained, high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. In East China, 6100-6300 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and 5800-6000 yuan / ton for naphthalene method; in North China, 6000-6200 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the main flow is on-demand procurement, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are under the situation In recent years, the price of industrial naphthalene has dropped, the price of NEFA phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, and the price of o-phthalic anhydride has been affected.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6300 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area is rising and the price is rising. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is rising and the port inventory is still at a low level. The external price of phthalic acid is rising slightly. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The detailed discussion is based on the fact that the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material is supported by the high price. The price drop of phthalic anhydride market is very significant Limit.

The downstream DOP price fell slightly this week, the price of isooctanol fell, and the cost of DOP raw materials fell. The price of DOP is low, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and falling, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and the downstream price trend is declining, but the upstream ox price has certain cost support, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will remain low, and the price will be maintained at about 6100 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s comprehensive market price is 14300.00 yuan / ton, and the PC market is stable.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the trading atmosphere was flat all over the week, the downstream purchase intention was weak, the market offer was temporarily stable, and there was little room for transaction fluctuation.

Industrial chain: the bisphenol a market in East China is stuck at a high level, and the traders’ offer is firm, with little intention of low output. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand side slows down, and the downstream factories are less likely to purchase goods from the market. The reference range is around 10900-11000 yuan / ton.

Industry: on January 14, the chemical industry index was 735, the same as yesterday, down 27.66% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.50% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

According to PC analysts of business club, stable operation of domestic PC market is the main trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market fell in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 8283 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 8112 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a 2.07% drop in the price within the week, a 10.76% drop in the price on a month-on-month basis, and a 24.44% drop on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly, while the spot market in the North rose slightly. In the cycle, Ningmei and Jiutai are hard to effectively supplement the downstream due to the influence of weather. The export of northeast suppliers is still limited, and the tight availability of goods in the North boosted the market slightly higher. East China is relatively abundant in supply. In the cycle, some sources of goods supplement the demand of the north, which supports the mentality of some businesses. In the middle and later part of the week, with the atmosphere of replenishment in the lower reaches of East China falling and Sinopec’s supply price falling, the market atmosphere returned to caution. But the short-term spot has not been effectively supplemented, the northern market is relatively strong. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 8450-8550 yuan / ton, and the price of sporadic northeast goods is high; the delivery price in East China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China will be reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton in a week; Liaotong chemical butadiene will be sold by competitive price of 78 tons of goods at Monday’s node, with a base price of 7910 yuan / ton and a transaction price of 8500 yuan / ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of goods this week is mainly for self use and mutual supply, and there is no export plan for now; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s 70000 ton / year butadiene plant will operate normally, with a quotation of 7750 yuan as of Thursday /Tons, an increase of 250 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is in normal operation, with a stable quotation of 8500 yuan / ton and a small amount of goods for export in a certain period. It is heard that the price is about 8100-8150 yuan / ton; the 60000 ton / year butadiene extraction unit of Shandong Huayu was shut down on January 8 and the restart time is uncertain; the 140000 ton / year butadiene extraction unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation on January 8, Caution is recommended.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: in this cycle, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies has increased, with the mainstream increase ranging from 200-300 yuan / ton. This week, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80%; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua and Weitai styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant is restarted on January 6, 2020; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; in this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was around 6.30%, and the mainstream domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant kept normal operation, but Maoming Petrochemical’s cis-4-polybutadiene plant was temporarily shut down, and only the first-line operation was resumed in the future, so the operation started slightly lower.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the start of the synthetic rubber industry was ok, and the replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival had certain support for the market. Due to the weather, the outflow of Jiutai and Ning coal sources was limited. On the negative side, East China is relatively abundant in spot goods, with limited transaction follow-up, and the northern supply side is cautious. In recent days, the weather has affected the circulation of goods in the north, and the spot performance in Shandong market is slightly tight. However, East China is relatively abundant in goods, and the later cargo is still replenished in Hong Kong, so the supply side is not sustainable. In the next cycle, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, there may be some replenishment follow-up in the downstream, but the supply of goods in Fushun and Northwest China is unknown, and some businesses are cautious. Under the influence of supply and demand fundamentals, butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly sorted out in a small scale next week, and it is suggested to pay attention to the spot supply in the north.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The quotation is 306.67 yuan / ton, down 2.13% year on year. On the whole, sulfuric acid market is stable this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 47.73 on January 10

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 210 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

（2） Industrial chain:

In the near future, the domestic sulfur market has stopped falling and maintained stability. The downstream monoammonium market is generally traded in a light manner, and the new order transaction is not ideal. The market for diammonium is also low and consolidated. The downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price stopped falling and remained stable, while the downstream construction started generally, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business and social sulfuric acid, the short-term market in Shandong is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, zinc market rose first and then fell this week, and zinc price rose in shock. As of January 10, the spot price of zinc was 18540.00 yuan / ton, up 1.24% from 18313.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week (January 5), up 0.82% from 18390.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.27% from the same period last year.

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic zinc Market

The output of refined zinc from January to December 2019 was 5.844 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 9.64%. It is estimated that the refined zinc output will be 6.24 million tons in 2020, up 6.78% year on year. The main reason for the sharp increase of refined zinc output is that the domestic TC has risen to 6500 yuan / ton all the way, near the winter storage, and the processing cost has slightly dropped in some areas, but the reduction range is limited, and the output is still increased. The output of refined zinc has increased significantly, which has a great negative pressure on the future zinc price, and the zinc market is negative.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that the price of zinc in LME market rose sharply after new year’s day, which is good for zinc market and good for domestic zinc price. The international economic environment has recovered, and the future zinc market is good.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, thinks: due to the continuous increase of zinc concentrate processing fee, the substantial increase of domestic zinc output, and the high enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises, it is expected that zinc output will continue to rise substantially in the future, which will have negative pressure on zinc price; however, with the recovery of international economic environment, the demand of zinc market in the future is expected to rise, and the momentum of zinc price rise is large; the Spring Festival is just around the corner, and zinc will be ready in the near future The momentum of the city’s rise has increased, and the momentum of zinc price rise is sufficient. Generally speaking, the recent positive and negative of zinc market is mixed, and the overall recent positive is greater than the negative. It is expected that zinc price will rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continues to be strong. As of January 9, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2195 yuan / ton. The price is 1.97% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.47% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic methanol market continues to be strong, with strong local trend. In terms of the mainland market, the atmosphere is fair in the near future, and the overall shipment is smooth. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory. Shandong, North China, central China and southwest China all move up to varying degrees. Due to the impact of rain and snow, local transportation in Shanxi is limited, and the shipment speed slows down. In terms of port market, with the trend of futures becoming stronger, the whole market is obviously moving up. At present, there are uncertain factors in the international macro level, with a strong wait-and-see mentality.

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has continued to rise in part, with reference to 270-360 yuan / ton for North line to Lubei, including 340-360 yuan / ton for Daqi to Lubei, 270-300 yuan / ton for road to Lubei, 310-430 yuan / ton for South line to Lubei, 160-240 yuan / ton for Guanzhong to Lubei, 200-260 yuan / ton for South line to Lubei, 190-310 yuan / ton for Shanxi to Lubei. From Guanzhong to Lianyungang, 250-260 yuan / ton. 350-360 yuan / ton from Ningxia to North Shandong, 720 yuan / ton from Xinjiang to North Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is temporarily stable. Under the influence of low demand in the downstream market, the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises’ delivery and inventory increased, and the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the recent low start of formaldehyde Market and some losses.

Acetic acid: the overall domestic acetic acid market rose slightly. Due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices in the early stage, the start-up of downstream industry is stable, the overall spot supply of acetic acid market is tight, which supports the supplier’s growth. In the short term, the demand of domestic downstream industry of acetic acid is stable, and there is no shortage of short-term supply of goods to rise again. However, considering the inventory pressure in the later spring festival, the overall growth of acetic acid market is expected to be limited.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market for dimethyl ether has a fair trading situation, and the price has risen broadly. Take Henan Province as an example. At present, the price adjustment range of mainstream enterprises is more than 30 yuan / ton. The central link price is 3260 yuan / ton, Yongcheng 3300 yuan / ton and BMW 3200 yuan / ton. The overall price rise of mainstream enterprises further stimulates the terminal purchase mentality.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, macro: the situation in the US and Iran is still tense, and there is a certain support for crude oil and methanol products in the short term; Arbitrage: under the arbitrage between the mainland and the port, partial shipments are still acceptable; Inventory: at present, the overall inventory in the mainland is not under pressure, and the inventory of some enterprises is low; near the Spring Festival, the transportation capacity is tightening, the short-term freight is on the rise, and the arrival cost is increasing. On the negative side, weather: in rainy and snowy weather, the circulation of goods is limited, and partial shipments are limited. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market may maintain a strong market in the short term, and the impact of freight changes on the market should be continuously concerned.

On January 6, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 126.45, up 3.62 points from yesterday, down 41.72% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 76.26% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: since January, the hydrogen peroxide market has ended its downturn and returned to the rising channel. The price keeps rising. As of January 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide is 1163 yuan / ton, 5.12% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

market analysis

Since January, the end of the hydrogen peroxide terminal hexanolenediamine market downturn, prices continue to rise, high enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide. Supply side: some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down, other manufacturers have low inventory, the market supply is in short supply, manufacturers and traders have raised prices for sales, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a rising market. The price in the mainstream region has exceeded 1300 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, or more than 5%.

As of January 6, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows: Shandong: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1070 yuan / ton; the price is 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of December.

Hebei: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1120 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of December. Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1300 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of December.

Hunan Province: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that at the end of December.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1350 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that at the end of December.

Industry chain: in January, the price of caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal rebounded to the bottom. As of the 6th day, the price of caprolactam rose by 1.22%. The price of upstream raw materials rose, and terminal demand picked up, boosting the price of caprolactam. With the support of price increase of caprolactam, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide improved, and the price of hydrogen peroxide ushered in an upward trend.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club believe that: as the Spring Festival approaches, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have been parking for maintenance, and the supply is insufficient, the future market price of hydrogen peroxide still has room to rise, and it is expected that the future market price of hydrogen peroxide will be easy to rise and hard to fall.

As of January 6, the total glycol inventory of East China’s main port was about 365000 tons, down 52000 tons from last Thursday, down 12.47%, down 71000 tons from this Monday, down 16.28%. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 172000 tons, down 16000 tons from last Thursday; Ningbo has 70000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 4500 tons; Taicang has 48000 tons.

In addition, due to the tension between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices rose, and glycol prices were cost supported.

In terms of futures, the trend of main glycol contracts in 2005 was stronger today, closing at 4753 yuan / ton, up 2.37%.

According to glycol analysts of business news agency, although the new glycol unit has been put into operation, it is still in the pilot production stage, with less output. The soaring crude oil factor has strong price support, and glycol has room to rise in the near future.