On July 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of 30 days, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

The recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 30 days, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton. The decline of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly declining, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly by the upstream transaction. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2800 yuan/ton and 3000 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

SITUATION: On July 29, the EG1909 contract opened at 4471 yuan/ton, the highest at 4584 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4471 yuan/ton and the closing at 4561 yuan/ton. Compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day, it rose 109 yuan/ton, or 2.45%. Trading volume was about 864,000 hands, and position increased by 37,464 to 352,100 hands.

News: 1. Hubei Chemical Fertilizer Branch of China Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with 200,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant, stopped for overhaul on May 15 and restarted on July 29. The product is expected to come out early next month. 2. The temporary breakdown of the 120,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Dodar, South Korea, is expected to be overhauled for one week. 3. It is expected that the East China Port will reach 143,000 tons of ships next week (July 25-July 31). Among them, 90,000 tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 23,000 tons are planned for Taicang Port, 20,000 tons are planned for Ningbo, 10,000 tons are planned for Jiangyin, and there is no planned arrival for Shanghai.

Spot price: spot and quasi-spot offer, 4550-4555, buy 4545-4550, 4545-4550, close this week; offer 4550 at the end of August, buy 4540, negotiate around 4450-4455; offer 4540 in September, buy 4520, negotiate 4520-4545. Futures market performance is strong, East China’s Ethylene Glycol Dollar market sells more when it is high, and is cautious to buy gas alone. Mainstream shipping offer is 555, and buying is 551-552.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Dalian Commodity Exchange Ethylene Glycol warehouse receipt is 6048, no change from the previous trading day.

Main positions: The top 20 positions announced by Dalian Commodity Exchange show that the purchase position of EG1909 contract increased by 12836 to 97386, and the sale position increased by 12936 to 113830.

Viewpoint summary: Ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is about 921.5 million tons, the ring ratio continues to decline; domestic ethylene glycol plant start-up rate is about 70.44%; coal ethylene glycol start-up rate is about 51.57%, the ring ratio has decreased. The start-up load of the polyester plant is about 84.79%, and the ring ratio continues to decrease. The production and marketing of polyester is about 120%, and the production and marketing of polyester is gradually warming up. China’s textile industry has witnessed an increase in passenger volume, totalling 7.44 million meters, of which 5.39 million meters are for filament and 2.05 million meters for staple fabrics. From July 26 to July 28, the shipment of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang mainstream reservoir area was about 38970 tons, while that in Taicang mainstream reservoir area was about 8600 tons. Fundamentally, the recent fundamentals of ethylene glycol have gradually improved and prices have improved. Technologically, the EG1909 contract is moving high today, with the increase of warehouse going up. The top of the contract is under regional pressure of 4580-4600, and the MACD red pillar is expanding. The downstream is about to enter the procurement cycle. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of ethylene glycol will remain strong. Investors are advised to do more on bargains.

Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market price was 3055 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3280 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 7.36%, which was 28.77% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market prices rose this week. Up to July 26, there is no quotation for the parking overhaul of Shengxin plant in Yutai, Hebei and Qinyang, Henan. Henan Lankao Huitong dimethyl ether inventory is low, do not quote for the time being. Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether plant failure, do not quote for the time being. Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd.’s Dimethyl Ether ex-factory price is 3300 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd.’s Dimethyl Ether ex-factory price is 3230 yuan/ton, Shandong Yuhuang dimethyl ether ex-factory price is 3320 yuan? The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. is 3230 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The domestic methanol market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2100 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was reported as 2009 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.29%, 26.52% compared with the same period last year. The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3810 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3816.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 0.18%, and the price fell 11.65% compared with the same period last year.

Around 17:45 on July 19, 2019, an explosion and ignition accident occurred in the C air separation unit of Yima Gasification Plant, Henan Gas (Group) Co., Ltd. The explosion did not involve the tank area of major hazards, and the production units had been shut down. The incident has had an impact on the dimethyl ether market. After the explosion, most of the four enterprises of Henan Medium Chemical Company have stopped, which has a great impact on the industry. Demand for dimethyl ether shrank in the hot summer and prices continued to slump, which caused the price of dimethyl ether, originally in the traditional off-season, to rise sharply. The market supply is decreasing, there are gaps in demand, grass-roots procurement is active, and the overall start-up rate is decreasing. At present, only a few enterprises start construction, manufacturers are more optimistic about the future market, a strong mentality, prices continue to rise substantially.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 29 th week (7.22-7.26) of 2019, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (7.36%), coke (3.24%) and gasoline (1.54%). There are two kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, methanol (-4.38%) and petroleum coke (-1.87%) respectively. This week’s average rise and fall was 0.72%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the rise is mainly affected by the explosion in Yima, the market is still in the off-season demand, the cost of methanol and liquefied gas market trend is weak, poor performance, terminal demand sluggish, negative market mentality. Additionally, the lower reaches mainly consume pre-inventory, with poor enthusiasm for entering the market and more wait-and-see. In the short run, the market will return to rationality. In the long run, the market bottoming period has passed and prices are difficult to fall to a low level. It is expected that the market will fall first and then rise.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations: as of July 25, the market price of melamine is stable. At present, the mainstream domestic price of melamine is 5800-7200 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with yesterday. Today’s market is temporarily stable.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Melamine market price is stable temporarily. Enterprises often execute pre-order, downstream demand is weak, and market benefits are limited. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5600 yuan/ton; and the mainstream quotation of melamine market in Henan is around 5900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream urea mainstream factory price of small granular urea in Shandong Province is temporarily stable on July 25, and downstream receipt enthusiasm is general.

3. Future market forecast:

According to the business association’s forecast, the short-term domestic melamine market will be mainly stable operation.

Recently, the domestic rare earth price has been falling continuously. Since May, the rare earth market has witnessed a sharp rise. The rising period has been maintained until about June 20, but then it has witnessed a sharp decline. The domestic rare earth market has shown an “inverted V” trend. According to the index of the rare earth sector of business associations, from early May to mid-June, the rare earth index rose from 330 to 412, but the resulting sharp decline, the index fell to 374 points, and the recent price of rare earth market has been falling.

Since the beginning of May, Myanmar has restricted the export of rare earths, dramatically reduced the supply of heavy rare earths in the domestic market, substantially increased the affected price of rare earths in China, and increased the price of heavy rare earths by about 40%. At the same time, the affected price of light rare earths in the domestic market has risen by as much as 40%. However, in June, the affected price of light rare earths in Myanmar has risen by as much as 40%. Since the latter ten days, the domestic rare earth market prices have fallen sharply. The domestic light rare earth market has fallen by a large margin of about 20%, but the heavy rare earth market has also fallen correspondingly. The price of dysprosium and terbium system has fallen by about 8%. Recently, domestic magnetic materials enterprises have entered the off-season of demand. In the short term, the demand for rare earth has not improved, and is affected by some manufacturers. The impact of low-price selling, domestic rare earth market prices continue to fall.

Recently, the price of light rare earth in rare earth market has dropped sharply. The price of heavy rare earth in rare earth market has declined slightly. The market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has been declining continuously. The supply of light rare earth is normal. The demand of light rare earth is not good in the near future, and the market price has declined. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, manufacturers control sales reasonably, but recent downstream demand has entered the off-season, some enterprises sell at low prices, and the market price of light rare earth has been declining. However, the supply of heavy rare earth market is still tense. Recently, large enterprise groups on the market are reluctant to sell. The market trend of heavy rare earth market is slightly lower, but the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry is poor.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic order of the rare earth industry will be rectified. Recently, the rare earth market is in the off-season of demand, and the demand for rare earth products is limited. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will still be in a downward trend in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was about 1643.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 22.61% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market is stable and good, manufacturers have sufficient orders, the current domestic mainstream light alkali factory price is 1430-1650 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream to the terminal price is 1650-1800 yuan/ton, this week, the heavy alkali market changes little, manufacturers shipment situation is relatively smooth, the market stock is bullish. It is expected that some manufacturers will implement the end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the manufacturer’s stock is sufficient and pressure-free, and the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed; the short-term downstream glass market mainstream or stable, with the traditional peak season approaching, the market is still not lack of exploratory operation.

Industry: In recent years, the starting load of domestic soda manufacturers has not changed much, the enthusiasm of downstream users and traders has increased, end users and some traders have entered the market to copy the bottom, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has continued to decline. In central and Eastern China, the joint alkali manufacturers control the orders, some of them keep sealing the orders, and some of them raise the low-end transaction price of light alkali by 20-30 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market is steadily improving, the number of maintenance manufacturers has increased, the supply of goods has decreased, the inventory of soda manufacturers has continued to decline, soda manufacturers intend to raise prices. It is expected that the soda market will continue to grow steadily and moderately in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

On July 22, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 109.62, which was the same as yesterday. It was 21.94% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 104.55% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable on July 22. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12080 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. Enterprises reflected that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot was tight at present, and the situation of goods on the spot was improved recently. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers were on the market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is going up by adjusting the ex-factory price. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to oscillate.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton in the week, down 4.45% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cryolite prices are running smoothly this week, and there is no price adjustment for manufacturers. Up to the 12th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7300 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic fluorite market price trend is stable this week. The average domestic market price is about 3150 yuan/ton in the week, up 16.88% year-on-year. This week, domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the start-up rate of fluorite plant has not changed much, but the downstream demand is normal, the spot supply of fluorite is general, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable. Downstream Electrolytic Aluminum: Aluminum prices continued to rise this week. Prices at the beginning of the week remained around 13823.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week they were about 13940.00 yuan/ton, with a 0.84% rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products of business associations believe that: at present, the device is running normally, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory and no pressure, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable, and the market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period.

On July 18, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 18th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend has been slightly lower, up to 18 days, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton. The decline of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising slightly, the market performance is general, and the market turnover is still acceptable, mainly affected by the above. The impact of increased travel costs, transaction stability, the majority of manufacturers inventory pressure slightly eased compared with the previous period, some maintenance-oriented, most manufacturers in North China supply performance is still acceptable, manufacturers in the northern region quoted price maintained in 3300 yuan/ton, northwest region quoted price in 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the normal shipment of manufacturers, Reasonable purchasing of downstream manufacturers and rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

I. Overall Trend

In the first half of 2019, the trend of the three major PE varieties in the domestic market showed shock and decline. LLDPE and HDPE in eastern China weakened in the first half of the year, and the trend declined mainly. LDPE first stabilized and then declined in the first half of the year. According to the monitoring of business associations, as of June 30, the ex-factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China had dropped to about 7900 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of LDPE 2426H had dropped to about 8312.5 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of HDPE 5000S had dropped to about 8900 yuan/ton; the decline ranged from 800 to 1400 yuan/ton. The price trend of PE in the first half of 2019 is lower than that in 2018, and the overall price difference is large, and the price peak in the first half is lower than that in 2018.

LLDPE market shocks and falls in the first half of the year. At the beginning of January, the average price of LLDPE market was 9250 yuan/ton, and at the end of June, it was 7900 yuan/ton. Within half a year, it fell by 14.59%, which was 14.69% lower than that of the same period last year.

LDPE market stabilized first and then fell in the first half of the year. The LDPE market average price was 9137.5 yuan/ton in early January and 8312.5 yuan/ton at the end of June. The price dropped by 9.03% in six months and 13.19% compared with the same period last year.

HDPE market shocks and falls in the first half of the year. At the beginning of January, the average price of HDPE market was 9883.33 yuan/ton. At the end of June, the average price was 8900 yuan/ton. Within six months, the price fell by 9.95%, 21.03% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Crude oil: In the first half of 2019, the crude oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. From January to mid-April, oil prices rose successively. In early January, they inherited the decline at the end of 2018 and reached a low point. But then, oil prices rebounded rapidly, rising all the way to a half-year high. Geopolitical relations have led to a decline in production in Iran and Libya. OPEC countries have stepped up their efforts to reduce production, with a clear position on reducing production, a significant reduction in production, and market mentality support. The first four months of the trend has been strong and upward under the favorable stimulation. However, due to the interweaving of geographic situation and macro-pressure, international tensions have also had a serious impact on oil prices. Crude oil prices have fallen, with 4% rise and fall in several days. Later, with the suspension of the situation in the Middle East, the market focuses on exhaustion of demand and oil prices have fallen sharply. Until June, the rebound was suspended. On Friday (June 28), WTI crude oil August futures settled at $58.47 a barrel, down $0.96 from the previous trading day, trading range $57.75-59.80; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $66.55 a barrel, unchanged from the previous trading day, trading range $66.08-66.84.

Ethylene: Recently, the polyolefin market began to decline, and the ethylene market was not active. Ethylene overall also showed a downward trend in June. Asian ethylene market prices fell in June, with CFR closing at $777-785 per ton in Northeast Asia and $698-704 per ton in Southeast Asia by the end of June. Ethylene prices in the United States rose first and then fell, with prices ranging from $281 to $293 per ton at the end of the month. Overall: The upstream crude oil suddenly rose, but the overall ethylene market demand is light and trading is normal. The styrene sector continued to fall, unable to sustain the ethylene. The atmosphere of market wait-and-see is strong. Businessmen pay more attention to the situation of supply and demand after the festival.

PE market in the first half of 2019 can be divided into three stages:

The first stage: January – March, the trend around the Spring Festival is weak, stable and downward. January is approaching the Spring Festival holidays, the lack of demand expectations leads to cautious mindset and mainly wait-and-see. With the coming of the Spring Festival holidays, downstream factories gradually enter the holidays, the demand expectations are insufficient, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weakened, the trading atmosphere of the market has weakened, and the atmosphere of the spot market is pessimistic. After the festival, downstream production resumed, the start-up rate increased, and some purchases were put on the market. However, Petrochemical stocks accumulated more, up to 1.1 million tons, Petrochemical stockpile reduction efforts increased, the terminal mentality was cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market was significantly weakened, and the contradiction between supply and demand increased. However, supported by the easing of trade war between China and the United States, tension in the Middle East and OPEC production reduction, crude oil has stepped out of a rising trend, and WTI and Brent have continued to rise. Upward crude oil plays a supporting role in the polyethylene market. PE market steadily declined.

The second stage: PE market rebounded slightly from early April to mid-April. Affected by the peak demand season of downstream agricultural film film in the first quarter and the continuing upward increase of oil price at the beginning of the month, some manufacturers are in the state of maintenance, which is good for the surrounding market, and the favorable price mentality of petrochemical industry is obvious. Under the influence of tax reduction policy, the market is also good, the trading atmosphere is more positive, and prices rebound slightly.

The third stage: from mid-April to the end of June, PE prices continued to fall. After entering the second quarter, as the demand for agricultural film and plastic film gradually decreased, the support of PE downstream demand for prices began to weaken. Influenced by the Sino-US trade war and other factors, plastic futures began to dive, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the continuous supply of imports has led to continuous price reduction. The middlemen and downstream are affected by the poor economic environment and demand, mostly purchasing on demand and operating in low warehouses. As a result, PE’s social inventory declined slowly and remained at a historic high level. Some petrochemical companies cancelled the price increase sales and lowered the ex-factory prices one after another. Although crude oil and futures rose sharply at the end of the month and the merchants reported high tentative results, the terminal still maintained just in need of replenishment and the downstream demand was not good. With sufficient supply and high social inventory, suppliers can only gradually reduce their sales prices. It is difficult to close a high price deal. PE market continued to weaken.

In the downstream enterprises, PE downstream film materials began to operate at a low level in early January, and the start-up was maintained at 4-50%. Except for some large factories, most of the other factories were in a state of shutdown. Construction started gradually in the second half of February, with some factories operating at 5-60%. The demand for plastic film is slow, the order accumulation is not much, some large factories maintain production, and some factories are in a low starting state. During the peak season of plastic film demand in March, manufacturers accumulated more orders, and large factories started construction with high load, and the start-up rate was maintained at about 50%. In May, the start-up rate of PE downstream membrane materials gradually decreased, and the start-up rate was about 1-30%. The demand for plastic film has ended, and the start-up rate is about 3-40%. In the field of plastic film, the manufacturers’orders are insufficient to follow up. Most of them maintain a low level. Large factories maintain a high-load start-up, and the overall start-up rate is about 3-40%. Demand continued to be weak in June. A small number of agricultural film manufacturers maintained low startup. The demand for sunlight film increased compared with the earlier period. The startup of the manufacturer warmed up slightly, the demand for plastic film ended, and the manufacturer turned to shutdown.

Import and export: PE import volume in May 2019 is about 1.419 million tons. Among them, LLDPE imports 4343,000 tons; HDPE imports 675,100 tons; LDPE imports 3097,000 tons. In May 2019, PE exports totaled 25.3 million tons.

Output: According to network data, the total domestic PE output in January-May this year was 7.2434 million tons, up 1.474 million tons from the same period last year, an increase of 24.12%. From the above data, it can be seen that although the peak period of equipment maintenance began in May, the domestic PE output did not decrease, but increased slightly. Compared with the same period last year, the overall domestic PE supply still increased significantly. After entering June, production is expected to decline due to factors such as equipment maintenance and safety inspection.

Industry insiders said: in 2019, the capacity of new polyethylene plant at home and abroad will exceed 8 million tons per year. New capacity basically delayed commissioning. In the case of PE equipment maintenance, domestic maintenance equipment began to increase gradually in late July. Imports were hanging upside down, windows were closed, downstream demand had good expectations, restraining market downward space, but the impact of maintenance on production capacity was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Some insiders believe that: in the short term, domestic petrochemical new overhaul devices are on the low side, some overhaul devices will start one after another, downstream start-up rate is general, Petrochemical depot reduction rate slows down, especially the international oil price falls sharply, resulting in lower ex-factory prices, suppressing buyers’buying enthusiasm, negative factors are dominant, PE market is still expected to adjust. Risk.

Business society data analysts believe that the third quarter is the traditional peak season. At present, crude oil prices are expected to continue to rebound. In the later stage, the demand for downstream agricultural film started slowly, and some factories had the demand for spare goods. The downstream demand improved, which just needed to support the market. After July, PE production plants with maintenance plans continued to increase. Futures continue to rebound, short-term upward capacity is insufficient. The market is expected to rise in the short term. But we still keep a cautious attitude.