I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 14, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 416.67 yuan / ton, down 1.57% from November 1 at the beginning of the month.

II. Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of November, the market situation of phosphate ore has been in a weak state of consolidation, the downstream market demand is still weak, the on-site trading is weak, the enterprise sporadically supplies the orders of old customers, continues to digest the inventory, the new order quantity is scarce, and the stock pressure of the mine has been large. Under this sales pressure, from November 7, most of the mining enterprises and dealers began to pay attention to high-grade phosphate The quotation of ore has been adjusted accordingly. The quotation of ore enterprises has been adjusted up and down. Some enterprises are still in stable price due to pre-sales inventory. A small number of enterprises are on the waiting list. At present, the latest quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guizhou Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. is 390 yuan / ton (including the factory price of tax goods), 20 yuan / ton higher than the quotation in early November. The latest quotation of 28% phosphate rock is 3 70 / T (including the factory price of tax goods), 20 yuan / T higher than the quotation in early November; the latest quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guangxi songgan Trading Co., Ltd. is 385 tons (including the factory price of tax goods), 10 yuan / T higher than the quotation in early November; the latest quotation of 28% phosphate ore is 345 (including the factory price of tax goods), 10 yuan / T higher than the quotation in early November; the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. is 330 yuan Yuan / ton (including the platform price of Kaiyang railway station), 40 yuan / ton lower than the quotation at the beginning of November; 430 yuan / ton (including the price of tax car board) for 30% grade phosphate ore of Guizhou Xifeng phosphate ore Co., Ltd., which is the same as that at the beginning of November; 230 yuan / ton (Mabian price) for 26% grade high magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore of Mabian hengyetong Mining Co., Ltd., which is the same as that at the end of October.

Industry chain: the yellow phosphorus market is temporarily stable. Some enterprises offer high-end prices. Under the firm price, the market price is stable. The market state is slightly stable and tends to be strong. The market trading is not warm and not hot. Some enterprises in the market as a whole trade at a slightly lower price. Most enterprises wait and see. The current market transaction of new orders refers to 18300-18600 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market maintained stable consolidation, and on-site trading was still relatively light.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, it is expected that the overall stable and weak operation of the phosphorus ore market will be dominated in the near future. Influenced by the upstream and downstream demand as well as the on-site inventory, the price may fluctuate slightly to stimulate the on-site atmosphere.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 12, the quotation range of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and the market of domestic DMF was weak and volatile. The market of DMF fell slightly.

II. Market analysis

Products: as of November 12, the weak market situation of domestic DMF continued. The quotation of Zhangqiu Riyue factory was 4800 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi Yanchang Xinghua factory was 5000 yuan / ton, that of Haohua Junhua was 4800 yuan / ton, and that of Luxi Chemical was 5100 yuan / ton. Under the pressure of high inventory, the negotiation of actual orders is not good, the merchants actively give up the profits and take the orders, the downstream demand is limited, and the procurement is just needed,

III. future forecast

According to DMF analysts of business agency, the market of domestic DMF was narrowed this week

I. price trend

This week, the lead market (11.4-11.8) was slightly lower. The average price of the domestic market was 16481.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 16218.75 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.59% per week.

On November 9, the lead commodity index was 98.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.34% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.27% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, the spot lead market price is 16150-16550 yuan / ton, the spot lead price is slightly lower, the market is bearish, traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, but the downstream orders are limited, and the procurement is mainly renewable lead. In recent years, with the increase of lead ore processing fee, the operation rate of smelter and the high inventory of smelter, the demand for primary lead is low. At present, the consumption of lead-acid battery is off-season. Affected by the cost, the demand for primary lead is still dominated by recycled refined lead, and the primary lead is cold. Up to Friday, the mainstream price of domestic lead general brands offered a discount of 50 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract.

Major domestic events:

The demand for renewable lead environmental protection maintenance becomes weak, the short-term Shanghai lead period price continues to be weak operation: lead perspective: the demand for renewable lead environmental protection maintenance becomes weak, and the short-term Shanghai lead period price continues to be weak operation. Logic: the high price of Lun lead period has been greatly reduced, and the support for Shanghai lead period has been weakened. From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, the supply and demand of domestic lead is expected to weaken. Due to environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead in Anhui, Hebei and other parts of the country is limited. With the increase of lead ore processing fee, the starting of primary lead keeps stable and has a rising trend. In terms of consumption, the battery consumption of electric vehicles is in the off-season, the demand for replacement of automobile battery still needs to wait for a pick-up, the demand for replenishment of storage by battery enterprises becomes weak, and the overall consumption is becoming weak in the season. In terms of exports, domestic lead exports have been flowing out slightly in recent days, but with the further expansion of lead export losses, further outflow may be limited. At present, the inflection point of domestic lead ingot inventory has been confirmed. Therefore, the short-term Shanghai lead futures price is expected to continue to be weak.

International Battery Innovation Association: in the next few years, lead-acid battery is still the mainstream!! Before that, Yang Yusheng, academician of Chinese Academy of engineering, delivered a keynote speech on the root cause of frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles. According to academician Yang, a large number of lithium-ion batteries are piled up, which is the main cause of spontaneous combustion. It is suggested that low-speed electric vehicles should use lead-acid batteries for safety reasons.

Nonferrous Industry: the easing monetary policy caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the Sino US trade war negotiation ushered in a better atmosphere. The gold price fell. The central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan, with the bid winning rate of 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period, the RMB broke 7, and market confidence recovered.

III. future prospects

There are still a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. The economic weakness makes loose monetary policy in various parts of the world one after another. After five consecutive positive days this week, the U.S. dollar may have a high continuous rebound blocked. The domestic RMB is also collated near 7. The macro monetary policy is conducive to the base metals continue to show a rebound upward trend, but the more leading role is that next week is the delivery cycle of 1911 contract, More metal varieties will change according to the strength of their own fundamentals, in line with the structural change of the monthly price difference. Strong items are alert to high-level pressure. Weak metals or low-level key integers will test the support effectiveness, and the strength differences will increase.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by ortho phthalic method in China was 6325 yuan / ton, down 1.36% from 6412.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.81% year on year. The domestic good support was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride kept falling.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China was weak. The downstream factories maintained rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increased, and the high-end transaction was blocked. Recently, the factory inventory increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to be low. In East China, 6300-6600 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and 5800-6000 yuan / ton for naphthalene method; in North China, 6100-6300 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port has declined, and the stock in the port is at a low level. The external quotation of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are given, The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, and the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and recovering. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7400-7700 yuan / ton. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP is relatively small, and the downward pressure still exists. The downstream price trend slightly declines. In addition, the upstream ox price falls back. Affected by the cost decline, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain a slight downward trend in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of methanol in China is falling. As of November 5, the average price of methanol in China is 2146 yuan / ton. Prices fell 7.10% month on month and 28.79% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: domestic methanol performance is different, up and down are reflected. In terms of the mainland market, at present, the local market is weak, the downstream receiving is relatively limited, and some manufacturers sell at a profit; however, the sales volume in Guanzhong area is limited, and the price moves down under the tight support of goods. The traders and manufacturers of Lianghu Lake turn to Anhui, and the price of Anhui rises after the decline. In terms of port market, methanol price rose slightly with futures in the day, spot buying maintained rigid demand, and the increase was relatively small. In the short term, we need to focus on the arrival of imported ships.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province is weak due to entering the off-season trading. Among them, near 1050-1500 yuan / ton in Linyi and its surrounding areas, the high-end price is Zibo region price, and Linyi’s sentiment of purchasing goods and building inventory is not high.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market fell in the early part of the week, and the low-end mainstream was stable. In North China, trading intention was still weak. Affected by the fair, the logistics in some areas is limited, and the information of Nanjing large equipment is uncertain, so the market is relatively cautious. Northwest region fell sharply, due to monvey vinyl acetate parking, resulting in a drop in acetic acid demand.

Dimethyl ether: in the short term, in recent days, the downward trend of dimethyl ether has continued. The price has fallen to the cost line, and some manufacturers have reduced the negative pressure to relieve the inventory pressure. The seller has no intention of deep decline, short-term or stable, and may push up later.

III. future forecast

Business club point of view: on the positive side, supply: Xianyang’s sales volume is limited this week, all of which have been sold, and the price moves up under the tight support of goods. On the negative side, ethylene: at present, the price of ethylene is low, which suppresses the demand for methanol to a certain extent; freight: the local freight has declined under the light traffic and investment in the mainland, and the overall cost has moved down; downstream: local environmental protection, limited commencement of formaldehyde and plate, and weak short-term demand. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential finishing, with partial or continuous decline.

I. price trend

The domestic ethanol market is generally stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week is 5430 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend is 5420 yuan / ton, down 0.18% in the week. The price is 0.37% higher than the same period last month, and 2.83% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market is stable as a whole and fluctuates locally. The ethanol market in Northeast China runs smoothly, while small factories intend to keep up with large ones and offer for the time being stable; the ethanol market in Jilin province maintains stable operation, with large factories executing contracts and terminals on demand; the ethanol market in East China runs well, and the offer goes up under the influence of the rising freight in Northeast China; the ethanol market in Shandong province runs smoothly, with Yankuang ethyl production at full capacity, and terminal demand recovers without water Yes; the price of cassava alcohol market in Northern Jiangsu is relatively high, the supply of goods in the site is slightly tight, and the downstream takes the goods as needed; the cassava alcohol market in southern Jiangsu is stable, the downstream demand is light, and the price of alcohol is stable; the ethanol market in Henan Province is stable and light, with little fluctuation, and the number of vehicles to receive the goods is significantly reduced, so the liquor companies are temporarily stable. The domestic ethanol market is stable in a short period of time.

Industry chain: in the upstream, corn: after the national day, the state reserve auction continues to operate normally. Affected by the gradual increase of corn market listing in the production area, the trade subjects in the production and marketing area have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction rate of state reserve auction continues to decline. At the beginning of the month, the overall transaction rate of state reserve auction fell to 2.24%. The last auction of national reserve corn in 2019 held on October 17 was 3.13%, with the overall transaction rate continuing to be low and the average transaction price of 1706 yuan / ton. The overall outbound price was relatively stable. In addition, the amount of corn listed in the new season is gradually increasing, the supply of corn market in the production area is gradually loose, and the supply pressure of corn market continues to increase, resulting in the weak operation of corn market price in the production area.

In terms of the downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic ethyl acetate Market declined. The enterprise started to recover and there was abundant supply on the site. And the demand is low, the purchase is not good. The raw material acetic acid went down. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the market is expected to decline.

III. future forecast

As the pressure of environmental protection and security inspection eased, the supply expectation increased, and the liquidity of goods sources increased. As the price of corn fell, the price of northeast goods delivered to the liqueur companies rose. The ethanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic ethanol market might be stable, medium and small in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in October, the cobalt market suddenly lost its upward momentum, and the domestic cobalt price changed its upward trend in September and fell in shock. As of October 31, the price of cobalt was 276833.34 yuan / ton, down 7.82% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1, up 3.94% from the average price of 266333.34 yuan / ton on September 1. Overall in October, the cobalt market lost its aura and fell in shock, while the price of cobalt fell in wide shock.

II. Market analysis

LME spot cobalt price

It can be seen from the figure that from September to October, the spot cobalt price of LME rose first, then fell, and then remained stable. The overall international cobalt market is still optimistic, but the strength is not there. The overall trend of cobalt market is weak, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price is insufficient. At the same time, due to the influence of the cost of cobalt and the relationship between supply and demand in the future market, there is limited space for the international cobalt price to fall, the pressure on the cobalt price to fall is relatively small, and the international cobalt price is volatile and stable. In the future, the domestic cobalt price is lack of motive force and mainly subject to shock adjustment.

LME market March future cobalt price

It can be seen from the figure that the price of cobalt in LME market in March rose all the way from September to October, but the price of cobalt in futures began to adjust in October. The international cobalt market is still optimistic about the future market expectations, and the price of cobalt remains strong. However, due to the poor performance of demand side such as new energy vehicles at this stage, the upward momentum of cobalt market is weakened. Cobalt price is not strong enough to rise, and it is expected to adjust in the future.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year on year in September

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 80000, down 34.2% year-on-year, which has been down for three consecutive months. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 872000, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that from January to August. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three months in a row, and the decline has an expanding trend. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has not recovered continuously. There is a certain negative voice in the market, and the prospect of new energy vehicles in cobalt city is expected to decrease in the future. The demand for new energy vehicles in the future is expected to decline, which is negative for the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales fell year on year but recovered month on month

According to the data of China Academy of communications, in September 2019, the total number of domestic mobile phone market shipments was 36.236 million, down 7.1% year-on-year, and up 17.4% month on month; in January September 2019, the total number of domestic mobile phone market shipments was 287 million, down 5.7% year on year. Domestic mobile phone sales fell sharply on a year-on-year basis, but increased on a month on month basis. The demand for cobalt market is expected to decline, but the future market is optimistic. Although the sales volume of 5g mobile phones in September was only 497000, the growth rate was optimistic. 5g mobile phone has not yet ushered in rapid development, and it is expected to usher in 5g switching tide in 2020. In 2019, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market is not obvious, but the future market is still optimistic.

III. future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, the international cobalt market is no longer hot in October, and the price of cobalt fluctuates and adjusts, which has a negative impact on the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price has certain downward pressure. The poor performance of new energy vehicles in September is another incentive for the domestic cobalt price to fall in October. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three consecutive months on a year-on-year basis. The demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the negative pressure on cobalt price is further increased. The month on month growth of domestic mobile phone market brings a glimmer of light to the demand of cobalt market. Although the month on month growth of mobile phone sales does not mean that the mobile phone market has experienced rapid growth, the demand for spot cobalt has increased significantly. In the future, cobalt market is still optimistic, and there is still room for cobalt price to rise. However, due to the poor demand performance of cobalt Market in the near future, the short-term upward momentum of cobalt market is insufficient and there is some downward pressure, and the future market of cobalt price is still dominated by shock adjustment.