On August 28, the rare earth index was 348 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 65.20% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), which was 28.41% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

The average price of metal lanthanum in rare earth metals is 407,500 yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 1.625 million yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 660,000 yuan / ton. The average price of lanthanum oxide in rare earth oxides is 322,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 1,142,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 410,000 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 316,500 yuan / ton. The average price of niobium alloy in rare earth alloy is 41,250 yuan/ton; the average price of niobium-iron alloy is 1.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the index of rare earth mining has been released, totaling 120,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with 2017. However, the price trend of some rare earth products in China has temporarily stabilized, and the price of niobium oxide has risen slightly. Most rare earth separation enterprises have stopped production, resulting in supply. Decline, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, and the recent recent procurement cycle, some commodity prices in the rare earth market rebounded slightly. Recently, the trading volume in the market is very limited. The major manufacturers of products are also cautiously waiting to see each other. The mutual inquiry has become more frequent. The downstream receiving goods are not actively leading to the low price of some rare earth products. The rare earth analysts of the business community are expected to be in the near future. The impact of the US trade war, the export of rare earth to the United States is subject to certain restrictions, but the recent rare earth market is about to enter the procurement cycle, it is expected that the rare earth market will rebound in the later period.

First, the price analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic acetic acid market is strong this week, and the price of acetic acid is raised in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the domestic average price of acetic acid was about 4,457 yuan / ton, and the weekend was about 4,500 yuan / ton, up 0.96% in the week, up 54.56% over the same period last year.

Second, the cause analysis

Products: This week, the domestic acetic acid market is gradually stable. There are more orders for long-term contracts and exports, and the industry is tight, and the company’s offer is firm. In terms of construction, such as: Hualu Hengsheng 500,000 tons of annual equipment production, daily production of about 1600 tons; Tianjin Bohai Chemical 250,000 tons / year plant down negative operation, daily output of about 450 tons, will return to normal in the near future; Yankuang Guotai 110 The production capacity of 10,000 tons/year was restored to 2,300 tons per day; the construction of Hebei Jiantao 500,000 tons/year was temporarily suspended this week, and production has resumed, with a daily output of 1,500 tons; Henan Shunda 400,000 tons/year is normal production, Nissan About 1200 tons. At present, the price in Henan is around 4,300-4,400 yuan / ton; the price in Shandong is about 4,450-4,600 yuan / ton; the price in Hebei is about 4,500 yuan / ton; the price in Tianjin is about 4,500 yuan / ton, and the price in Shaanxi is 4,300 yuan / ton. Around, the Jiangsu area is priced at 4,450-4,600 yuan / ton, the Zhejiang area is sent to the price of 4,650 yuan / ton, and the South China region is priced at 4,650-4,750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of each region is slightly lower than the quotation, which is mainly based on the negotiation.

Industry chain: upstream, this week, the methanol market fell slightly by 1.04%, up 25.58% year-on-year, currently around 2968 yuan / ton. This week, the downstream acetate industry performed steadily and demand was soft. The vinyl acetate market performed steadily. Due to rising raw material costs and limited profit margins, the PTA market gained momentum this week, with a sharp increase of 9.85% during the week, up 67.1% from the same period last year. The support for acetic acid prices is good, and the price is now 8452 yuan / ton.

International: The performance of the acetic acid market in North America is stable this week. The current price is about US$1,125/ton. The acetic acid market in Asia has increased from the previous period. The current price is 615-655 USD/ton. The European acetic acid market is still strong this week. The current price is 880 Euro/ton. about.

Third, the market outlook

At present, the acetic acid market has gradually stabilized, and production problems such as enterprise overhaul and lightening have been resumed. The spot supply in the industry has improved but it is still tight. Some downstream users have weakened their prices, and overall demand is not good, which has a negative impact on acetic acid prices.

The acetic acid analyst of the business community believes that the domestic acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and there may be a weak decline.

According to New York’s Bloomberg News on August 10, US oil producers expanded their drilling this week to fill the gap left by global supply disruptions.

According to Baker Hughes, US oil rigs rose by 10 to 869 this week, the highest point since this year. Since January, the US rig fleet has grown more than 115 rigs.

According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels last week to 10.8 million barrels.

First, the price trend
On August 8, the DMF market rose. According to the data of the business community, the average price of the sample enterprises on August 7 was 5,233.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of the sample enterprises on August 8 was 5,391.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.03%, and the price increased by 12.8% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, market analysis

Products: On August 8th, the market of DMF market rose. Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 5200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Qianhua Junhua was 5250 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Xinghua offer 5300 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from the previous day, Zhejiang Jiangshan offer 5800-6000 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue chemical offer 5500 yuan / ton. Hualu Hengsheng and Yangzi BASF equipment operate at low load, Zhangqiu Riyue Chemical 100,000 tons/year DMF unit load is about 60%, Luxi Chemical 100,000 tons/year DMF unit resumes normal operation, and the supply on the market is sufficient, DMF The volume of transactions is generally high, and manufacturers adjust their prices.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market price continued to rise. The price closed at 4048.75 yuan/ton on the 8th, up 66 yuan/ton from the previous day, giving DMF cost support. The downstream slurry industry operating rate is still not high, maintaining the just-purchased purchase, DMF Price increased.

Third, the market outlook

The upstream methanol has been rising all the way, and the downstream is in the traditional off-season. Therefore, DMF product analysts of the business community believe that the short-term DMF market will rise slightly.

According to statistics released by Statistics Canada, Canada’s coal output in January-May 2018 was 22.969 million tons, down 7.8% year-on-year; coal exports were 123.32 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year. Among them, coal output in May was 4.069 million tons, down 16.7% year-on-year; coal exports were 2.595 million tons, down 9.9% year-on-year.

First, the price trend
According to the monitoring of commodity data of the business community, the domestic acetone market is generally stable. At the end of the week, domestic enterprises quoted at 4,743 yuan/ton, and the intraday increase was 1.45%. The market price fluctuated upward.
Second, analysis and review
Products: At the beginning of this week, the price of acetone manufacturers was raised. After the adjustment, the market followed suit. The market is relatively stable. Installation: Domo Caproleuna’s phenolic ketone plant in Leuna, Germany, is scheduled to stop from September 1, with an expected 30-day phenol capacity of 150,000 tons/year and acetone capacity of 90,000 tons/year. Guangdong Huizhou Zhongxin 300,000 tons/year phenolic ketone plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on August 3-4, and it is expected to be overhauled for about 45 days. This week, the inventory of Huadong Acetone Port was 39,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from last Monday (July 23), including 19,000 tons of Huaxi stock and 20,000 tons of Hengyang stock. Market situation: Up to now, the price around Shandong Yanshan is relatively stable, the market offer is mostly at 4,750 yuan / ton; the offer in East China is 4,800 yuan / ton; the supply in southern China is tight, plus Huizhou Zhongxin overhaul, this week’s high, current offer 5300 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: This week, the price of raw material pure benzene is high, and its refineries are uniformly implementing 6850 yuan/ton. The market focus is high, and there is no low-cost supply in the market. In terms of raw material propylene, the profit drove the polypropylene plant’s operating rate to increase significantly. The demand for propylene increased, and the propylene market remained high, setting a new high in the year. At present, the overall market for acetone is stable, mostly for purchase. Downstream isopropanol market volatility, the terminal plant operating rate is stable, and downstream demand is just the mainstay.

Third, the market outlook

Good factors, the two major manufacturers in South China and Northeast China overhaul, manufacturers in East China and North China are interested in controlling the goods, the market supply is gradually strained. Negative factors, downstream demand in general, manufacturers just need to purchase mainly, the on-site operating rate is relatively stable. The acetone analyst of the business community believes that: at present, the factory overhauls, the warehouse controls the goods, the upside space is not large after the rise, and the short-term stability is the main.

The weak demand for stainless steel and high inventory pressure put the price of nickel under pressure. The main contract of Shanghai nickel once fell below 108,000 yuan/ton, but the macro pessimistic expectations, the limited supply of nickel market, and the continued decline of exchange stocks will provide nickel prices. Long-term support, nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend.

As part of the nickel sulphide mine was converted to nickel sulphate production, domestic electrolytic nickel production in January-June was reduced by 8% to 71,300 tons. Affected by environmental protection inspectors, the operating rate of major nickel-iron production areas in the country was suppressed to varying degrees. In June, the national nickel-iron plant operating rate was 37%, down two percentage points from the previous month. In June, high-nickel pig iron fell by 14.3% to 2.8. Ten thousand tons. The overall supply of nickel-iron in the country has maintained a tight pattern.

In the medium and long term, according to the State Council’s “Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, environmental inspection will become a normalization action. The operating rate of the ferronickel plant will continue to be affected by environmental protection. The actual increase in production of ferronickel is unlikely to reach market expectations. In terms of imports, the import volume of ferronickel fell by 30% year-on-year in January-March. As Indonesia’s Qingshan Phase III 1 million tons of stainless steel has been put into production, the Indonesian ferronickel reflow pressure has been significantly reduced. It is expected that ferronickel imports will continue to decline.

On the demand side, the demand for nickel for stainless steel has maintained steady growth, while the demand for nickel for electric vehicles and other fields has shown a rapid growth trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles nationwide in January-June was 476,000, a significant increase of 88.1% over the same period last year. The relevant leaders of the China Automobile Association said that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year were far better than in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole year of 2018 is expected to exceed 1 million. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “Resolutely Fighting the Three-Year Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control in Industry and Communication Industry”, it is estimated that the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million in 2020, and the demand for high-nickel ternary batteries is expected to maintain strong growth.

Market
At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market fluctuates upwards, the price of dry ammonium rises, and the price of wet ammonium rises. The shortage of supply in the ammonium chloride market is mainly due to the fact that many companies that have been shut down for maintenance have not started driving as expected. At the same time, the pressure on environmental protection has increased, and more manufacturers have cut production and stopped production of ammonium chloride. Recently, the market for urea is in a weak position, and the ammonium chloride market has also been affected. At this time, the demand for ammonium chloride has increased in the downstream, and the purchase of traders has also returned to a rational state. For the chlorination that wants to increase the price. Ammonium manufacturers are a bit embarrassing.

Compared with the same period of previous years, the orders for ammonium chloride manufacturers in July are still relatively large, and they want to raise prices but have insufficient strength. However, if ammonium chloride wants to raise prices, it depends on the late trend and downstream demand. decided. In 2018, the export volume of ammonium chloride has increased. In simple terms, the overall demand in the domestic market has increased in the north and the south. In June, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises and traders increased greatly. Full, although the new orders have been received in the near future, but the amount is not large, it is necessary to consider that the market for ammonium chloride will slow down.

Aside from the downstream demand, manufacturers and distributors are relatively optimistic about the trend of ammonium chloride, but urea prices have been going down, ammonium chloride still has a certain price advantage, whether it is ammonium chloride manufacturers or distribution. The merchants maintained a firm attitude and confidence did not receive any blows, but the urea price continued to fall in the near future, and the support effect on ammonium chloride gradually weakened.

Market outlook

The price of ammonium chloride may increase slightly. In the summer season of fertilizer production, the production of compound fertilizer will drive the demand for dry ammonium, plus the normalization of environmental protection and the centralized maintenance of the production and supply of spring fertilizer in ammonium chloride plant. If the supply surface is not greatly improved, The market will continue to be in a good shape, with a slight increase in local areas.