I. price trend

In October, the domestic LNG market reversed and started the crazy inflation mode, which quickly pushed up to a high level. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of LNG on August 8 was 2866.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 15 was 3700 yuan / ton. The price of LNG rose 30.81% in a week, down 9.31% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 3000 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3900 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton. The price of liquid in various regions is rising crazily.

Market analysis: in recent days, the temperature has dropped, northern cities have gradually entered the heating period in winter, and regional cities have started to burn and replenish warehouses, which has driven up the overall demand, and driven market investment under the psychology of “buying up but not buying down”. Boosted by cold air, LNG soared by 30.81% for 8 consecutive days after the festival, rapidly rising to a high level, with a good atmosphere for market trading and investment, and the logistics and transportation enterprises may usher in a turnaround. At present, the environmental protection requirements are relatively strict. We actively build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system to fully promote the consumption of clean energy. The pressure of environmental protection, “coal to gas” has stimulated the rapid growth of natural gas demand. After the National Day holiday, the roads are restored to be smooth. There is a short-term “upsurge” of replenishment in the downstream, and the terminal demand is increased. Due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant has a strict loss. Heavy, based on cost considerations, LNG prices have risen in a large area. The trading price of feed gas may be affected by the bidding for feed gas of CNPC’s conventional liquid plant on May 15, and the arrival of winter supply and other favorable factors boosted LNG’s trend.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 40th week of 2019 (10.7-10.11), there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the energy sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are LNG (15.16%), LPG (7.98%) and methanol (3.55%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are MTBE (- 11.87%), gasoline (- 5.32%), Brent crude oil (- 4.54%). This week’s average was 0%.

III. future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business club, at present, due to the boost of cold air, the increase of market demand and multiple factors such as gas source bidding, LNG price is strongly supported, and it is expected that the liquid price will continue to push up in the future.

Price Trend

Lead market (10.07-10.12) rose this week and then fell. The average price of domestic market was 16993.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16887.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 0.63%.

On October 11, the lead commodity index was 102.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.30% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and up 37.72% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, Shanghai lead high declined trend, the price range between 16800-17280 yuan/ton shocks, spot prices followed the trend of Shanghai lead, early rush back later, this week, the mainstream spot lead trading range of 16850-17150 yuan/ton, before National Day, most manufacturers have fully stockpiled, after the festival delivery is limited, mainly to consume inventory. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brands will be 30 yuan per ton of the 1911 contract to Pingshui.

Domestic events:

ILZSG: The global lead shortage in July was 4,200 tons: London, September 18, 2008. According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global lead supply gap narrowed to 4,200 tons in July and 13,100 tons in June. In the first seven months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 47,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 35,000 tons in the same period last year.

WBMS: The global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons: London, September 18, 2019. According to data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons and that in 2018 is 265,000 tons. By the end of July, the total stock was 27,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to July 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 7.329 million tons, an increase of 11.70% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 3.577 million tons, an increase of 782,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States fell by 11,000 tons from January to July 2019. In July 2019, the output of refined lead was 105.27 million tons and the consumption was 105.74 million tons.

Non-ferrous industry: The market has just come back from the National Day holiday with weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates. The US index is hovering near the 99-point high. Domestic metal pressures are in the first place. However, with the opening of a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States, market confidence has been boosted, and domestic metal performance has recovered some of the decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In the next week’s domestic and foreign economic data sets, market expectations are weak. Under the downward pressure of the global economy, the US dollar index may be under pressure. The development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also establish the performance atmosphere of the market, and face delivery next week. Metal products will be more led by their basic trends.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of sodium pyrosulfite in China has been steadily advancing this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: After National Day, the overall demand of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market is still tepid. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite market is 1700-1950 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are concentrated in the vicinity of 1800-1850 yuan/ton. Supported by a small rebound in raw material costs, a small number of enterprises raised their external quotations after the festival. Influenced by the current sufficient domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory, the mainstream transaction price has not yet been adjusted, and enterprises mainly complete old orders. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: Soda price has been steadily moving forward this week, and sulfur price has risen by 8.05%. The recovery of raw material cost will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that a small rebound in raw material costs will support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future is expected to stop falling and recover.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average tax-bearing price of the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory was 6437.50 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average tax-bearing price of the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory was 6437.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19%, and the current price fell by 7.05% compared with last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Potassium carbonate market is weakening this week. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is not warm, activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual market turnover is insufficient, downstream purchasing maintains just demand, while the start-up rate of plant is low, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate Market declines. According to statistics from business associations: in October, the quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate main-stream factory is about 6300-6600 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotation is different.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the market of potassium carbonate fell this week, the market of potassium carbonate is not satisfactory after October, the mentality of potassium carbonate manufacturers is negative, the price of potassium carbonate is mainly consolidation in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market has risen sharply since the National Day. As of October 10, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2392 yuan/ton. Prices were 14.56% higher than the same period last month and 27.43% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Methanol inventory in Northwest main production area is low, manufacturers are not pressured to ship, prices continue to be strong. After the festival, the downstream market gradually recovered, some downstream enterprises actively replenished, the inland methanol market shipped smoothly, and the northwest main production area was strongly driven, the operators in the field had a positive attitude, and the market trends around the Bohai Sea and Huaihai Sea continued to rise. On the port side, the trend of the port is strong, and the gas purchases on the site are good, and the expectations of the operators for the later period are still acceptable. In terms of installation, a 600,000-ton/year methanol plant in Gansu was restarted, a 600,000-ton/year plant in Shaanxi was restarted, and several pre-parking units in Shanxi were restarted.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market has fallen partially, the raw material methanol market has a strong trend and the cost side has been supported. However, the formaldehyde factory in Shandong is still in general, the negotiations have weakened. Some large factories in Hebei are not well started and are still consuming raw material stocks. The price is temporarily stable, but the cost side is easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market or local follow-up mainly.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is weakening. Due to the overall supply after the festival, the stock of some acetic acid factories, mainly from spot, increased significantly during the holidays. In the past two days, prices have loosened to stimulate shipments. The mentality of the traders has been negative. Some of the traders holding the goods have also been able to sell on the market, and the mainstream market has weakened. The downstream of North China has not yet fully returned to normal. At present, the acetic acid start-up rate is high. Some factories are active in delivering goods, and the mindset of the operators is slightly weak. At the same time, most acetic acid plants have no inventory pressure, and the domestic acetic acid market is expected to weaken steadily in the short term.

Dimethyl ether: The market price of dimethyl ether has been adjusted as a whole. On-site trading is still acceptable. The average price of dimethyl ether in North China is 3407 yuan/ton, which is 53 yuan/ton higher than that in the previous working day. In terms of prices, the overall prices of Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Southwest and the areas along the Yangtze River have risen, while stable prices are dominant in some areas. Market prices continue to rise, manufacturers reflect little resistance to goods, good on-site delivery atmosphere, some manufacturers drive today, due to small inventory, so the price is higher.
3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, there is little pressure on stock in the market, the mentality of the manufacturers is strong, and the downstream gradually recovers, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is positive. Methanol analysts from business associations expect that short-term domestic methanol market or bid operation will dominate. In the latter stage, attention should be paid to downstream mentality, safety monitoring, operation of olefin plants, port inventory, freight level and futures trend.

Price Trend

In September 2019, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 132,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 135,712.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.81%.

On October 8, the tin commodity index was 68.78, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 31.39% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 60.48% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: Lunxi and Huxi rebounded after a series of callbacks at the beginning of this month, with Lunxi rebounding to 17 750 and Huxi rebounding to 14 590. In the absence of a significant improvement in the fundamentals, the trend of post-shock decline. Affected by this month’s retaliatory rise in the spot market, the monthly increase was 2.81%. At the beginning of this month, the main contract of Shanghai Futures Tin 2001 was affected by bulls, which rose by 11040 yuan/ton in a week. Due to the large increase of bulls and the departure of short positions, Shanghai Futures Tin once went up to the stop-and-rise board and then fell slightly. But the fundamentals of the rise did not appear too important news, more or more capital driven, so the market did not have strong support, the latter entered the trend of callback. At the end of the month, the mainstream market quotation is 135500-137500 yuan/ton. There are actually 135000 yuan/ton of low-cost goods near the market. At the end of the month, the price of next month’s ticket package for Shanghai Tin 2001 contract will be 700-1000 yuan/ton, the price of ordinary Yunzi will be 300-400 yuan/ton, and the price of small brand will be 200-500 yuan/ton.

Industry: Base metals are in a situation of blocked and pressured decline. Eurozone data is weak in the week. Britain is facing heavy resistance to leave Europe. The US House of Representatives announced a formal impeachment investigation on President Trump. The US dollar surged 99.2 points, surging 99.2 points, and basic metals fell all the way. The U.S. reported a 0.1% increase in consumer spending in August, down from 0.5% in July. Consumption slowed more than expected in August, because consumption is the most important component of the U.S. economy, which indicates that the U.S. economy will continue to decelerate in the third quarter. In terms of prices, the US core PCE index in August is still below the Federal Reserve’s policy target of 2%, but the core CPI in August has risen to a 10-year high of 2.4%. Inflation risk can not be ignored.

Import and Export: According to the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia in July 2019 decreased by 33% to 4,397.40 tons compared with the same period last year. Indonesia exported 6,575.80 tons of refined tin in the same period last year. On a year-on-year basis, exports in July were 42% lower than in June. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest exporter of refined tin.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on September 18, the global tin supply gap was 4,800 tons from January to July 2019. Total reported inventories were 6,500 tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included 6,000 tons of unexplained increases in Indonesian inventories. Global refined tin production increased by 3,000 tons from January to July 2019 compared with the same period last year. Asia’s output increased by 2,500 tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 8% year on year. The global demand for tin from January to July 2019 was 219.7 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 16.5 million tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In July 2019, the output of refined tin was 33,000 tons and the consumption was 35,500 tons.

Data released by the Beijing Branch of the International Tin Association (ITA) show that China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% from a year earlier to about 75,000 tons. ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China showed that the output of tin refining in June was about 12,500 tons, a 9% decrease in ring-to-ring ratio and the same ratio. China is the leading tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said that the decline in tin refining production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. Tin futures prices in Shanghai have fallen by nearly 8% since the beginning of the year, to about 134,000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below $140,000 would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. Apart from the PMI data which is difficult to be optimistic, only the employment data in the United States can be expected. The US Dollar Index over 99 is prone to rise and fall, which will increase the expectation of opening market after the festival. The only possible expectation is the willingness to replenish goods after the festival.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of 180 CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of September 30 was 4670.00 yuan/ton, up or down 3.78% from 4500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The fuel oil commodity index on September 30 was 94.58, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 18.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 105.25% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil trade was basically stable this month. The sharp rise in mid-term prices was mainly due to the impact of the attack on Saudi Arabia. At the end of the month, the mainstream price was around 4650 yuan/ton. On September 27, Singapore Fuel Oil (380Cst) was quoted at a spot price of US$395.38 per ton, down by US$16.72 per ton from the previous day (converted to RMB 2,797 per ton at the current exchange rate). As of September 25, Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (except asphalt) increased by 185,000 barrels to 203.69 million barrels; that of light distillates increased by 72,000 barrels to 10.07 million barrels; and that of medium distillates increased by 11.95 million barrels to 13.664 million barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of the business community, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71 / barrel at the beginning of the month, and it was $55.91 / barrel at the end of the month. The monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; crude oil was 61.08 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month, and 61.91 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, or 1.36% in the month. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the rise of international crude oil affected by the Saudi Arabian incident has led to a sharp rise in the ship-fired market. With the gradual stabilization of the situation, the price of crude oil has fallen, the terminal demand of the ship-fired market has returned to light, and the market has returned to rationality. Fuel oil market prices are expected to fall in October, ranging from 4500 to 4700 yuan/ton.