I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average ex factory price of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin on December 9 was 5066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin on December 10 was 5133 yuan / ton, up 1.32% per day. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on December 10 is 76.43, up 1 point compared with yesterday, down 30.16% compared with the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and up 19.70% compared with the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4800-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4800-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: WTI futures rose $0.22/barrel on Tuesday (December 10) at $59.24 in January 2020, and Brent futures rose $0.09/barrel at $64.34 in February 2020. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract rose 5.0 to 466.1 yuan / barrel in 2002. The upstream liquid wax market is running smoothly, and the mainstream manufacturers are delivering goods according to orders, so the market fluctuation is relatively small. The capacity of the liquid chlorine plant has been reduced, the market price in some areas has increased, and the subsequent driving force is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on December 10, 2019, among which the top three commodities are butanone (2.99%), pure benzene (2.42%) and chlorinated paraffin (1.32%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are ammonium nitrate (- 2.90%), sulfur (- 2.27%) and chloroform (- 2.27%). The average price of this day was – 0.08%.

III. future forecast

According to the analysts of chlorinated paraffin in the business association, the domestic market of chlorinated paraffin is in a stalemate stage, and the price of raw materials is slightly increased, but the demand of downstream enterprises is poor, and the chlorinated paraffin is slightly increased under the upstream and downstream game. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin in the later stage will be dominated by weak consolidation, and it is suggested to pay attention to the terminal demand.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic methanol spot market is narrow and low. As of December 10, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2125 yuan / ton. Prices fell 1.53% month on month and 12.55% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the performance of domestic methanol market is different, and the port market price rises first and then falls. In the domestic spot market, the dealers’ wait-and-see mentality is obvious at the beginning of the week. Prices in some regions are temporarily stable, and local demand is weak. The northwest guidance price has declined by 20 yuan / ton, which needs to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market. In the port market, the futures market surged higher and fell back, driving the fluctuation of the spot market, but on the whole, it moved up slightly compared with the previous period.

Freight: domestic methanol freight is arranged. For the part of Inner Mongolia North line to Lubei, the reference is 140-240 yuan / ton; for the part of South line to Lubei, the reference is 150-180 yuan / ton; for the part of Guanzhong to Lubei, the reference is 110-170 yuan / ton; for the part of Guanzhong to southwest, the reference is 160-180 yuan / ton; for the part of Shanxi to Lubei, the reference is 90-180 yuan / ton. The reference from Xinjiang to Lubei is 650 yuan / ton, and from Ningxia to Lubei is 190-210 yuan / ton. Part of the north line of Inner Mongolia to Hebei is 160-190 yuan / ton. Local heavy fog weather in winter, pay attention to vehicle operation.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: domestic formaldehyde enterprises offer temporarily stable. The methanol market in the upstream has a narrow range, which has little impact on the formaldehyde market. The downstream market is subject to environmental protection regulation, and the overall start-up has declined, the demand has shrunk significantly, and the overall transaction is light.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is weak. Although the profit of acetic acid is small, the spot market is still oversupplied, and the spot manufacturers compete passively in price reduction. The short-term market fundamentals tend to be negative and hard to change. The transaction in acetic acid market is insufficient. Wait and see the inventory accumulation of each manufacturer. The weakness of acetic acid market continues.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic price of dimethyl ether was stable as a whole, and the transaction situation slightly cooled. Except for the two lakes area, the sales of DME in the North may gradually return to steady state in the near future. Due to the terminal consumption inventory, the recent transactions are rarely active, and the price is mostly stable.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, olefins: the load of an olefin unit in Shandong has been increased, and raw materials have been purchased in the near future; crude oil: OPEC + has reached an agreement on production reduction in the first quarter of next year, which will support the storage of energy chemical products. On the negative side, demand: the local demand side is weak, and the real price is loose; supply: some early-stage parking devices are recovered, and the local supply is increased; main production area: the northwest guidance price is declining, or transmitted to the mainland market. According to the methanol analysts of the business club, the short-term domestic methanol market performance is different, and the market in some regions of the spot market is expected to decline. In addition, the northern winter haze and snowfall weather are frequent, so it is necessary to pay attention to vehicle transportation.

I. price trend

Propane Market stabilized first and then rose this week. The average market price of propane at the beginning of the week was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was 4142.5 yuan / ton, up 1.97% in the week, 10.67% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is fair. As of December 6, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4060 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4170 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4250 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4250 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4250 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton.

Propane is on the whole up this week. In December of the beginning of the week, CP prices rose slightly, which boosted the market. However, international crude oil is on a downward trend, with a negative attitude. The downstream is more cautious and wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipping is generally but not willing to decline. It is mostly adjusted slightly according to its own situation, and the overall stability of Shandong region is mainly. On Thursday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. In addition, the gas intake rose slightly, increasing downstream confidence. The enthusiasm for entering the market rose. The shipment situation of manufacturers improved significantly. Shandong province raised the price by about 70-100 yuan / ton.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

According to propane analysts of the business agency, CP prices rose slightly in December, crude oil went up, and LPG market went up, which all played a positive role in the market. Manufacturers’ mentality of improving shipment is relatively strong, and it is expected that there is still room for growth next week.

I. price trend

Pure benzene started to pick up on Wednesday after a slight decline on Tuesday this week, according to a large list of business agencies. The listing price of pure benzene enterprises was 5250-5351 yuan / ton last Friday, and 5250-5450 yuan / ton this Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the port inventory of pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, and the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight. This week, the domestic pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere was good, driving prices up slightly.

2. Crude oil: this week, the international oil price rose rapidly after a small drop, 0.5% higher than WTI on November 29, and 4.97% higher than Brent. This week’s positive factors for oil prices: U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the first time in six weeks, and OPEC agreed at the meeting to deepen production cuts.

3. External market: the price of pure benzene in the external market continues to rise this week, and the price difference between the internal and external market widens, which is good for the domestic market.

4. Related industries: styrene rose 1.37% this week due to the shortage of spot supply, slight drop in port inventory and favorable cost aspect; the demand in the downstream was soft, and aniline inventory was accumulated. In order to stimulate the downstream to take goods, aniline price was lowered twice this week, down 5.53%.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: the final result of OPEC meeting: expand and reduce production by 500000 barrels / day. The expansion of the production reduction agreement will benefit the oil price.

2. Domestic market: the spot supply is tight, the high external price supports the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene enterprises are expected to increase.

Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will recover slightly next week.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, polysilicon market in November did not continue the stable and strong market in October, but declined. Especially in the late ten days, the market gradually cooled down, but the pressure of supply and demand was not large, the market showed some rigidity, and the price drop was moderate. As of November 29, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall price of domestic polysilicon solar energy fell by 4.41%, and the average price offered by the enterprise to the outside world was 58000-60000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell by about 25% year on year. At present, the price of single crystal in China has also declined. The price range of compact material is 70000-730 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is narrower than that in October.

II. Market analysis

In the whole month, the domestic polysilicon market has cooled significantly. After going through the “golden nine silver ten” slow market, the current polysilicon market has entered a callback period. As the overall market temperature has not continued, the procurement remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the purchase price of polysilicon will continue to loosen at the end of the next month.

In terms of market supply, it is still dominated by oversupply. The domestic polysilicon supply performance is sufficient in the whole month. By the end of the month, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate, and the early-stage maintenance devices have basically been started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially the silicon materials with high proportion of polysilicon materials Factory. At present, there are 15 polysilicon producing enterprises in China, with an actual capacity of 396000 tons / year. Although some of them produce single crystals, the output of polysilicon materials is still close to 50%. At present, the price of polysilicon is loose. At present, the rise of the overall inventory level of polysilicon is also one of the factors affecting the price trend. In particular, the more severe the price trend of polysilicon materials is, the less optimistic it is expected to be by the end of the year Right.

Let’s take a look at the demand situation: since November, the demand for polysilicon has gradually cooled, especially the market price drop in the middle and late ten days has increased compared with the beginning of the month. The main reason is that the downstream polysilicon chips are the same as the upstream, showing the instability of supply and demand. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%. In addition, although the inventory level of polysilicon chips has changed Good, but the pattern of small factory bidding still cannot be got rid of due to the slow pace of de industrialization and weak market demand. Even though the production has been reduced by less than 50% of the utilization rate, the price is still not stable. In addition, the operating rate of downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises has declined significantly, so the demand for polysilicon has been reduced. Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market continues to decline this month, mainly due to the lack of demand. From the perspective of the current high operating rate of enterprises, there is also a certain risk in the medium term of the supply side, because there are some new devices put into production, which release part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with reduced load. If the starting load of enterprises in the later stage enters A step-by-step increase does not rule out the periodic surplus of supply. Especially, when the market demand has peaked at present, we can’t be too optimistic about the polysilicon market. It is expected that the polysilicon market will maintain a weak trend and the price will be difficult to reverse.

I. price trend

In November 2019, the “V” trend of domestic 1 × tin ingot Market, the average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month is 137512.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month is 138575 yuan / ton, up 0.77%.

On November 30, the tin commodity index was 70.59, the same as yesterday, down 29.59% from the highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 64.70% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis

Domestic market: in terms of the futures market this month, Lunxi, Huxi and spot markets all showed a “V” trend. The futures market fell back from the beginning of the month until it bottomed out around the 20th. The rise at the end of the month is mainly dominated by funds, and the Biqi mine output of Alfa Minh is affected. The company expects that the tin concentrate output in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be lower than the previous expectation of 2000-2200 tons. According to customs data, China’s refined tin import in October was 170 tons, down 46% month on month, and the inventory in the previous period fell to 2850 tons. In the spot market, the market inventory in East China and South China was also low. The futures market led the spot market to rebound at the end of the month under the multiple positive boost, and it rose 139000 yuan / ton all the way to a high consolidation. In terms of manufacturers, near the end of the month, the manufacturers are active in shipment, and the downstream procurement is limited. At the end of the month, some manufacturers plan to replenish goods, and there is no significant breakthrough in transaction, so the overall transaction atmosphere is weak. As of the end of the month, the premium of Yunxi in Shanghai tin 2001 contract was 800-1000 yuan / ton, the premium of ordinary Yunzi was 300 yuan / ton – 200 yuan / ton, and the premium of small brand was 500 yuan / ton – ping Shui.

Industry: U.S. economic data is good. Powell said in the Federal Reserve’s beige book that he is optimistic about the U.S. economic expectations. The U.S. stock market has set a new record, but the high U.S. dollar also suppresses the basic metals.

III. future prospects

In December next week, European and American data sets will have a certain impact on market confidence and the dollar index. In the near future, the fund tolerance is high and the performance is loose. The domestic basic metals may be in the final rush active state before the end of the year. It is expected that the spot tin market will mainly fluctuate in the situation of unchanged supply and demand

I. price data

This week (11.25-11.29), the price of refined petroleum coke continued to fall. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1013.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 980.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.50 yuan / ton in the week and down – 3.31% in the week.

On November 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 76.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.01% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.95% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was average, the delivery of medium and high sulfur coke was blocked, and the prices of some refineries fell slightly.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 57.77 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.11 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.59%; Brent crude oil is 63.39 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 63.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.76%. OPEC’s discussion on production reduction made the market cautious in trading, and the U.S. crude oil inventory and production increased. At present, the price of the international crude oil market is not strong. Downstream: the market performance of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum is average, and the price of graphite electrode is stable at a low level. The policy of limiting production in heating season will be implemented in November. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of November 29 is 14010 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are LNG (6.90%), coke (3.09%) and methanol (1.30%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were dimethyl ether (- 3.91%), petroleum coke (- 3.31%) and MTBE (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.3%.

III. future forecast

Analysts predict that the market price of local refined petroleum coke will continue to fall this week, the market demand for calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable at a low level, and the volume is average. In November, the heating season began to limit production and the downstream demand was limited. It is expected that the price of ground refined petroleum coke will be weak in the near future, and the price range may be around 800-1000 yuan / ton.