Commodity index: on November 27, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.93% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.92% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on November 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 16166.67 yuan / ton, and on November 27, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15966.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.24%.

Industry chain: upstream: in November, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decline. On the first day, the price was 11600 yuan / ton, on the fourth day, it fell to about 10800 yuan / ton, and on the 12th, it fell 200 yuan / ton again to 10600 yuan / ton. After that, the price is stable. This month, the overall price has dropped 1000 yuan / ton, down 8.62%; downstream: in the current winter, the procurement is relatively stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started work normally this month, with occasional environmental protection inspection, small production impact and stable supply of goods. Upstream costs continue to be reduced, and manufacturers’ procurement costs continue to be reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. From May, October and November to now, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the production impact is small, and the market mainstream quotation is small and down.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, in November, the North has gradually entered the warm season. The environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturer has little influence, the production is basically normal, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is good. The price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, was adjusted to 8.62%, and the market price of polyacrylamide fell in a step-by-step manner this month. Affected by the cost change, the follow-up stability may be slightly reduced.

On November 26, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 58.41 USD / barrel, or 0.40 USD, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 64.27 USD / barrel, or 0.62 USD. The recent easing of international tensions will ultimately play a role in maintaining global economic growth and energy demand, while OPEC is also expected to continue to limit crude oil production, which ended higher.

First, TASS, citing three sources close to OPEC, said the group and key partners such as Russia are considering extending the agreement for three to six months, which currently expires in March 2020. Affected by the news, oil prices rose slightly.

In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory recorded an increase for five consecutive weeks (10 weeks in 11 weeks); oil prices rebounded again due to the improvement of trade situation and the possible extension of OPEC’s production reduction agreement. Flynn, senior market analyst at price futures group, said there was a general consensus that the economic situation was improving. Tom finlon, director of energy Analytics Group, said optimism about trade and the possibility of OPEC + extending production reduction agreements and increasing utilization should support oil prices.

In addition, crude oil inventory data is also an important factor to support the oil price. At present, investors are still waiting for US crude oil inventory data, which is expected to decline. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release last week’s crude oil inventory report later Tuesday, while the energy information agency (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy will release the inventory report on Wednesday. According to S & P global Platts, analysts on average expect U.S. crude oil inventories to decline by 420000 barrels and gasoline inventories to increase by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended November 22.

In the view of the business community, the recent crude oil price has maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and there are some favorable factors in the market in the short term, including the geopolitical influence of maintaining stability in Iran and Iraq, the increase of OPEC production reduction expectation, the decrease of pessimism in the inventory data of the United States, etc., which support the stronger operation of the oil price. However, in the medium and long term, many institutions predict that the downward pressure of the global economy is large, and the expectation of slowing down crude oil demand is still a lingering shadow of the market. With the slow improvement of the trade environment, the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, on November 19, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6500 yuan / ton, and on May 26, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 6450 yuan / ton. The overall price fell by 50 yuan / ton, or 0.77% as a whole. This week, pet market was weak.

II. Cause analysis

Products: this week, the ester bottle market continued to show weak performance, the transaction atmosphere was flat, the rising space was limited, the terminal demand was weak, the polyester bottle market was short-term or weak adjustment, its sustainability needs to be observed, Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6550 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holdings Co., Ltd. 6550 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6550 yuan / ton.

Raw materials: the upstream PTA market was adjusted to a low level. Hainan Yisheng, Jiaxing petrochemical and Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical are all facing a restart this week. The downstream polyester just needs to be stable and has some support.

Industry: on November 25, the rubber and plastic index was 668, up 2 points from yesterday, down 36.98% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and up 15.97% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now) this week, the commodity market fell in shock, and the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry fell in weakness.

III. future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: downstream replenishment cautious, weak terminal demand, polyester bottle chip market short-term or weak adjustment.

I. price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5366.67 yuan / ton on November 18 and 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 22, down 0.62% in the week, up 23.55% compared with the same period last year

II. Market analysis

Product: affected by the environmental protection policy in 2019, the output of raw material yellow phosphorus is low, the operating rate is reduced, and the market supply is reduced. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the raw material end, with high consolidation and occasional fluctuation. This year, the price of phosphoric acid is higher than that of previous years, the downstream demand is relatively reduced, and the market is generally stable. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of November 22, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5800 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation in all regions.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained high. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. This week, yellow phosphorus market prices rose steadily. A week-long environmental inspection in Yunnan and Guichuan since Tuesday has led to a decrease in the operating rate of yellow phosphorus, a decrease in market supply, a slight increase in the price quoted by manufacturers, and a limited increase in the actual turnover.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%) There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%) This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, the fluctuation of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is not big at present. Most phosphoric acid enterprises are in a wait-and-see state, and the price is mainly stable and stable. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will still be stable and stable in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s trichloromethane market in Shandong Province remained stable at a high level, with the quotation of enterprises maintained at about 2650 yuan / ton in the week, up 35.2% from the beginning of November.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: this week, the spot supply of chloroform in Shandong gradually returned to normal. However, due to the shortage of supply in the early stage, the supply in the industry is still tight at present, the downstream market has a flat intention to receive goods, and the industry’s trading is slightly light. Shandong Jinling resumed production, Dongying Jinmao plant is recovering, Luxi Chemical industry has started 60%, Jiangsu Liwen plant has started normal operation, Jiangxi Liwen plant has started normal operation. At present, Shandong region offers about 2600-2650 yuan / ton, Jiangsu region about 3850 yuan / ton, Jiangxi region about 2950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market is up and down, with large regional differences. At present, it is about 2086 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is in shock and consolidation, the supply of the liquid chlorine market is improved, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to be lowered. At present, it is over reported about 500-800 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the market price of R22 refrigerant has been greatly increased. At the end of the year, the quota of enterprises is few, the supply of small packaging is in short supply, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. At present, about 12500-16500 yuan / ton is needed; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates industry has been affected by environmental protection, and the purchase is just needed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of commodity prices on November 21, 2019, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (1.48%), acrylic acid (0.90%) and crude benzene (0.70%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), aniline (- 3.32%), DMF (- 3.10%).

III. future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the market supply of trichloromethane is gradually returning to normal. In addition, at this stage, it is in the traditional off-season of trichloromethane, and the purchase intention of the downstream market is flat. It is expected that the market of trichloromethane will keep stable operation in a short period of time, and the future market will gradually decline.

On November 20, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply to $57.11/barrel, or $1.90, while Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.40/barrel, or $1.49. WTI rose 3%, Brent 2.5%. Crude oil prices fell sharply and rose sharply for two consecutive trading days, mainly due to the increase of 1.4 million barrels of crude oil storage announced by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday, which is far from the increase of 6 million barrels predicted in the API report.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose 1.4 million barrels for the week ending November 15, the fourth straight week, the EIA reported on Wednesday. The move follows a report yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute that crude oil inventories in the US increased by about 6 million barrels last week.

Analysts previously surveyed by S & P’s global Platts energy information forecast an average increase of 1.6 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week.

Analysts said the EIA’s crude oil inventory data was “basically in line with expectations”, and the reason for the rise in oil prices was that the increase in crude oil inventory was not as high as the API data showed.

In the view of the business community, the recent sharp rise and fall of crude oil prices and wide fluctuation are mainly due to the disturbance of too many short-term information factors. Including US crude oil storage data, geography, OPEC + production reduction expectation, etc., in the medium and long term, many institutions predict that the downward pressure of the global economy will be greater, the expectation of slowing down crude oil demand is still the lingering shadow of the market, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term due to the slow improvement of trade environment.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in November, in the first half of the month, the domestic polysilicon market did not maintain the strong market of last month, the price fell slightly, the market gradually cooled down, and the pressure of supply and demand increased. As of November 15, according to the business club’s monitoring, the overall decline of domestic polysilicon solar energy level was 1.06%. The average external quotation of enterprises was 60000-63000 yuan / ton, and the current price fell year on year About 22%. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 70000-750000000 yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystal is not much different from that in October.

II. Market analysis

First of all, take a look at the supply side of the market. In the first half of the month, the domestic polysilicon supply performance was sufficient. As of this week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises have reached the peak of operation rate. The early-stage maintenance devices have basically been started, but some enterprises have not yet recovered to full production operation, but the overall market supply is still slightly greater than the demand, especially from the silicon plant with a high proportion of polysilicon materials. From the price point of view, the price of polysilicon is still at a high level. Although the price is loose, there is not much decline. The main reason is that the inventory of polysilicon materials in the silicon material factory has not been greatly increased at present, and the enterprise does not have the intention to reduce the inventory. Even though the downstream ingot enterprises cut the operating rate or even shut down, this week’s price has not been significantly reduced.

Let’s take a look at the demand: since November, polycrystalline silicon demand has gradually declined, but there is still a rigid demand. However, the downstream polycrystalline silicon chips present the same unstable phenomenon of supply and demand as the upstream. The operating rate of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is only about 40%, and the operating rate of downstream ingots, battery chips and other enterprises has declined significantly, so the demand for polycrystalline silicon has been reduced 。 Most polysilicon manufacturers also execute early orders, and the new single rate is lower than that in October, so the price naturally declines to a certain extent.

III. future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the polysilicon market is still rigid and stable. From the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises has not expanded dramatically, which also confirms the relatively moderate market demand. However, the supply side is not totally risk-free, because there are some new devices put into operation at present, releasing part of the production capacity. Moreover, there are still a few enterprises that start with load reduction. If the start-up load of enterprises in the later stage is further increased, there will be periodic excess supply. In particular, under the condition that the market demand has peaked at present, we cannot be overly optimistic about the polysilicon market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, and we cannot rule out the possibility of continuing to explore in a small scale.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was weak in mid November, and the spot price fell slightly. As of November 18, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 8416.67 yuan / ton, down 1.56% from the beginning of the month.

II. Cause analysis

Upstream: Recently, the domestic propylene market price declined after rising, showing a peak trend. Propylene price started to decline from the end of October, and propylene inventory is still low. In the upstream, the overall market of the international crude oil market is relatively ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. In the downstream, the demand for shutdown and maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong Province has decreased, which has a negative impact on propylene market. The price of acrylic acid in China is stable this week, which has no impact on the price of propylene. Propylene oxide has stabilized after a slight rise in recent days, up 1.03% on a weekly basis. However, epichlorohydrin prices continued to decline sharply this week, down 9.22%. Its downstream epoxy resin restricted its market, mainly weak finishing in the short term, which had a suppressive effect on propylene market. Generally speaking, propylene market has declined after rising in recent days, generally maintaining stability. At present, propylene inventory is low, crude oil and PP market are still ideal, but some downstream units are shut down, so it is expected that propylene market price will still be lowered in recent days.

Product: in mid November, the overall price of PP market fluctuated and adjusted, with a weak callback. The upstream propylene market is volatile, with limited cost support for PP. In terms of supply, production of some shutdown and maintenance devices was resumed, and the operation rate of PP device rebounded. From the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the production capacity of PP also put a lot of pressure on the supply side, and the rapid expansion of production capacity of PP next year is basically foreseeable. It is said that in the fourth quarter, the domestic environmental inspection began, focusing on limiting the production of heavy chemical industries such as steel and chemical industry. This environmental protection policy may last until the end of March next year, which will affect the current PP social inventory slightly. In terms of demand, a small number of factories are in low demand and have no centralized replenishment. Under the influence of environmental protection policies, it is difficult to further improve the downstream operating rate, which is still low compared with the same period last year. Merchants offer to follow the fall, let the profit go single, the floor trading is flat. At present, the rate of petrochemical de stocking is slowing down. On the peripheral news, the report that China and the United States are expected to cancel the tariff increase in stages will boost the Asian market, but the International Monetary Fund will reduce the growth rate of global economic growth this year and affect the macro atmosphere.

III. future forecast

According to PP analysts of business club, domestic PP prices fell slightly in mid November. Upstream propylene market shocks, limited cost support. For the replenishment of downstream factories, there is no centralized purchase, and the strategy of just need to take delivery is adopted. Due to the improvement of domestic operation rate and the expansion of production capacity, PP supply is expected to expand in the long term, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be weak in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to the supply of PP in the near future.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

The average price of acrylic acid as of November 18 was 7200 yuan / ton, up 4.35% compared with last Friday (November 15), according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On the 18th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was 7000-7400 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market rose on the 18th. The supply of acrylic acid Market narrowed, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm increased, and the market price of acrylic acid increased. On August 18, the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. rose, mainly supplying contracts and stabilizing customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7200 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to drop slightly on August 18. At present, the market turnover is still around 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7250 yuan / ton. At present, the propylene inventory is still low, and the supply of goods in Northeast China has decreased. However, some downstream enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand has also decreased. The crude oil and PP market are still ideal. It is expected that the propylene market price will start to maintain stability in the near future. The downstream price of isooctyl acrylate rose on May 18, which is good for acrylic acid.

3. Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid in business association believe that the price of upstream propylene fell slightly, with limited impact on acrylic acid. The rise of acrylic acid is driven by the narrowing of spot supply and the improvement of downstream inquiry. The potential negative in the future is that the volume of transactions in the acrylic acid market is general, and the downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid Market will mainly digest the increase.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), on November 11, the domestic PVC price was 6670 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the domestic PVC price was 6742 yuan / ton, up 1.09% in the week, up 5.88% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, PVC futures are stable and upward, roughly equal to the spot market. In November, the futures market accelerated to subsidize water and increase positions. At present, it is close to the previous peak. At the same time, PVC social inventory continues to decrease, which is good for the market. At present, the spot is boosted by the futures, the quotation continues to rise, the trading center starts to move up, the market trading turns better, the merchants are optimistic, and the sales pressure decreases. At present, some enterprises are in the state of maintenance, slightly higher than the same period last year, the market supply is tight, good support PVC prices up. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 15, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6640-6800 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6730-6820 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6740-6850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 7000 yuan / ton. Prices have risen to varying degrees.

Industrial chain: after the adjustment in October, the capital return of each factory is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient. PVC market began to rise, the purchase enthusiasm of calcium carbide increased, the price is expected to rise in shock. Ethylene is on the rise this week. The price of ethylene market in Asia has risen sharply, and the industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival. The downstream product enterprises are generally acceptable, most of them need to replenish the stock just to maintain, and the transaction atmosphere is better.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are PS (2.54%), natural rubber (1.19%) and PVC (1.09%) There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were NBR (- 3.91%), HDPE (- 2.84%) and LLDPE (- 1.34%) This week’s average was – 0.41%

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of business club think: at present, the market environment is not good and seasonal consumption is off-season, so it is difficult to make a big improvement in the downstream of PVC. However, with the supply side supply still tight and the futures boost, it is expected that the future market will fluctuate upward.