light alkali mainstream factory in Hebei in December 23rd 2000 yuan / ton, the heavy alkali mainstream to 2100 yuan / ton. Enterprises operating normally, inventory is still tight, the downstream demand is stable, the latter is expected to continue a soda ash market market consolidation.

Solution: to the production capacity is expected to lift PTA Price

“Chinese PTA The statistical data research and development prospects of the industry “, June 2016 Chinese PTA Shut down in the state of the industry PTA The production capacity of over 14 million tons / year, close to PTA As of June 2016 the total capacity of 1/3, PTA For the total capacity of more than 50 million tons / year, the industry average operating rate of 65%, with the cost and technical advantages of the equipment operating rate is still more than 90%.

Technical progress, approval authority, economic stimulus, credit easing is an important cause of the explosive growth of productivity. Because of the fierce competition, since 2014, China PTA While a large number of industries have a limited production capacity closed, the other side of the new strange phenomenon continues to mount the device put into operation.

From the perspective of technology analysis of PAT1701 contract after nearly half a year of adjustment, prices will gradually converge, to get out of the direction.

The spot market in East china, PTA Trading at 01 yuan near -140/150 contract, warehouse price is slightly higher, at 01 yuan near -110/115 contract. The market sentiment, the market since the talks remain at 4570-4600 yuan; PTA dollar offer intention to remain at $610-630, bid intention near 600-605 trading market remain at $605-608 near trading co..

PTA futures premium spot futures price is restrained, September delivery, PTA registered warehouse receipts rose sharply. Because the market bearish outlook, receipts increased significantly only, and that the market sell-off is heavy, PTA prices to unilateral upward, it is not easy.

In the past PTA dilemma:

1 serious excess capacity, PTA Prices always focus on the cost of operation, the cost of change PTA The price trend is particularly important. The price of PX * 1.17 * 1.02 VAT import tariffs * production ratio of 0.655+ freight 100 yuan / ton, can be calculated. PTA The cost of raw materials (except throwing artificial cost, viewed as a variable cost).

2 PX upstream price edged, Asia overnight CFR offer 802 U.S. dollars / ton (+1), with PTA The spot price and variable cost difference found that the difference in 400 yuan / ton, at a very low level. This means that, on the basis of the cost, PTA Decline in the price of space is very limited.

3 downstream polyester plant started relatively stable, maintained at more than 80%, and the downstream polyester plant overall product inventory is low. Overall, October PTA Supply and demand improved, market is still in the inventory level, supply and demand better.

Recently, PTA two giants and Hengli petrochemical itsumori Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons / year in maintenance, Hengli petrochemical itsumori petrochemical device and will restart in the end of the month. Maintenance of the peak has passed, the operating load will gradually rise, as of October 17th, the operating load of the PTA industry is only 64.5%, is at a low level.

It is verified, and the Far East Xianglu petrochemical petrochemical started in the year of the possibility is very low, although the short-term will not have a substantial impact on the supply side, but on the negative effects of market expectations can not be ignored.

In late October the MITSUBISHI 700 thousand tons capacity device and the end of the month or next month at the beginning of Helen Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons of production capacity will continue to restart the device, although the maintenance plan and then 3 million 750 thousand tons itsumori production device, but the peak overhaul is gradually in the past, PTA load level will gradually rise, 11-12 months into the probability of a larger inventory accumulation period.

The day before the meeting of the central rural work conference, after the central economic work conference has an important meeting. The meeting summed up the “13th Five-Year” the first year of the “three rural” work, analysis of the current situation of agriculture in rural areas, the deployment of agricultural and rural work in 2017. The meeting proposed to promote the structural reform of agricultural supply side as the main line of agricultural and rural work. Clear the current and future direction of agricultural and rural work. It is of great significance for us to unify our thinking and understanding, to further enhance the confidence of further promoting the development of agricultural modernization, to cultivate new confidence in the development of agriculture and rural areas, and to speed up the pace of rural reform. We must seriously study, deeply understand and fully implement.

Study and implement the spirit of the central rural work conference, the first thing is to accurately understand and grasp the scientific connotation of agricultural supply side structural reform and the basic meaning. The structural reform of agricultural supply side structural reform is different from the general sense, it is necessary to consider the amount of balance, to achieve a qualitative improvement and sustainable development; it is necessary to adjust the structure, layout adjustment, innovation mechanism and change the way; we should highlight the development of productive forces, but also pay attention to improve the relations of production. Covering a wide range, reaching the level of deep, is a major change in agricultural and rural development ideas.
Improve the quality and efficiency of supply is the main direction.

At present, China’s agriculture has become the main contradiction from the total shortage of structural contradictions. Therefore, the agricultural supply side structural reform can not simply in the current production level for the amount of adjustment, but from the two aspects of industrial system and enhance the flexibility and adaptability of the supply system of demand change, improve agricultural TFP, agricultural supply and demand to achieve a new equilibrium at a higher level. Adhere to the quality of agriculture, accelerate the progress of science and technology innovation management; adhere to strong agricultural benefits, promote the 123 integration and development, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain. Comprehensively improve the overall efficiency of agriculture, so that agriculture has become a competitive advantage of the industry.

Meet the market demand is the ultimate goal. Agricultural supply side structural reform, the ultimate goal is to meet demand”. To change the irrational agricultural supply structure, and to better meet the market demand, we must adhere to market-oriented, give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. Rely on market means to mobilize elements, optimize the allocation, improve efficiency. Let market forces determine structural adjustment, reduce ineffective supply, expand effective supply. The government should place the position, not only for others, nor stand idly by, key is to strengthen policy guidance, strengthen service support, create a good market environment.

Green development is an important background. Green is the nature of agriculture, promoting green development is the basic requirement of structural reform of agricultural supply side. At present, the utilization intensity of agricultural resources in China is too high and the comprehensive utilization of agricultural wastes is insufficient. We should practice the development thought to the people as the center, with the concerns of the masses, increasing green quality agricultural products supply and ecological products supply, to firmly establish the “beautiful scenery is jinshanyinshan awareness, accelerate the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly agriculture, promote agricultural development and ecological environment, improve the coordination of mutual integration and unity.

Promoting farmers’ income is the core goal. The core of “three rural issues” is the problem of farmers. The improvement of agricultural operating efficiency and the increase of farmers’ income is an important measure to examine the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture, and is also the driving force for the reform. Structural reform of the agricultural supply side was unsuccessful, depending on whether the supply system optimization, efficiency is improved, but also depends on whether the farmers income, whether affordable. Structural reform of the supply side of agriculture, farmers should pay attention to, rely on farmers, so that farmers have to live and earn money. Through the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture, effectively improve the comprehensive benefits of agriculture, stable agricultural operating income of the basic income of farmers.

Deepening reform is the fundamental way. Structural reform of the agricultural supply side is a profound change, not only the structure, not the mechanism, we must firmly grasp the main focus of institutional innovation, with the reform of the way to promote structural adjustment. We should vigorously promote the reform of the system and mechanism innovation, improve the mechanism of price formation of agricultural products, improve the institutional mechanisms for the rational allocation of agricultural resources, and improve the system of subsidies to green oriented. Activate the potential resources through institutional innovation, the liberation and development of productive forces in rural areas, the upgrading of traditional energy, fostering the growth of new energy, the formation of more efficient, more effective, more sustainable agricultural supply system.
The process of promoting the structural reform of agricultural supply side is the process of exploring the road of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics.

The Party Central Committee and the State Council from the national level has a clear direction and focus of the work, the country must firmly grasp of the core content of the general requirements of the central authorities and the agricultural supply side structural reform, combined with the actual characteristics of industry and agriculture and rural development, follow the market rules and the laws of nature, to the problem oriented, creative work, the agricultural supply side structural deepen reform, create a new situation in the construction of agricultural modernization.

This week, the domestic TDI market weak finishing, light trading market. Offer at the beginning of the week the average ex factory price of 29000 yuan / ton, the weekend average ex factory price of 28728.57 yuan / ton, down 0.94% weeks, nearly three months rose 56.68%.

This week, the domestic TDI market weak finishing. The lack of support, spot supply lax, and buying continued weak industry, pessimistic attitude, bidding to take the goods. Among them, the East China TDI market narrow Yindie, spot supply lax, downstream demand remains weak, holding the goods auction goods to go up the inventory goods in Shanghai about 27500-28000 yuan / ton 26500-27000 yuan / ton, the domestic goods market; TDI weak run in North China, lower demand for light reduction, just need to pay for the poor industry the pessimistic market outlook is expected to more positive shipments, low-priced goods in Shanghai to discuss the inside news, 27500-28000 yuan / ton 26500-27000 yuan / ton, domestic goods.

1, the overall market demand is weak upstream of toluene, the main factory no inventory pressure, weak decline, the industry outlook is cautiously bearish, buying market downturn, East China toluene narrow finishing industry, lack of confidence in the market outlook, the market trading stalemate; Southern China toluene Market different wait-and-see atmosphere light; North China area and downstream businesses demand Co. the mood is not high, the purchase, the real single talks deadlocked;

2, enter the traditional off-season market continues to stabilize the main weak, traders outlook lack of confidence by weak run, environmental inspection, part of the downstream plant shutdown, demand Guadan, discuss the center of gravity.

This week, the domestic TDI market weakness consolidation. The lack of support, coupled with the traditional off-season to downstream demand volume, holding the goods auction floor price to take the goods, buying success, continued weak downstream of the field of view, thicker atmosphere, the industry more actively cleaning up inventory based delivery.

Domestic ethylene oxide plant this week generally offer up, or in the 300-500 yuan / ton.

The normal EO plant, by a single production, accompanying delivery. Follow up EO downstream cautious, sharply reduced orders, production was mainly. With the weather getting cold, plus the national environmental protection policy to suppress the EO downstream market weak demand, traders purchase cautious, wait-and-see.

Market forecast The ethylene oxide Market to maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

in October 18th, domestic urea prices showed stable trend, local manufacturers rose slightly. Shandong area urea market temporarily stabilized, the new single turnover slowed down significantly, the majority still for pre orders; at the time of small particles, large particles 1240-1300 yuan / ton to 1300 yuan / ton, businesses cautious on the city; Linyi market wholesale price of 1300-1320 yuan / ton 1280-1300 yuan / ton, Heze. Henan, the main supply to individual manufacturers, compensatory growth of 20 yuan, is now the mainstream factory price 1260-1280 yuan / ton, the majority of transactions can negotiate market trading in Zhengzhou, Shangqiu; tepid. Hebei urea 1210-1230 yuan / ton, a small amount for export, for the rest of the surrounding. Jiangsu Arabica 1300-1380 yuan / ton, large particles of a single, stable export set in Hong Kong shipping, Xuzhou, Pizhou 1250-1270 yuan / ton, Yancheng 1340 yuan / ton. Hunan and Hubei unitoperahon is not high, the basic balance between production and sales of manufacturers, the factory price 1300-1350 yuan / ton, concessions, Hunan province the source station more than 1330-1400 yuan / ton, the turnover of more 1320-1400 yuan / ton outbound goods.

At present, market, enterprise, or to the parking overhaul, the short term will not resume immediately, so the operating rate continues to remain low for the market as a bottom support. But because the downstream demand is not stable, resulting in urea market volatility operation. In the short term is expected to be dominated by urea market stability, local strong run.

supply by the contraction of butadiene prices rose, the long-term demand is still strong. National Day after domestic manufacturers supply prices of butadiene and raised during the holiday outside the market soared, driven by the domestic market, the current price has doubled compared to last year lows. Application of butadiene rubber, is mainly downstream of ABS resin, the automotive industry is the main requirement of the application, in recent years the overall trend of China’s synthetic rubber and ABS resin to yield, and the cars will drive the rubber demand continues to grow, the long-term demand for butadiene is expected to stabilize. Shell Singapore announced in late September butadiene unit force majeure caused by short-term tight supply in Asia butadiene market, promote butadiene prices single week rose $200 / ton. The external market changes driven by domestic product prices, compared with the August average price of domestic butadiene, has risen more than 4000 yuan / ton. We believe that in the tight supply situation, short-term butadiene prices are expected to rise further. The relevant standard recommended Huajin shares, the company has approximately 100 thousand tons / year butadiene yield, low production cost, good profit.

China September natural gas imports 5 million 730 thousand tons, an increase of 72%. The General Administration of customs data released on Thursday, September China natural gas imports 5 million 730 thousand tons, an increase of 72%, an increase of 73%. The strong winter demand has driven Singapore liquefied natural gas spot prices rose to the highest level since January. Chinese plans to 2020 will be the natural gas in the energy consumption in the proportion increased to 10%, and reduced the price of natural gas to stimulate consumption in the last year. According to the NDRC statistics, this year 1-8 month, China natural gas demand growth of 7.5%. With the growth of the natural gas demand and price reform, the future in the production,

transportation, sales and other links is expected to break the three barrels of oil monopoly, to get involved in the field of private enterprises from a slice.

In October 19th, the PVC commodity index was 87.41, unchanged from yesterday, is the highest point in the 100 cycle (2011-09-05) fell 12.59% compared with December 20, 2015, the lowest point of 58.27 rose 50.01%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far)
North China PVC market Qilu Chemical City Qilu S700 7200 yuan / ton, S1000 7150 yuan / ton from mentioning. Electric stone 6530-6570 yuan / ton to. Linyi area 6720 yuan / ton to. Hebei 6630 yuan / ton from. Tianjin area 6670 yuan / ton from the warehouse to mention.

PVC market in Southern China 5 type carbide method mainstream price 7150-7250 yuan / ton; Erdos type 8 7120 yuan / ton, 5 type sealing disc; the king is 7050 yuan / ton to 7050 yuan / ton; Thailand; Hengtong 1000 reported 7020 yuan / ton; day to 7020 yuan / ton, Yili 7020 yuan / ton, Dongxing 7000 Gandhi yuan / ton; 7050 yuan / ton; East Hope, issued a letter of 7050 yuan / ton; Dagu 1000 reported 7300 yuan / ton, 700/800 7250 yuan / ton; 1300 reported 7330 yuan / ton.