Price Trend

According to data from business associations, domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride prices fell slightly in September, with an average market price of 10 333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 10 166 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 1.61%.

II. Market Analysis

In September, the price of aluminium fluoride remained stable as a whole, while the price of individual manufacturers slightly declined: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is 9,400-9,800 yuan/ton, and that of aluminium fluoride in Shandong is about 9,400-9,900 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. to 11,000 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. to 10,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride.

Industry Chain: Domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend continued to decline in September, the recent market situation of manufacturers is poor, downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers continue to decline. As of the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 9300-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. Aluminum fluoride prices showed a steady overall performance in August, but at the end of September, individual aluminium fluoride manufacturers reduced their ex-factory prices to promote sales, and the market price of aluminium fluoride began to loosen.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid continues to decline, and individual Aluminum Fluoride manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices. It is expected that the price of Aluminum Fluoride will begin to decline in October.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic toluene Market showed a slight pullback this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.6%, due to the effect of oil price pullback and long vacation.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity, the recovery of oil prices, and the coming of long holidays in China, trading is becoming increasingly light. Despite the low level of port inventory support, the domestic toluene market is still showing a slight trend of retracement this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6400-6500 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low, at around 20,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi oil production, this week’s oil price rebound, spot Brent fell 3.8%, Brent futures fell 5.11%, WTI futures fell 3.12%, Dubai futures fell 3.98%.

Downstream, TDI, this week’s price trend is stable, short-term TDI is expected to remain weak and stable trend. Outside prices rose slightly from last week, with FOB ARA Toluene TDI roughly around $682 per ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and the short-term PX market price is expected to maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Due to the long-term holiday effect, the toluene market is expected to adjust its trend in a small way next week.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of lithium carbonate in East China market still showed a downward trend in September, but the overall decline of the market gradually decreased in the later period. On September 26, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 55400 yuan/ton, which decreased by – 7.67% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China on September 26 was 63600 yuan/ton, which decreased by – 5.07% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline from September to August, and the market capacity still showed a high level. Although the inventory of downstream material factories was at a low level, the demand did not meet expectations, and the lithium carbonate market was dominated by low-price shipments. In addition, due to the poor demand for ternary materials, the downstream demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate has not improved significantly, and the price has also declined. Near the middle of September, the overall price of lithium carbonate is still slightly stable and slightly declining, and the price decline has a significant slowdown trend. This is also due to the current inventory level of smelting enterprises has been repaired to a certain extent, which has a supporting effect on prices. At the end of September, the price of lithium carbonate tends to be stable. Due to the recent hot digital market and lithium iron phosphate market, the shipment situation of upstream lithium carbonate manufacturers has improved slightly, so the price of lithium carbonate has played a supporting role.

At present, the action of production reduction in lithium carbonate industry is not clear, which makes the supply side still have some pressure on prices, but with the seasonal changes, the weather in Qinghai gradually cooled, so industrial lithium carbonate production in the fourth quarter may be affected, which will also ease the supply-demand relationship. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 48,000 and 59,000 yuan/ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 57,000 and 68,000 yuan/ton.

According to the analyst of lithium carbonate, the current price of lithium carbonate is basically at a low level, and all manufacturers are mainly active shipments. With the arrival of the downstream consumer battery demand peak season, the demand for lithium carbonate purchasing may pick up slightly, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize for a while in the short term.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price rose this week, with an average weekend price of 2016.67 yuan/ton, up 1.68% from 1983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and down 1.02% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, recently affected by the upstream raw materials, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with the impact of environmental protection control, domestic. The downstream civil explosion industry stopped production more, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the range of price rise was limited. By the end of the weekend, the main stream of negotiations in Shaanxi was 2100-2200 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2000-2100 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 1850-2000 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was small. The amplitude is higher.

Industry Chain: Domestic nitric acid price has risen sharply this week. The market price is 1933.33 yuan/ton by the end of the week. This week’s price trend has risen by 12.5%. Domestic nitric acid market price has risen sharply, which is good for domestic ammonium nitrate market. Mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu province quote 1950 yuan/ton, and mainstream manufacturers in Anhui province quote 1950-2000 yuan/ton. Around 1950-2050 yuan/ton is quoted by Shandong manufacturers, and nitric acid goods are getting better. Rising prices in the upstream nitric acid market have a positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market price. The upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend is rising, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3226.67 yuan/ton by the end of the week. In addition, the upstream cost affects liquid ammonia. Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia start-up has declined, the supply of liquid ammonia is tight, the price of liquid ammonia is rising, the price of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 2900-3500 yuan/ton, and the price in the northwest region is in the range of 2700-2900 yuan/ton. The rising market of liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. For ammonium nitrate Market demand, the ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s inventory is at a high level. The nitric acid market is in a general market, and the price of nitric acid market rises slightly.

Industry: Recently, ammonium nitrate Market in general, downstream civilian explosion industry parking more, but the upstream raw material market prices of nitric acid rose sharply, ammonium nitrate market prices rose.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia market prices have increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to rise slightly later.

Saudi Arabia’s attack boosted global refinery profits and increased inflationary pressures in China

News: 1. Moody’s: The average Saudi crude oil output in 2019 is expected to be 9.7 million barrels per day. According to foreign media, many senior executives and board members in Saudi Arabia and Amy expressed doubts about the company’s goal of resuming production within three weeks. According to people familiar with the situation, they expect it will take twice as long to resume production as the current target. In a report last Friday, Commerzbank wrote that the actual impact of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure is still difficult to judge, as the country may dilute any potential problems given the importance of customer relationships and the imminent listing of Saudi Aramco. However, there are also reports that Saudi Arabia may resume production early next week. A source familiar with the latest developments said that Saudi Arabia has recovered more than 75% of its lost crude oil production and will resume full production early next week.

2. After the attack on Saudi oil facilities, tensions in the Middle East escalated. The Pentagon of the United States has ordered an increase in the deployment of troops in the Gulf to strengthen Saudi air defense and missile defense. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said Sunday (September 22) that to avoid war with Iran, the U.S. military surge in the Persian Gulf is for “containment and defense”.

3. From September 1 to 19, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day and 7 million barrels per day in August. Overall, the decline was not significant. Although Saudi Arabia guaranteed that its export volume was not greatly affected, its crude oil supply to some customers shifted from Saudi light to Saudi medium and heavy crude oil (the current tight market for medium and heavy crude oil). Buyer acceptance is higher, so after Saudi Arabia’s own buffer, the impact of the spot market is limited, more reflected in the impact on the price difference of different oil types.

Summary: Yesterday, although it was reported that Saudi Arabia will resume all oil production capacity next week, we saw that crude oil showed some resilience. Brent shock consolidation did not fall below $62 a barrel. It is expected that crude oil will still perform stronger before Saudi oil production actually recovers. EFS 3.5, B/W price gap 6.13, the United States, Asia refinery profits recently rebounded rapidly. Rising oil prices have exacerbated China’s inflationary pressures and reduced policy adjustment space. China’s imports of crude oil from Iran did not decrease in July, with imports of about 925,000 barrels per day, an increase of 4.7% over the previous month. As a major buyer of crude oil in the Middle East, China faces challenges in energy security (Iran accounted for 6.3% of China’s crude oil imports in 2018, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 12.3%. If Saudi Arabia’s supply is not fully restored by the end of September and the supply reduction lasts for two months, and the United States has recently increased its oversight of Iranian crude oil exports, China’s crude oil imports will face a shortfall, and China may open strategic crude oil stocks.

In August 2019, China’s stock supply days were 174 days based on crude oil imports and 132 days based on crude oil processing. Since October 2018, China’s crude oil imports to the United States have been intermittent due to trade frictions between China and the United States. By August 2019, China is determined to impose a 5% tariff on U.S. crude oil imports. If China imports U.S. crude oil to supplement the Middle East crude oil import gap, it will restrict China’s bargaining power with the United States. Saudi Arabia’s conversion of crude oil gap into product oil gap is conducive to boosting global refinery profits.

Since Saudi refineries have reduced their output by 1 million barrels per day (possibly partially passive and partially active), in the absence of short-term changes in demand, this is equivalent to the gap of converting crude oil into refined oil. It is expected that Saudi refined oil imports will increase considerably in the future. According to IHS statistics, the capacity of five refineries, totalling 1.5 million barrels per day, may be directly or indirectly affected by the damage of Abu Ghaig processing plant installations. These five refineries account for 52% of Saudi Arabia’s total processing capacity, of which gasoline accounts for 45%, diesel accounts for 40% and fuel oil accounts for 80%. Before the impact, Saudi Arabia exported 500,000 barrels of diesel oil per day, imported 30,000 barrels of gasoline and exported 100,000 barrels of fuel oil per day. Assuming that the affected refinery was offline completely, this would lead to a decrease in diesel oil exports to 100,000 barrels per day and an increase in gasoline and fuel oil imports to 300,000 barrels per day, respectively. This would have a marginal impact on the supply and demand of refined oil in Asia-Pacific region. Larger.

Judging from the current data of Saudi refined oil tanker life, it is not significantly affected at present. The main reason is that there are still some product stocks in the previous refineries. However, it is reported that the trading subsidiary of Saudi Arabia and Amy has begun to make inquiries on diesel oil and aviation coal in the market. It is expected that it will meet the demand of European and other customers in the future, but due to the fact that since then, the refinery still has some product stocks. The shortage of refineries has led to the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident on downstream refined oils, which may continue to ferment this month, thus boosting the cracking price gap of refined oils and spot discounts.

Price trends:

According to business association data monitoring, this week Sinopec Neighbouring Benzene execution price continued to rise. As of September 20, the executed contract price of O-xylene Sinopec was 6,700.00 yuan/ton, up 3.08% from 6,500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Prices fell by 9.92% over the same period last year. The price of o-phenyl rose sharply in September, the price of o-phenyl rose up and down, and the market of o-phenyl was good in September.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

Commodity Name, Quotation Type, Port, Weekly Price, Weekly Price, Unit
O-xylene FOB Gulf of Mexico 882.00 870.98 11.02 US dollars/ton
O-xylene CFR China 810.00 788.00 22.00 Euro/ton
O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 830.00 810.00 20.00 US dollars/ton
O-xylene FOB Korea 800.00 780.00 20.00 US dollars/ton
O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 820.00 800.00 20.00 US dollars/ton

Neighbouring Benzene’s external quotation rose sharply this week, while China’s external quotation rose by $22 per ton. In South Korea, the quotation of benzene in Southeast Asia increased by $20 per ton. The price of import phenyl rises, the price of port phenyl rises, the stock of port is low, and the market of future phenyl is good. Yangtze Petrochemical Co., Ltd. resumed operation of phenyl equipment; Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped shipment in September due to equipment failure; the supply of o-xylene warmed up, the shortage of o-xylene eased, and the good momentum of o-xylene market weakened in the future.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

Influenced by the rise in crude oil prices, mixed xylene prices rose sharply this week, raw material prices rose sharply, the cost of phenyl rose, phenyl market was good, and the momentum of phenyl price rise in the future increased. Overall, the cost of o-phenyl rises, and the future is good for o-phenyl.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, downstream demand is stable, the demand gap for phthalic anhydride is large, the market is good, and the driving force for phthalic anhydride to rise is large. As for plasticizers, DOP market is rising, and there is still a certain upward momentum in the future. The downstream market of o-phenyl is good, and the upward momentum of o-phenyl is increased.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, the market for o-xylene is good this week, and the price of o-xylene continues to rise. Influenced by the rise of crude oil, the price of raw materials mixed xylene has risen sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer prices have continued to rise downstream, and the rising market of industrial chain has a certain advantage for the market of phthalic acid. In terms of the start-up rate of phenyl manufacturers, Yangtze Petrochemical Equipment has been restarted after overhaul, Luoyang Petrochemical is expected to re-ship at the end of September and the beginning of October, and the supply of phenyl has risen, which has greatly alleviated the shortage of supply; in terms of the external market, the price of phenyl has risen, and the stock of port has fallen sharply and is seriously insufficient, which is good for domestic phenyl market. To sum up, the market of o-xylene industry chain has risen up and down, which is good for the market of o-xylene; the starting rate of o-xylene equipment has risen, the supply of o-xylene has increased, the supply of o-xylene has been alleviated, and the market of o-xylene has been positive and negative; the overall market of o-xylene has been mixed, and the driving force of the rise of o-xylene price in the future market has been weakened, and the pressure of decline has increased, The market of benzene in the city remained stable.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic ammonium sulfate market rose in mid-September. The average price of domestic ammonium sulphate was 623 yuan/ton on September 10, and 636 yuan/ton on September 20, with a price increase of 2.14%. On September 20, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 53.28, down 49.87% from the peak of 106.28 points in the cycle (2012-05-24), and up 45.38% from the low of 36.65 points on June 23, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Central China mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quoted 710 yuan/ton, Henan mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quoted 600-700 yuan/ton, Hebei mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quoted 600-800 yuan/ton, East China mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quoted 650-690, North China mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quoted 610-720. As of September 20, domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate rose slightly. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, merchants actively shipped ammonium sulfate. After the festival, prices remained stable. Demand for ammonium sulfate at the internal level is stagnant and the range oscillates.

Industry chain: According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable in mid-September. The price is 223.33 yuan/ton, down 52.73% from the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market was low and consolidated. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have started construction stably in the near future, and the market continues to be weak and weak. Compound fertilizer enterprises as a whole are flat, with large inventory, and some enterprises plan to overhaul. The wheat fertilizer is coming to an end, and the situation of fertilizer preparation this year is not very optimistic.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the domestic ammonium sulfate Market as a whole is cold, downstream demand is sluggish, inventory pressure is increasing, and terminal follow-up is insufficient. Although there was a slight increase before the festival and a sluggish rise after the festival, the overall range of ammonium sulfate is expected to be the main shock in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the copper market price on September 18 was 47500 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day, 1.37% from the beginning of the year and 2.6% from the same period last year, according to the data of the business association.

II. Market Analysis

Recently, copper prices have risen slightly, and some downstream demand shows signs of warming up. Statistics Bureau data show that copper production increased by 5.2% in August and electrolytic copper by 8.1%. On the supply side, the first half of the world’s copper output ring ratio has declined, indicating the tight end of the mine, whether the decline in copper supply can be transmitted to the smelting end, and whether the import restrictions of scrap copper will improve, the market still has expectations.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of Business Association believe that the market will boost copper prices after entering the peak consumption season in September, but the domestic economic data is weak, the pressure of copper price rebound is strong, and the short-term shocks are expected to rise mainly.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has fallen sharply after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 2830 yuan/ton, and as of September 17, it was about 2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong fell by 11.66%.

quotations analysis

Products: After the Mid-Autumn Festival, affected by the sluggish demand downstream, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong has fallen sharply. The overall start of the enterprise is normal, the spot supply is sufficient, the inventory pressure is not large, downstream traders often pick up goods on demand, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2400-2500 yuan/ton; in East China it is about 3050-3200 yuan/ton; in Jiangxi Liwen it is about 2950 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: Upstream, the natural gas market continued to decline after a short recovery. The average price before the Mid-Autumn Festival was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the average price was 2,900 yuan/ton as of September 17, with an overall decline of 2.68%. The liquid chlorine market was still acceptable. Influenced by poor downstream demand, mainstream enterprises began to ship at a low price. At present, more than 200-400 yuan/ton was reported by enterprises. Downstream, domestic refrigerant market entered the off-season demand sluggish, pharmaceutical and agricultural markets and solvent industries affected by the National Day, began to work smoothly, purchasing just needed.

Forecast for future market

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the overall supply of dichloromethane market has returned to normal and the spot is abundant. As the refrigerant industry is in the off-season and near the National Day, the downstream market started to decline, the market began to show a situation of oversupply. It is expected that in the short term, the dichloromethane market will be vulnerable to shocks.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic refrigerant R22 factory price continued to fall this week. On September 12, the average price quoted by mainstream manufacturers was 15166.67 yuan/ton, which was 7.14% lower than the average price of 17600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (09 days), and 18.02% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market price of R22 in refrigerant market is still at a low level. Major air-conditioning manufacturers are carrying out periodic overhauls. The overall demand for refrigerants is gradually decreasing, the market trading atmosphere is not high, there is no sense of hoarding in the downstream, hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. R22 does not rule out the possibility of further decline. 。 As of September 12, Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. had a price of 17,000 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. had a price of 14,000 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. had a price of 14,500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers for upstream products is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of some factories in the field keeps low. The domestic hydrofluoric acid factories have a general start-up rate. The supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the market price trend in the field is temporarily stable. Domestic trichloromethane prices of upstream products continued to fall, and supply in the industry was relatively stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that refrigerant R22 raw material end support is weak, terminal demand is sluggish, prices are gradually bottoming, and the trend is expected to remain weak in the short term.