On August 28, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 97.37, down 3.81 points from yesterday, down 30.66% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 81.69% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is declining. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 730 yuan/ton, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient at present, and the situation of on-site goods is poor in the near future. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are facing poor downstream demand. Continuous price reduction, hydrofluoric acid market prices fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices fell, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined.

The price of fluorite in the upstream slightly declined, reaching 3056.25 yuan/ton on the 29th. The low price of raw materials in the upstream has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the lower price of raw materials fluorite. The downstream refrigerant product plant starts at a low level. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline.

Price Trend

According to the commodity list data of business associations, formaldehyde prices in Shandong rose first and then fell in August. At the beginning of the month, the average price of DMF was 116.67 yuan/ton. At the middle of the month, the average price of DMF was 1180.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price of DMF was 116.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88%, and the current price fell by 23.93% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic formaldehyde market prices rose first and then fell. As of the 28th, Hebei mainstream factory quotation was around 1030 yuan/ton, South China mainstream factory quotation was about 1150 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream factory quotation was about 1060 yuan/ton, Jiangsu mainstream factory quotation was 1100 yuan/ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy produces 120,000 tons of formaldehyde annually, and the content of formaldehyde is 36.7-37%. In the early stage, the supply of formaldehyde market was affected by environmental protection, and the price of formaldehyde rose. In the later stage, the price of formaldehyde fell after the stock rose.

Industry chain: Upstream methanol is rising and then falling. In early August, methanol re-entered the downstream channel with the concentrated release of bad news such as lower futures, high port stocks and abundant terminal stocks in the mainland, driven by the centralized overhaul of upstream equipment, strong pull-up in the northwest and poor rainy season. At the beginning of the month, the price was 1977.00 yuan/ton, at the middle of the month it was 2224.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 208.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.50%. The downstream market demand is still relatively general. Influenced by the first rise and then fall of cost, the price of formaldehyde rises and then falls simultaneously.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market is affected by the depressed news such as demand loss caused by environmental protection before National Day and sustained high import arrival. The insufficient cost support results in the overall market turnover being light. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the business society chemical branch expect that the domestic formaldehyde price will be weaker in the near future.

1. Commodity Name: Magnesium Ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (2019.8.27): 15833.33 yuan/ton

Magnesium ingots (99.9%, non-pickling, simple packaging) from the main producing areas in China are charged with cash tax as follows:

Fugu area ex-factory includes 15 600-15 800 yuan/ton of tax, Taiyuan area 15 750-16 600 yuan/ton of cash, Wenxi area 15 800-16 000 yuan/ton of cash and Ningxia area 15 600-15 800 yuan/ton of cash.

3. Analysis Points: After the recent stabilization of magnesium ingot prices, today began to slightly downward fine-tuning. Towards the end of the month, some manufacturers have strong demand for return funds, the willingness to bid down, and the supply of low-price goods is increasing compared with the earlier period. The delivery of pre-sale orders is gradually completed. At present, the spot resources are relatively loose compared with the earlier period. At present, the delivery is general, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand.

4. Future market forecast: At present, supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be weak and stable in the near future, and the actual market transaction situation will be paid attention to in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic R 134a ex-factory price continued to decline in August, with the price at the end of the month (26 days) at 27333.33 yuan/ton, down 2.968% from the price at the beginning of the month (1 day) at 28166.67 yuan/ton, and down 6.82% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Recent refrigerant market has been slightly depressed, market prices remain low, the peak season cold fall situation continued. In August, major air-conditioning manufacturers have carried out phased overhauls, the overall demand for refrigerants has gradually decreased, and prices continue to decline. The demand of refrigerant R134a downstream is not good, the market continues to decline, and the raw material end is not strong enough to support the refrigerant R134a for the time being; the downstream wait-and-see attitude is obvious, just need to take delivery, R134a manufacturer bears the pressure to reduce the price of delivery, the current market price is mostly concentrated between 25000-28000 yuan/ton. According to the data of business associations, as of August 26, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 27,000 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 25,000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 26,000 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Blue Star Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was 28,000 yuan/ton, and Hunan Longxun Trade Co., Ltd. The price of Shanghai Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 25,000 yuan per ton, and that of Shanghai Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 25,500 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: anhydrous hydrofluoric acid prices of upstream products continued to decline in August. By the end of the weekend, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 101.18, which was 27.95% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 88.80% higher than the lowest point of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). Downstream demand is weak, market negotiation enthusiasm is weak, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, basic on-demand procurement.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the end of the current refrigerant R134a peak season, there is no other clear good news in the market, the lack of support at the raw material end, terminal demand is sluggish, in general, refrigerant R134a new capacity into the market, the market is pessimistic.

I. Trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices fell slightly this week, and the volatility of cobalt market remained stable. As of August 23, the price of cobalt was 262000.00 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 2.24% compared with 268000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 46.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

New Energy Vehicle Market

Data released by the China Automobile Industry Association show that for the first time in the year, the number of new energy vehicles declined year-on-year. In July, 84,000 new energy vehicles and 80,000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold, down 6.9% and 4.7% respectively from the same period last year.

Mobile phone market

According to the report released by CITIC, in July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 34.19 million units, down 7.5% from the same period last year; in January-July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 220 million units, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell, cobalt Market negative pressure increased.

International Cobalt Price

This week, cobalt prices in LME market remained stable, the international cobalt market remained stable, the cobalt market had limited profit, and the cobalt market had insufficient momentum to rise.

Future prospects:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the shutdown of Jianeng Cobalt Mine at the beginning of August caused a sharp rise in cobalt prices, and that the cobalt market was full of momentum. However, with the news cooling down, the supply and demand of the market began to affect the rise and fall of cobalt prices. In terms of demand, new energy vehicles fell for the first time in July, mobile phone market showed a downturn in 2019, and overall cobalt market demand dropped significantly. On the supply side, Glencore still has a large stock to meet market demand. There is no shortage of supply in the cobalt market. The effect of the shutdown of Glencore’s cobalt mine on global supply may not be obvious until the second quarter of 2020, and the supply-demand relationship will remain stable in the short term. The cobalt market has entered a stable period of industry, and it is expected that the fluctuation of cobalt price will remain stable or rise slightly in the future.

Price Trend

On August 19, the TDI commodity index was 72.31, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 70.85% from the cycle peak of 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and up 20.18% from the lowest point of 60.17 on February 22, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: According to statistics, TDI prices in East China market are declining. On the 19th, TDI prices in East China market were 13666.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.49%. TDI market in East China is weak and wait-and-see. Businessmen in the field pay more attention to factory news, good news is scarce, the overall atmosphere in the field is depressed, and inquiry delivery continues to be light. Domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference to 13,000 yuan / ton nearby, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference to 13,100-13,200 yuan / ton, a single talk, based on actual negotiations.

Industry chain: Upstream toluene, compared with the previous trading day, Sinopec’s enterprises today toluene listing price is flat. Shandong Geotechnical Refining Enterprises have a stable listing price today. Traders have raised their quotations slightly today, and the price in East China is about 5560 yuan per ton. As for nitric acid, the market demand is still acceptable and the market is stable for the time being.

Industry: Last week, the domestic TDI market was weak and gloomy, with few good news on the market, pressure on the mindset of the operators, a growing pessimistic atmosphere, the offer was downgraded to yield goods, low-priced spot and futures were frequent. With the price bottoming, a small number of transactions follow-up, it is difficult to effectively support the situation.

III. Price Forecast

TDI business analysts believe that the domestic TDI market is weak in the latter stage of consolidation, focusing on factory information guidance.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2182 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2224 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 1.92%, rising by 4.61% annually and falling by 25.59% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic market continued to rise this week. The benchmark price in Northwest China rose by 100 yuan/ton compared with the same period last week, near 1800 yuan/ton, but the port was relatively weak. As of Wednesday (August 14), the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China totaled 117.26 million tons, an increase of 1.27 tons annually, continuing to refresh the historical high. Although the 800,000 tons/year methanol plant in Western Shandong was stopped for overhaul this week, the methanol plants in Datang, Xianyang Chemistry and Shandong Rongxin were restarted one after another this week.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market is up narrowly. The market of Shandong and Hebei is affected by the rising trend of methanol, and the market offer is raised. The offer of other regions is temporarily stable. The domestic formaldehyde market starts in different places, but the overall situation is at a low level. The downstream is also in a downturn, and the actual single transaction is relatively light.

Acetic acid: This week the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise slightly. Soap acetic acid plant in Jiangsu recovered during the weekend, but the load of Celanese acetic acid plant decreased, the supply side was good, and the negative impact was basically offset. Subsequently, Tianjin Alkali Plant in North China stopped, Shaanxi extended acetic acid plant restarted and maintained low-load operation. The supply side of North China market continued to tighten. However, due to the shortage of stocks and active replenishment in the downstream, some manufacturers continued to raise their offer prices, which led to higher market transactions. Anhui Huayi overhauls as scheduled in mid-week, but downstream customers have stocked up, without affecting the market factors for the time being.

Dimethyl ether: This week, domestic dimethyl ether prices are on the rise, trading performance is slightly general. From the supply side, the overall performance of domestic dimethyl ether Market is relatively stable, about 20.00%, down 1.13% compared with last week, down 5.35% annually; in the demand side, except for some gas stations, there is no strong willingness to stock up at the grassroots level. This week’s sustained rise in dimethyl ether prices is mostly supported by the price of raw methanol, that is to say, the rise in costs has driven up product prices. This week, the domestic methanol market rose rapidly, with prices in central China rising by 130-200 yuan per ton. As a result, the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises have been significantly reduced and the prices of enterprises have been passively raised.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, shipments from upstream enterprises in Northwest China are still acceptable this week, or continue to bid next week; MTO in Shandong Luxi is expected to test in mid-August; Baofeng in Ningxia is scheduled to put into operation from the end of August to September; Shenhua Yulin and Silbang in Jiangsu are restored; Guohong methanol plant in Yankuang is scheduled to be overhauled for about 20 days. On the bearish side, external arbitrage remains, imports continue, and port inventories are still expected to rise. Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Qinghai Zhonghao and other maintenance devices are scheduled to resume in mid-late August. Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons is scheduled to start production in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin is expected to start production in September; Jingmen Yingde can produce products near mid-August. Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises shipment is still acceptable, or continue to rise next week, but the scope may be reduced, or in the range of 30-50 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon, the unloading of trucks in downstream enterprises such as Shandong Refinery has been delayed, but next week or continue to purchase on demand. In mid-late August, the supply of the Mainland tends to increase, and in the latter half of next week, the Mainland tends to be weak without significant improvement in downstream demand. Outside arbitrage still exists, imports continue, ships delayed by typhoon arrive late or one after another, port inventory is short-term or high-level difficulties, business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market is mainly weak.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 17,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 15,133.33 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.52%.

On August 16, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 98.73, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 38.83% from 161.39 points in the cycle (2019-07-28), and up 9.72% from 89.98 points on September 05, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices continued to fall this week. At present, the market demand is weak, traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the focus of attention has shifted downward. Downstream pick-up is more cautious. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 15500-16000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is around 15,000 yuan/ton. The main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 15 300 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, four electric furnaces were shut down in Sichuan and seven electric furnaces in Yunnan. The overall market supply showed an increasing trend.

Industry Chain: This week, the phosphate ore market continued to be weak and stable, and intra-site transactions remained light and normal. Yunnan 28-grade phosphate ore car quoted 280 yuan/ton nearby, Guizhou 30-grade phosphate ore car plate trading reference 360-390 yuan/ton nearby. This week, coke prices were stable, and the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market was 2,080 yuan per ton. The price of phosphoric acid in the downstream market began to fall sharply this week, ending the rising tide. At present, the purchasing volume of phosphoric acid enterprises is not large, and most of them are on the lookout.

On August 16, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 98.11, down 4.5 points from yesterday, down 21.05% from the peak of 124.27 points in the cycle (2019-07-24), and up 23.11% from the low of 79.69 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the business and chemical branch believe that the overall demand for Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus is light, construction has increased, downstream demand is in a wait-and-see state, there is no good support in the field, and prices are expected to remain narrow in the short term.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price trend was slightly lower this week, with the weekend price of 3106.25 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the beginning of the week price of 3112.5 yuan/ton, up 16.34% year on year, and the recent fluorite price trend was slightly lower.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic fluorite price trend slightly declined, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industry for fluorite demand has declined, the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, fluorite market is poor, and fluorite plant start-up rate maintained high, but the downstream demand situation. Generally, the spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite is on the decline. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2900-3 yuan/ton. 300 yuan per ton, fluorite prices declined.

Industry Chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is lower this week. By the end of the weekend, the factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 430 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.38%. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid is a negative factor in the fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite market is affected by the decline. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices declined, fluorite products on the spot supply is sufficient, the market is poor, fluorite market prices slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant has started to work normally recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry has been declining continuously, and the refrigeration industry has a poor market downstream. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst with business associations, believes that the price of fluorite will be slightly lower in the later stage, or about 3000 yuan/ton.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride has risen sharply this week, according to data from business associations. As of August 9, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 6666.67 yuan/ton, which was 6033.33 yuan/ton compared with that quoted by acetic anhydride earlier this week, with a price increase of 10.50%. The price of acetic anhydride fell by 7.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, domestic acetic anhydride ex-factory quotations rose sharply, and market prices rose. As of July 31, most of the region’s ex-factory quotation is around 7000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price has risen, the market quotation is the reference price, and the actual transaction price is based on actual negotiation. Hualu Hengsheng acetic anhydride equipment restart, Henan Ronghua chemical acetic anhydride stop, Huzhou acetic anhydride factory equipment overhaul, Jiachi chemical acetic anhydride equipment restart this weekend, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment stop, expected to restart on August 15, the factory equipment start-up rate is low, stock is limited, downstream sales of acetic anhydride is general, downstream customers. Household purchasing on demand, next week with the end of the overhaul of acetic anhydride enterprises, equipment start-up rate gradually increased, acetic anhydride rising momentum weakened, starting in mid-late August acetic anhydride manufacturers gradually resumed operation, acetic anhydride falling pressure gradually increased.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

As can be seen from the chart, the price of acetic acid has risen sharply this week, which gives ample impetus to the rise of acetic anhydride. This week, the overhaul of acetic acid enterprises increased, the start-up rate decreased significantly, the supply of acetic acid was scarce, and acetic acid had sufficient momentum to rise. As for methanol, the cost of raw materials for acetic acid has risen sharply in recent years, while the cost of acetic anhydride has risen. The pressure of future cost of acetic anhydride is greater, and the momentum of future increase of acetic anhydride is sufficient.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business associations, believes that the market of acetic anhydride continues to rise at a high level this week. On the supply side, Hualu Hengsheng acetic anhydride equipment has been restarted after overhaul, but Yankuang’s acetic anhydride equipment has begun to overhaul, the overall supply of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride is seriously inadequate; on the demand side, In terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid and methanol rose, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride declined more difficult in the future. Generally speaking, the supply of acetic anhydride will rise gradually next week, which will be bad for acetic anhydride. However, due to the rising price of raw materials, the cost of acetic anhydride will increase, and it is difficult for acetic anhydride to oversupply in the short term. The price of acetic anhydride will be maintained stable next week. From the end of the week, with the increase of supply of acetic anhydride, and the price of acetic acid and methanol Anhydride prices lost support, acetic anhydride prices fell mainly in the latter half of the year.