China’s copper production and consumption maintain a fast development speed
Since the reform and opening-up, China’s copper industry has maintained a faster pace of development. The continuous improvement of industrial chain, the continuous optimization of industrial structure, the continuous improvement of technical equipment level, the strength of copper enterprises and increasing international influence. At the same time, the structural contradictions in the development of copper industry in China are becoming more and more prominent. The structural problems such as the shortage of mineral resources and the productivity of smelting capacity are significantly larger than that of mine resources have not been effectively solved, which restricts the sustained and healthy development of China’s copper industry.
Become the world’s refining copper production and consumption of the first country. 2002, China’s refining copper consumption exceeded the United States, became the largest consumer of copper refining; In 2006, China’s refining copper production exceeded 3 million tons, more than Chile, became the world’s first refining copper producing country. 2016, China’s refining copper production reached 8.454 million tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous year, the average annual growth of 12%, “Twelve-Five” period of annual growth of 11.9%, refining copper consumption reached 10.5 million tons, the increase of 6.1%, the new century since the annual growth of 11.2%, “Twelve-Five” Average annual growth of 7.7%.
2016, China’s total copper consumption of 11.89 million tons, an increase of 6.6% than the previous year, total copper per capita annual consumption of 8.6 kg, growth of 6% than the previous year.
Since the new century, China’s copper resource guarantee ability has been improved, but the import dependence is still over 70%. China’s net imports of copper resources include copper concentrate metal content, coarse copper and refined copper metal content, recycled copper metal content, net copper metal content of copper. 2016, China’s net imports of various copper products, copper metal folding amount of about 9.89 million tons. 2016 domestic copper concentrate metal volume of 1.85 million tons, domestic recovery of copper about 1.8 million tons, two total domestic copper resources for 3.65 million tons. 2016, China’s available copper metal volume of 13.54 million tons, of which domestic copper resources accounted for the supply of 26.9%, compared with the 2015 decline of 0.5%, imports of copper resources accounted for 73.1%, compared with 2015 increase 0.5%.
The protection of copper resources has also improved. In the 2016, the proportion of copper concentrate metal in China accounted for 72.1% of the domestic copper concentrate supply. However, the proportion of copper concentrate metals that Chinese enterprises obtained from overseas investment accounted for 7.5% of the domestic copper concentrate supply, and the proportion of domestic copper concentrate metals accounted for 27.9% of domestic supply. If the amount of copper concentrate metal obtained by Chinese enterprises in overseas investment is included, the safeguard power of copper mineral resources has also been improved.
Development and operation status of copper industry
The copper industry overall appears the production smooth operation, the price oscillation rises, the benefit continues toward the good situation, but, the resource shortage, the innovation insufficiency, the financing difficulty and so on structural contradictions still not fundamentally solves, the industrial development continues to the good foundation to need to further consolidate. 2017 years ago 10 months, China’s refining copper production of 7.371 million tons, the growth of 6.3%, copper concentrate metal 1.416 million tons, the increase of 4.5%, copper (including duplication between enterprises) production 16.355 million tons, the year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The first 10 months, the domestic market copper spot average price of 48388 yuan/ton, Rose 32.1%. January-October, China’s forged copper and copper imports of 24.51 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 14.9% per cent, the import volume of 3.76 million tons, the year-on-year decline of 7.8%. Among them, October import volume of 330,000 tons, the chain down 23.3%. January-October, China’s copper concentrate imports of 20.33 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23%, copper concentrate imports in real quantities of 13.93 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. Among them, October import volume of 1.37 million tons, the chain down 6.8%. January-September, more than 1742 copper industrial enterprises to achieve profits of 38.21 billion yuan, an increase of 36.8%, accounting for more than the size of non-ferrous metals enterprises to achieve profits of 22.1%. Among them, the copper mining and election enterprises realize profit of 5.31 billion yuan, increase 139.6%, copper smelting enterprises realize profit of 11.31 billion yuan, increase 37.6%, copper processing enterprises realize profits 21.59 billion yuan, increase 23.4%.
The monthly boom index of the medium-color copper industry runs in “normal” intervals. The China nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the October 2017 medium-color copper industry monthly boom index of 33.40, down 0.42 points from last month, for the first time in nearly 5 months a small drop, but still in the “normal” zone run.
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In October 2017, among the 9 indicators that comprise the monthly boom index of the copper industry, LME copper settlement price in the “hot” interval, the import volume index, total investment, housing sales area, production index, main business income, total profit is located in the “normal” interval; M2, power cable is located in “cold” interval.
Reference factors influencing copper consumption in developed countries
The consumption structure and copper recycling of copper in the United States have important reference. The United States is the world’s largest copper consumer and copper recycling countries in the 20th century, the United States copper terminal consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing construction, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing, industrial machinery and equipment industry, transportation equipment industry, consumer goods and general product industry. In the 2000, the total copper consumption and per capita consumption of the United States appeared inflection point, but still the world’s important copper consumption power. 2000 per capita copper consumption in the United States reached 15.1 kg, in 2006, although back to 12 kilograms, but still significantly higher than 2015 per capita consumption of less than 8 kilograms; 1986 to 2006 the United States, the average annual direct use of waste copper over 1 million tons, the average annual proportion of 28.2%, is the world’s direct use of waste of copper most countries. It will be an effective way to solve the problem of copper resource restraint in China by vigorously developing circular economy, establishing resource-saving society and improving utilization efficiency of copper resources.
The level of copper consumption growth is closely related to GDP growth. From 1978 to 2015, the growth level of copper consumption in China was about 0.9 with the linear correlation coefficient of gross domestic product (GDP). From 1986 to 2006, the change trend of copper consumption in the United States and the relative coefficient of GDP in this country is about 0.9. During the first decade of the new century, China’s GDP grew by about 10.5% annually, and the total consumption of copper in China increased by 9.4%.
Copper demand and copper consumption per capita are still increasing in China
As an important basic raw material of the national economy, copper has continued to grow in the fields of power, information, transportation, machinery and architecture with the development of economy and the improvement of people’s living standard. In the next 5-10 years, China’s urbanization is still in the rapid development stage, the national economy of all sectors of copper demand will be further increased.
Our forecast for the next 5-10 years, China’s copper demand may reach a peak, and then enter the platform period. Preliminary Judgment 2020, 2025 and 2030 the total copper demand in China is 14 million tons, 14.5 million tons and 14.5 million tons respectively. Among them, the demand for refined copper reached 13 million tons, 13 million tons and 12.5 million tons respectively. The demand of refining copper in China may reach the platform period during “Fourteen-Five” period, and the inflection point will appear. In the next 5-10 years, China’s per capita copper consumption is still increasing, but to reach 10 kilograms/person/year or so may enter the platform period. The recommended value for copper consumption per capita is 10.07 kg in 2020 and about 10.21 kg in 2025, followed by a possible inflection point. Copper consumption per capita in 2020 to 2030 is likely to remain at around 10 kilograms overall.
Countermeasures
Consolidate the foundation of mining industry and improve the ability of resource guarantee. To improve the ability of resource guarantee, one is to base on the basic work ideas of the development of nonferrous metal mining industry based on domestic, strengthening public welfare, relying on science and technology, strengthening management. The copper industry will closely revolve around the national prospecting action, through the implementation of the development of mining projects, with the domestic shortage of copper mineral resources as the focus, speed up the construction of foreign resources base, enhance the copper industry resources to support capacity. Second, through the implementation of overseas resources development projects, relying on the backbone enterprises with international operating ability, establishing the development mechanism of the benefit sharing with the resource countries, forming a batch of foreign copper mineral resources bases in the neighboring countries, Central Africa, Latin America and other resource-rich countries or regions, and enhancing the control power of our enterprises to the global resources. Third, we should actively develop urban mineral resources. At present, China’s non-ferrous metal scrap storage began to enter the continuous growth stage. The establishment of domestic recycling metal recovery system, domestic waste will become the most important source of raw materials for recycling copper industry.
From the traditional copper materials gradually to high-end copper material transformation, occupy the commanding heights of future competition. In the expansion of the application of copper materials, focusing on the development and application of high-strength and high conductive materials, copper for high speed trains, copper for electric vehicles, copper for environmental protection, copper for high heat dissipation, copper for electric connection, etc. such as high-speed train contact line, integrated circuit lead frame, photovoltaic copper tape, electric connection belt, calendering copper foil, internal threaded pipe, external screw pipe, high fin tube, seawater desalination heating pipe, green bathroom with silicon phosphorus brass rods, special ultra-fine enameled wire, copper clad aluminum wire, copper clad aluminum tube, aluminum clad copper tube, copper clad aluminum composite conductive row. In the close combination of market and science and technology development needs, the traditional copper material needs to gradually complete the transformation to the modern copper material, to high precision, high performance, environmental protection, energy conservation direction development. The implementation of industry to high-end development, the formation of a number of rational layout, distinctive features, industrial agglomeration of intensive processing industry production base, to meet the strategic emerging industries and the needs of major national projects, occupy the commanding heights of future competition.
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Further strengthen the copper futures market to improve the quality and efficiency of the role of the booster. With the increasing of China’s economic status, the pricing ability of domestic trading varieties represented by Nonferrous metals futures such as copper is increasing, the level of opening up of domestic futures market is increasing, the rules of delivery are further connected with international standards, and the scale of trade is gradually enlarged. The pricing ability of China’s copper futures market has gradually broken the existing monopoly pattern of European and American markets and formed a new international pricing system. At present, the opening price of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Futures has become the basis of the national spot market pricing, non-ferrous metal Enterprises in the formulation of purchase and sale contracts or pricing process and inventory management links, but also more and more use and reference to domestic, especially the Shanghai non-ferrous metal quotes. With the consolidation of the status of China’s copper production and consumption power, the domestic futures exchange and the copper production and trade enterprises should study together to further strengthen the role of the futures market in improving the quality and efficiency of enterprises.
Protect the ecological environment and promote the green development of industry. The development of copper industry should be the relationship between economic efficiency and environmental benefits, and the concept of green development should be clearly publicized. Strict access conditions, optimize the industrial layout, prohibit in the nature reserves, drinking water resources and other areas requiring special protection, large and medium-sized cities and their suburbs, residential areas, such as the high environmental requirements of the region to create new, alteration, expansion of heavy metal pollutant emissions projects. Strict control of resources, energy, environmental capacity does not have the conditions of the area of copper smelting capacity. In accordance with the development model of circular economy, we support the construction of a new type of nonferrous metal industrialization demonstration base with abundant resource base, complete industrial chain, distinctive features, efficient utilization of resources and friendly environment. vigorously promote safe and efficient, low energy consumption, environmental standards, comprehensive utilization of resources of advanced production technology, and effectively control the pollution of heavy metals from the source. Implement mandatory cleaner production audit according to law. We should strengthen the construction of heavy metal pollution treatment facilities and encourage enterprises to carry out advanced treatment on the basis of standard discharge.
To promote the deep integration of the two, to facilitate the transformation of raw material power to the great power. The current Internet, cloud computing, large data, e-commerce and other information technology rapid development, change or are changing the development of many traditional industry patterns, profoundly affect the national economy, society and people’s lives in all aspects. In the copper industry, it is an important support for China’s copper industry to promote the two-fusion effectively. The first is to promote the integration of the two deep, enhance the competitiveness of copper enterprises and discourse power. Second, to promote the integration of the two to promote industrial economic and social benefits. The third is to promote the deep integration of the two, improve the scientific and technological innovation, and promote China from copper raw material power to new materials.
Further development of copper and other non-ferrous metal consumption trend prediction research, improve the forecast warning level. As China’s national economy from sustained high-speed growth to the rapid growth and economic restructuring of the transformation and upgrading of economic environment at home and abroad, the development of scientific and technological progress, copper and other non-ferrous metals in the field of new applications will continue to widen the consumer domain. At the same time, the existing application areas may be replaced, the future domestic and foreign market demand for copper trend and demand structure will also change. Therefore, the study of copper demand in China, and the trend of copper consumption per capita, the forecast of China’s copper demand and the peak value of copper consumption per capita and the time of peak period is not the same, but according to the new situation in the timely continuous research, and to optimize China’s copper consumption supply structure, prevent supply shortages and overcapacity, To maintain the continuous health of the copper industry to put forward targeted recommendations, but also for the improvement of copper futures market is of great significance. According to the new trend of copper consumption, further improve the market structure of copper futures, conform to market development trend and demand, perfect the rules and systems of trading and delivery of copper futures market, as well as warehousing layout, further expand the breadth and depth of copper futures market and serve the real economy better. At the same time, we should further promote the application of large data in the industry, perfect the forecast and early warning system of nonferrous metals industry, continuously upgrade the forecasting ability and level of the nonferrous metals industry, promote the transformation and benefit of the nonferrous metal industry, and provide important reference for the government to strengthen macro-control and strengthen scientific decision-making
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