Operation in January 23rd, Sinopec Ji’nan Refinery Sulfur

plant, liquid sulfur price at 800 yuan / ton (excluding 15 yuan freight), the solid

sulfur price in the 850 yuan / ton, 50 tons daily output.

Finance this week, potassium chloride market prices declined slightly, mainly due to lower rigid demand, the port high down slightly. Domestic Saline Lake group 60% crystal station prices remained at 1970 yuan / ton, the shipment of relief is limited, the overall transport is still relatively difficult.

In January 23rd, the domestic parts of potassium chloride Market overview:

Tangshan Huixin guardian 60% potassium chloride price at 1850 yuan / ton.

Lianyungang Lian Rui agricultural potassium chloride in Russia 62% crystal offer down 30 yuan to 2120 yuan / ton, the 60% price down 70 yuan to 2060 yuan / ton.

Banle of agricultural potassium chloride potassium 60% white offer in 2080-2100 yuan / ton, pink price at 1980 yuan / ton.

Qinghai Guotai Saline Lake 50% potassium chloride particles factory price 1550 yuan / ton, 57% potassium chloride powder price 1400 yuan / ton.

Market summary: at present, the border port continue to have new goods to Hong Kong, potassium chloride inventories continue to rise, and in the domestic potash fertilizer amount to add up under the influence of dealers have cut prices trend. But under the influence of transport, goods manufacturers blocked. Years ago the price of potassium chloride is expected to consolidate.

Network At present, the domestic market price of 85% formic acid in 4322.22 yuan / ton, the price unchanged from yesterday. Today, the overall market volatility is not acid, manufacturers and distributors of stability oriented, market reaction is relatively flat.

In January 18th, the Jinzhou City gold Hondar Chemical Co. Ltd. 85% formic acid water from the price of 5000 yuan / ton, goods. Changzhou City, Sichuan phosphorus chemical industry limited company 85% formic acid water from the net price 5500 yuan / ton, temporary price stability, normal sales. Hangzhou Chang Feng Trading Co., 85% formic acid water from the net price 5000 yuan / ton. Jintan local industry supply and Marketing Co. Ltd. 85% formic acid water from the price of 4300 yuan / ton, temporary price stability.

The normal operation of the equipment of Shandong Luxi Chemical acid, formic acid had no recovery started as device. Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd offer 5000 yuan / ton; Jinzhou Hondar gold price 4600 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Xiangcheng Three Chemical Co., offer 5500 yuan / ton; Lawton Shanghai Fine Chemical Co., offer 5300 yuan / ton. The main products of domestic ammonia upstream markets, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other areas of liquid ammonia prices remain stable.

The Spring Festival holiday approaching, the demand of downstream leather, chemicals and other industries deserted, due to high acid cost pressure, lack of support. Formic acid is expected in the short term the market will remain stable.

Public data show that the first three quarters of 2016, China’s new energy automobile production 461 thousand tons, an increase of 83.7%.

Chinese international futures research thinks, according to the projections of the current rate, is expected in 2017 China’s new energy automobile production will reach about 640 thousand units, is expected to total copper consumption of about 38 thousand and 400 tons, accounting for about 0.3% of China’s copper consumption.

The Ministry of China manufacturing “2025″ report, according to the plan, in 2025, Chinese brand new energy automobile sales will reach 3 million units, accounting for up to 20%.

“In 2015, China’s automobile production 24 million 830 thousand, if the growth rate of 25% per year in accordance with the electric vehicle production estimates, by 2025 China’s electric vehicle production reached 4 million 760 thousand units, with a total amount of copper is about 280 thousand tons / year, accounting for the current year copper consumption in China 2.5%.” China international futures research, limited short-term new energy vehicles on copper consumption growth dynamics, will not have much impact on the copper market.

But once in the United States over the past five recessions, accurate prediction of three times (1981, 2001 and 2007), copper is not Langdexuming. As has been widely used in electrical, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction industry, an important demand for copper is often used as a wide range of economic activities, the price trend and can accurately predict the global macroeconomic.

Commodities and who go

Crude oil and copper, who on commodity prices lead to more obvious?

Found China Securities Daily reporter comparing several index trend, LME copper, the copper (46470, -140.00, -0.30%) and the trend of the Mandarin commodity index trend is more convergence, falling into the channel in 2011; and Brent crude oil, U.S. crude oil and CRB index trend is more similar after 2011 – 2014 after consolidation, it fell into the channel.

It is understood that the CRB index is by the Commodity Research Bureau (Commodity Research Bureau) on the basis of a futures price index on the world market 19 basic economic sensitive goods price system, commonly referred to as the RJ/CRB index; and the Mandarin commodity index (CCI) is tracking 28 domestic listed commodity prices overall performance. The former reflects the world commodity movements, while the latter reflects the domestic market.

GF Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Guo Lei pointed out that the crude oil is a key period of the product, the first is that it is the mapping of industrial demand, it can not be replaced, it is entity attribute is much stronger than the metal; secondly, it is related to the depth of interest game between the resources of China and the industrial country, Price Bureau complex; again, it is one of the most important resources, on the middle and lower reaches of the industry is expected to have a profound impact, there is no industry restocking is expected, or make up long, crude oil price trend is a key determinant.

In 2017, Guo Lei believes that using crude oil as a coordinate (2016 oil prices in the month were between $32-54, $45 a year), the corresponding assets evolution may have the following three kinds of circumstances. A: the crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $50-60, and then have the corresponding moderate inflation, space debt stocks slightly better than stocks, bonds, asset cycle dominance; case two: crude oil price fluctuations in the range of $60-70 or even higher, the corresponding class stagflation, shares bonds double play, hedge assets dominated; situation three: crude oil price fluctuation $40-50, corresponding to a return to deflation, easing the debt is expected to rise, slightly better than stocks, asset light dominant.

“The situation is a high probability, followed by the two, pay attention to the assets of the two cases of logical pricing.” Guo Lei said.

Futures Daily reporter learned that, for the price of polyolefin on Friday rose sharply, before the device maintenance and delivery businesses is the main reason.

Last year before the Spring Festival, the downstream enterprises will actively stocking to deal with after years of production, the current price is usually out of the wave of rising prices. This year, the downstream enterprises stocking will is not strong, not rebound and corporate stock relationship polyolefin market recently.

In the view of Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang, the downstream enterprises are not actively stocking, a polyolefin price is high, the lower reaches of corporate profits is not good; two is subject to environmental inspection influence, downstream enterprises were forced to shut down. In addition, before the device maintenance is less, adequate market supply, so that the downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood.

“Recently, polyolefin maintenance device increased (especially polypropylene), petrochemical enterprises inventory also increased. However, the early polyolefin plant operating load is high, the downstream demand is not obvious peatlands, petrochemical business inventories are low, this phenomenon is somewhat illogical.” Investor futures analyst Huang Qingqing said, on the one hand, by the end of the contract goods customer concentration caused a sharp decline in petrochemical enterprise inventory; on the other hand, at present, petrochemical enterprises better profits, and near the film consumption season, the inventory of doubtful authenticity.

The Spring Festival is coming, because although polyolefin market of petrochemical enterprises inventory low demand, open market rebound, but the downstream stocking near the end, from the supply side pressure continues unabated, Huang Liqiang believes that the late polyolefin trend will be more anxious to substantialvolatility.

daily alcohol market fell after the first rise, the shock of running; on the whole, the December octanol market offer up mainly from the enterprise, the sample mean at the beginning of the month 7105 yuan / ton to 7410 yuan / ton at the end of the month, the monthly increase of 4.29%, with three months as a cycle, a total increase of octanol 13.56%.

Market analysis

Products: large domestic production enterprises by the end of December 30th octanol listing price of 7250-7400 yuan / ton. At the end of Qilu Petrochemical / butyl octanol unit full load running smoothly, foreign quotation 7400 yuan / ton; Hualu-Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Cymbidium lihuayi, the latest offer 7400 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain: in December the overall market turnover atmosphere to improve raw material price, repeated sprint highs, the highest price month broke the 8000 yuan / ton, up 8100 yuan / ton, in crude oil is favorable, propylene downstream quickly opened up mode, driven by the consolidation of enthusiasm to discuss the market promotion, but at the end of month is reduced; the downstream DOP at the end of the market continued downward, the atmosphere remained deserted, the cost of supporting the needs of vulnerable, continue to be weakened, exacerbated the impact of negative factors, bearish expectations increase, manufacturers and holding cargo shipments.

Industry: December plasticizer industry chain prices fell after the first rise, the market is expected in January 2017 finishing the main shock.

Market forecast

In summary, in December the domestic octanol overall market trading atmosphere, manufacturers offer fell after the first rise, the recent downward trend of propylene continuous, octanol market mentality is poor, the downstream DOP market atmosphere, product sales slump, factory cost pressure is high, the conflict gradually increased and octanol, poor start, there are still conflicting rise to octanol. The market outlook is expected to remain weak and octanol market, the market turnover of the atmosphere tends to be light, the market outlook is expected to January 2017 octanol to finishing the main shock, the shock amplitude limited.